Lots of hand waving, no hard facts. Nice read, thought provoking, it points how the future could be, but not entirely convincing.
This link has been bookmarked by 127 people . It was first bookmarked on 19 Aug 2008, by Scott Ashwell.
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29 Sep 11
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11 Dec 10
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30 Oct 10
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19 Oct 10
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02 Aug 09
Kay Cunningham'There have already been several attempts at copying the old-fashioned "files and folders" desktop interface to the Web, but they have not caught on. Imitations desktops to-date have simply been clunky and slow imitations of the real-thing at best. Others have been overly slick. But one thing they all have in common: None of them have nailed it. People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the future - what some have called "the Webtop" - still has yet to be invented.'
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29 Jul 09
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Forget about shared folders -- that is an outmoded paradigm. Instead, the new metaphor will be interactive shared spaces. These shared spaces will be more like wikis than folders. They will be permission-based environments where one or many contributors can meet, interact synchronously or asynchronously, to work on information and other tasks together.
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16 Jun 09
David WarlickEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, G
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18 Apr 09
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19 Feb 09
Gary EdwardsExcellent commentary from Nova Spivak; about as well thought out a discussion as i've ever seen concerning the future of the desktop. Nova sees the emergence of a WebOS, most likely based on JavaScript. This article set off a fire storm of controversy and discussion, but was quickly lost in the dark days of late August/September of 2008, where news of the subsequent collapse of the world financial system and the fear filled USA elections dominated everything. Too bad. this is great stuff.
..... "Everything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications, led by companies such as Salesforce.com, and this process seems to be accelerating. In addition, hosted remote storage for individuals and enterprises of all sizes is now widely available and inexpensive. As these trends continue, what will happen to the desktop and where will it live?"
.... Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?
..... The desktop of the future is going to be a hosted web service
..... The Browser is Going to Swallow Up the Desktop
...... The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention
...... Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders.
...... The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence
....... The desktop of the future is going to have powerful semantic search and social search capabilities built-in
....... Interactive shared spaces will replace folders
....... The Portable Desktop
........ The Smart Desktop
........ Federated, open policies an -
18 Jan 09
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02 Nov 08
Angus HongEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. This is a guest post by Nova Spivack, founder and CEO of Twine. T
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17 Oct 08
Martin LindnerThis requires that our applications and data do not reside on local devices anymore, but rather that they will live in the cloud and be accessible via Web services.
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12 Oct 08
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06 Oct 08
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30 Sep 08
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29 Sep 08
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22 Sep 08
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21 Sep 08
Michel Bauwensjust about the best overview and prediction I have seen: "what will happen to the desktop and where will it live? This is a guest post by Nova Spivack"
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15 Sep 08
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14 Sep 08
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11 Sep 08
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09 Sep 08
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07 Sep 08
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06 Sep 08
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People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface.
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The desktop of the future is going to be more concerned with helping users manage information overload - particularly the overload caused by change. In this respect, it is going to feel more like an RSS feed reader or a social news site than a directory.
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Interactive shared spaces will replace folders
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One of the biggest enabling technologies that will be necessary is a federated model for sharing meta-data about policies and permissions on data. I
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01 Sep 08
Ton ZijlstraSome trends/views on the role of desktops. I never use mine anymore. My browser is my starting point. Some interesting remarks on the effect of pushing everything into the cloud.
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People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC
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The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the future - what some have called "the Webtop" - still has yet to be invented.
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there has to be some kind of place that we consider to be our personal "home" and "workspace" -- but it's not going to live on any one device.
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This requires that our applications and data do not reside on local devices anymore, but rather that they will live in the cloud and be accessible via Web services.
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. Instead, all devices will synch with the cloud, where your applications, data and desktop workspace state will live as a unified, hosted service. Your desktop will appear on whatever device you login to, just as you left it wherever you last accessed it.
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If these trends continue, will the browser eventually swallow up or simply replace the desktop? Yes. In fact, it will probably happen very soon. There just isn't any reason to have a desktop outside the browser anymore. What we think of as "the desktop" is really just a perspective on our information and applications - it's really just another "page" or context in our digital lives.
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As our digital lives evolve out of the old-fashioned desktop into the browser-centric Web environment we will see a shift from organizing information spatially (directories, folders, desktops, etc.) to organizing information temporally (feeds, lifestreams, microblogs, timelines, etc.)
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29 Aug 08
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Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today? No. There have already been several attempts at copying the old-fashioned "files and folders" desktop interface to the Web, but they have not caught on. Imitations desktops to-date have simply been clunky and slow imitations of the real-thing at best. Others have been overly slick. But one thing they all have in common: None of them have nailed it. People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the future - what some have called "the Webtop" - still has yet to be invented.
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Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today? No. There have already been several attempts at copying the old-fashioned "files and folders" desktop interface to the Web, but they have not caught on. Imitations desktops to-date have simply been clunky and slow imitations of the real-thing at best. Others have been overly slick. But one thing they all have in common: None of them have nailed it. People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the future - what some have called "the Webtop" - still has yet to be invented.
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28 Aug 08
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26 Aug 08
Ruth ParlinPeople don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the fut
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25 Aug 08
Djiezes KraaijstThe Future of the Desktop
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we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps
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People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC. The Web is an entirely different medium than the desktop and it requires a new kind of interface. The desktop of the future - what some have called "the Webtop" - still has yet to be invented.
