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Timothy Kemp

Timothy Kemp's Public Library

  • And then she moved on to the heart of the matter. “If your main claim to be president is your business, then let’s look at your business,” she said, before mentioning that there was an architect in the debate hall audience who Trump had refused to pay. “The thousands of people you have stiffed over the course of your business deserve some apology,” Clinton declared. She threw another punch when she brought up the fact that Trump has taken business bankruptcy six times.

  • 5. Pacing and Leading: Trump always takes the extreme position on matters of safety and security for the country, even if those positions are unconstitutional, impractical, evil, or something that the military would refuse to do. Normal people see this as a dangerous situation. Trained persuaders like me see this as something called pacing and leading. Trump “paces” the public – meaning he matches them in their emotional state, and then some. He does that with his extreme responses on immigration, fighting ISIS, stop-and-frisk, etc. Once Trump has established himself as the biggest bad-ass on the topic, he is free to “lead,” which we see him do by softening his deportation stand, limiting his stop-and-frisk comment to Chicago, reversing his first answer on penalties for abortion, and so on. If you are not trained in persuasion, Trump look scary. If you understand pacing and leading, you might see him as the safest candidate who has ever gotten this close to the presidency. That’s how I see him.

    So when Clinton supporters ask me how I could support a “fascist,” the answer is that he isn’t one. Clinton’s team, with the help of Godzilla, have effectively persuaded the public to see Trump as scary. The persuasion works because Trump’s “pacing” system is not obvious to the public. They see his “first offers” as evidence of evil. They are not. They are technique.

  • Iran has reportedly dismissed the idea of a freeze, reiterating that Tehran still aspires to reach pre-sanctions production levels

  • But a behavioural analysis suggested by Chicago Fed economist Leonardo Melosi presents a different view. If people think of the central bank as having privileged information about the economy and its future, the bank can mistakenly send the wrong message.

     

    "When they set low interest rates, that suggests to the public that the Fed is pessimistic about the future state of the economy," says Petersen. That has the perverse effect of convincing people and businesses "to save more and spend less."

  • While what he calls "can-of-soup inflation" — normal price inflation measured by the consumer price index — remains weak, low interest rates have caused an explosion in asset inflation. House prices, for instance, have gone through the roof.

     

    While young people assume can-of-soup inflation will stay flat, until recently their perception has been that interest rates will stay low and house-price inflation will stay high. 

  • As Milanovic makes clear, this puts public policy at a very caustic crossroads. “Politicians in the West,” he writes, “who pushed for greater reliance on markets in their own economies and the world after the Reagan-Thatcher revolution could hardly have expected that the much-vaunted globalization would fail to deliver palpable benefits to the majority of their citizens—that is, precisely those whom they were trying to convince of the advantages of neoliberal policies compared with more protectionist regimes.”

  • Because surrogacy is legal but not regulated, surrogates like Divya are subject to exploitation by middlemen, clinics and would-be parents, say women's health advocatesLast month, India lost another opportunity to regulate its multimillion-dollar surrogacy industry, as the country’s Parliament failed to pass the Assisted Reproductive Technique bill, or ART, during its winter session, citing a lack of time. Critics of the bill say it doesn’t do enough to protect surrogates, but most agree that it would be better than nothing.

  • "The biggest losers (other than the very poorest 5 percent), or at least the 'non-winners,' of globalization were those between the 75th and 90th percentiles of the global income distribution whose real income gains were essentially nil," according to Milanovic. "These people, who may be called a global upper-middle class, include many from former Communist countries and Latin America, as well as those citizens of rich countries whose incomes stagnated."
  • "While globalization, immigration and the free market have strong support from the winners of these themes – the plutonomists and the highly educated, in our view they seem to have underestimated the frustration of developed market middle and working classes," write Equity Strategists Ajay Singh Kapur and Ritesh Samadhiya. "We think Brexit could just be the first surprise in a re-calibration of the world away from globalization towards more inward looking policymaking. Away from Wall Street and more towards Main Street. Away from financial asset reflation to more income support and wage inflation."
  • Get Ready to See This Globalization 'Elephant Chart' Over and Over Again - Bloomberg

  • TERRORISM, Russian adventurism, chaos in the Middle East and the possibility of a President Donald Trump: it is hardly surprising that the European Union wants to put defence and security at the top of its agenda

  • Now a small subsidiary of Google named Jigsaw is about to release an entirely new type of response: a set of tools called Conversation AI. The software is designed to use machine learning to automatically spot the language of abuse and harassment—with, Jigsaw engineers say, an accuracy far better than any keyword filter and far faster than any team of human moderators. “I want to use the best technology we have at our disposal to begin to take on trolling and other nefarious tactics that give hostile voices disproportionate weight,” says Jigsaw founder and president Jared Cohen. “To do everything we can to level the playing field.”

  • Taken together, we seem to be approaching a new global tipping point that departs from the comfortable assumptions of recent decades that the dynamics of greater global integration were somehow both benign and unstoppable. So when we are seeing the emergence of new forces that threaten to pull the world apart, the very institutions the international community established to bring the world together through cooperative forms of global governance should be more important than ever. Yet the uncomfortable truth is that these institutions have never been weaker. We see this with the World Trade Organization, which has struggled unsuccessfully for more than a decade to bring about a new trade round; the International Monetary Fund, which despite its charter could not handle the global financial crisis and had to yield to the creation of a new, nonmultilateral institution (the G-20) as the premium organization of global financial economic governance; and the U.N. itself, where institutions are rarely empowered by member states to deal effectively with major global challenges.
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