Lark Birdsong's List: Economic

"Aha. Most people who look at the IMF report will, I suspect, read it as telling a tale of government profligacy getting us into a hole. But what the report actually says is quite different: it says that the financial crisis has made us permanently poorer, which among other things reduces revenue, and governments have to tighten their belts to make up for that loss.\n\nThe first thing we might ask is, do we really believe that a financial crisis permanently depresses the trend line of economic growth? Yes, I know that the IMF has statistical analyses that seem to say that; but it's not clear what the mechanism is, it's not what standard growth models would say, so we might at least wonder how sure a thing it is."

"The World Bank's Open Data initiative is intended to provide all users with access to World Bank data. The data catalog is a listing of available World Bank data sources. This listing will continue to be updated as additional data resources are added. These resources include databases, pre-formatted tables and reports. Each of the listings includes a description of the data source and a direct link to that source. Where possible, the databases are linked directly to a selection screen to allow users to select the countries, indicators, and years they would like to search. Those search results can be exported in different formats. Users can also choose to download the entire database directly from the catalog."

Blueprint America is a precedent-setting multi-platform initiative — developed and produced by Thirteen/WNET, and funded by the Rockefeller Foundation — that will harness the power of public broadcasting’s most prestigious programs, primetime documentaries, community and educational outreach, and the web to shine an unyielding spotlight on one of the most critical issues facing our country, yet one that has been under-reported by the traditional news media: America’s decaying and neglected infrastructure. We hear about infrastructure only when it results in a catastrophic bridge collapse or levee failure, but in fact, it is placing our quality of life and our ability to compete in a global economy at risk.

Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

"The spin-meisters continue to package things that ought to incite outrage in anodyne wrappers in the hope no one will look inside. “The new normal” and “structural unemployment” join the universe inhabited by such gems as “extraordinary rendition” and “pre-emptive strike”."

"Today, the Economic Collapse Blog, playing the role of properly investigative skeptic, dug up 12 terrible data points that suggest the NBER should have probably arrived at a less rosy-sounding conclusion:"

"The nation’s economic woes boil down to this. Compared with a healthy economy, about 7 million working-age people and 5 percent of the nation’s industrial capacity are sitting idle, not producing what they could. The economy is growing again, but at a rate — less than 2 percent in recent months — that’s too slow to keep up with a population that keeps increasing and workers who keep getting more efficient."

"The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program produces data on job openings, hires, and separations. "

"This Yahoo Pipes Search Product provides recent news alerts with information on a change in a currency’s value compared to another currency. Enter the currency of interest in the box and then click “Run Pipe”."

"Let’s start with the fundamental concept of opportunity cost.

The biggest cost most students undertake in earning a college degree is the cost of their own time and effort. That cost, though, unlike tuition costs, can’t be looked up on any college or government Web site. To assess it, we need to figure out what the time a student devotes to college work is worth. The most reasonable way to approximate that cost is to ask what the student could sell her time for if she weren’t devoting it to college. For a student who goes to college full-time, the earnings she gives up (the opportunity cost of her time) will be roughly what somebody at her education level could earn after taxes in a full time job (less any labor market earnings while she is in school). Accumulated over four years, that is a pretty substantial number, on the order of $60,000 to $100,000, depending on a student’s location, the overall job market, and the student’s personal characteristics—significantly outpacing four years’ tuition at most colleges in the U.S."

"Another basic concept central to economic analysis is the concept of marginal cost (as well as marginal revenue and marginal benefit) in contrast to average cost (or revenue or benefit). Most of life’s (and public policy’s) choices are not really a matter of “all or none” but of “more and less.” Making decisions based on absolutes, on whether something is “good” or “bad,” can lead down many counterproductive paths. This lesson is particularly important at this time of intense focus on the federal budget and also on the budgets of colleges and universities.

The question of where budget cuts will do the least harm is very different from the question of ranking our policy priorities on an absolute scale. Few people would suggest that we should zero out the national defense budget and leave our security totally in the hands of private individuals. But that doesn’t mean that cutting the defense budget is a bad idea. The question is whether the last few dollars we are spending on the military are buying

and how much we would lose (or gain) from a small decline (or increase) in federal funding for students.....

"In the past two years, two dangerous episodes of financial instability and sudden changes in market dynamics have hit the world economy. More are likely, because the global economy is out of balance in several respects as it emerges from the crisis, particularly in terms of sovereign debt and the structure of global demand.

Systemic risks drive most crises, and pose a challenge for several reasons. First, they are not easy to detect with confidence, and are even more difficult to prove. Second, predicting the exact timing of a break point (when bubbles burst, markets lock up, and credit freezes) is, and will likely remain, beyond our ability. Finally, crises are highly non-linear events, which means that they occur without much warning.

Periodic outbreaks of instability impose high social costs on those who had the least to do with causing them. If repeated, this pattern may erode confidence in financial markets and regulators, which could well lead to heavy-handed regulation, the expansion of the state, and retrenchment from globalization.

But the problem is even more serious. The financial and economic crisis is morphing into a sovereign debt crisis in advanced countries. Financial and economic imbalance can lead to dangerous fiscal imbalance, as tax revenues plunge and social insurance and bailout expenditures rise. The International Monetary Fund suggests that as much as 75% of the “fiscal stimulus” in the advanced countries comprises non-discretionary counter-cyclical measures."

GDP and the Economy: Second Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2011 (PDF)
Real GDP rose 1.0 percent after rising 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Imports slowed, federal government spending turned up, and business investment picked up. Consumer spending slowed. "

"Gross Domestic Product by State (GDP by State) Interactive Map"

"The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has updated its advance estimates of per capita real GDP by metropolitan area and per capita personal income by metropolitan area for 2000-2010 to incorporate the newly available intercensal county population estimates released by the US Census Bureau on September 28, 2011. The remaining local area per capita personal income estimates will not be revised at this time. In April 2012, BEA will release revised personal income estimates for 2008-2009 and estimates of per capita personal income for 2000-2009, along with new estimates for 2010, for all local areas.

The following tables have been updated:
Per capita real GDP by state
Per capita real GDP by metropolitan area"

"But we see quite the opposite right now, because people at all levels of educational attainment have experienced a substantial increase in unemployment, as shown in Fig. 2. In fact, if one compares the percentage increase in unemployment by category of educational attainment, it is striking what a high percentage increase in unemployment has occurred in each category. This is consistent not with the “mismatch” dynamic of structural unemployment but with a story of weak demand throughout the economy."