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Is the desktop even going to exist anymore as the Web becomes increasingly important? Yes, there has to be some kind of place that we consider to be our personal "home" and "workspace"
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This requires that our applications and data do not reside on local devices anymore, but rather that they will live in the cloud and be accessible via Web services.
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Your desktop will appear on whatever device you login to, just as you left it wherever you last accessed it. This shift harkens back to previous attempts to revive thin-client computing
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So instead of launching the browser from the desktop, it makes more sense to launch the desktop from the browser. In this way of thinking, the desktop is really just our home page - the place where we do our work and keep up with our world.
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The desktop of the future is going to be more concerned with helping users manage information overload
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In order to cope with the overwhelming complexity of our digital lives, we are going to increasingly rely on tools that help us manage our attention more productively -- rather than tools that simply help us manage our information.
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The Webtop is going to be more socially oriented than desktops of today -- it will have built-in messaging and social networking, as well as social-media sharing, collaborative filtering, discussions, and other community features.
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24 Aug 08
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23 Aug 08
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22 Aug 08
Ludwig GatzkeIs the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?
interface webtop webos technology trends browser cloudcomputing desktop imp
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21 Aug 08
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20 Aug 08
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Ognyan KulevEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones ...
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insnet insnetEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications, led by companies such as Salesforce.com, and this process seems to be accelerating. In addition, hosted remote storage for individuals and enterprises of all sizes is now widely available and inexpensive. As these trends continue, what will happen to the desktop and where will it live?
This is a guest post by Nova Spivack, founder and CEO of Twine. This is the final version of an article Spivack has been working on in his public Twine. -
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Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders.
As we move into an era where content creation and distribution become almost infinitely cheap, the scarcest resources will no longer be storage or bandwidth, it will be attention. The pace of information creation and distribution continues to accelerate and there is no end in sight, yet the cognitive capabilities of the individual human brain are finite and we are already at our limits.
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Keith KirkwoodThe focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention
As our digital lives evolve out of the old-fashioned desktop into the browser-centric Web environment we will see a shift from organizing information spatially (directories, folders, desktops, etc.) to organizing information temporally (feeds, lifestreams, microblogs, timelines, etc.). The Web is constantly changing and the biggest challenge is not finding information, it is keeping up with it.
The desktop of the future is going to be more concerned with helping users manage information overload - particularly the overload caused by change. In this respect, it is going to feel more like an RSS feed reader or a social news site than a directory. The focus will be on helping the user to manage and keep up with all the stuff flowing in and out of the their environment. The interface will be tuned to help the user understand what the trends are, rather than just on how things are organized.-
The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention
As our digital lives evolve out of the old-fashioned desktop into the browser-centric Web environment we will see a shift from organizing information spatially (directories, folders, desktops, etc.) to organizing information temporally (feeds, lifestreams, microblogs, timelines, etc.). The Web is constantly changing and the biggest challenge is not finding information, it is keeping up with it.
The desktop of the future is going to be more concerned with helping users manage information overload - particularly the overload caused by change. In this respect, it is going to feel more like an RSS feed reader or a social news site than a directory. The focus will be on helping the user to manage and keep up with all the stuff flowing in and out of the their environment. The interface will be tuned to help the user understand what the trends are, rather than just on how things are organized.
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Add Sticky NoteThe Future of the Desktop
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The Portable Desktop
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19 Aug 08
Tania Shekothe desktop of the future.
All about how important it will be to locate relevant information efficiently; how social networks' information is valuedWeb2.0 Future cloud blog technology IT privacy ReadWriteWeb Web search information internet 2008 article theory trends
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Joseph KrausIs the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?
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Brian BeaverIs the desktop even going to exist anymore as the Web becomes increasingly important? Yes, there has to be some kind of place that we consider to be our personal "home" and "workspace" -- but it's not going to live on any one device.
semantic search web future trends desktop technology internet web2.0 privacy
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Bertrand DuperrinEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications, led by companies such as Salesforce.com, and this process seems to be accelerating. In addition, hosted remote storage for individuals and enterprises of all sizes is now widely available and inexpensive. As these trends continue, what will happen to the desktop and where will it live?
desktop software web web2.0 mobility workenvironment webOS socialsearch
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Add Sticky Notebet right and you could find the motherlode before the rest of the world and gain valuable advantages by being first. Daytraders are focused on discovering and keeping track of trends. It's a very different focus and activity from being a librarian, and it's what we are all moving towards.
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This suggests that the point of filtering through an enormous amount of information, or with "leveraging the collective intelligence" is to get ahead, in business, presumably. But this model of competition seems as old-fashioned as the filing cabinet model of data storage.
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Forget about shared folders -- that is an outmoded paradigm. Instead, the new metaphor will be interactive shared spaces. These shared spaces will be more like wikis than folders. They will be permission-based environments where one or many contributors can meet, interact synchronously or asynchronously, to work on information and other tasks together.
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Yvonne MurtaghEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift ... The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence.
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Alan Vonlanthena range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing rang
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Scott AshwellEverything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps.
Public Stiky Notes
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