This link has been bookmarked by 108 people . It was first bookmarked on 07 Oct 2006, by bill giltner.
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17 Oct 12
Bob JacquesHere are some of the pieces I've written over the years that best illustrate what I'm thinking about.
Core Concepts
Ethical Futurism
Neodicy
Geoethical Principles
Open Source Scenario Planning
The Open Future
Foresight
Long-Run vs Long-Lag
Futurism and its Discontents
Ideas
The Griefer Future
The Participatory Decepticon
Fifteen Minutes into the Future
Misinformation, Identity, and Power in the Internet Age
An Eschatological Taxonomy
The Earth's Environment -
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In other words, the opposite of "complex" is not "simple," the opposite of "complex" is "isolated."
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Charles van der Haegen"Reminder: Open the Future is on a temporary hiatus while I work on a book. I will post now and again, but may go for a few weeks at a time without updating. If you're new to the site, check out the "Start Here" links to the right. Thanks.
The Future Isn't What It Used to Be (TL;DR version)
Technology foresight has been stuck for the last 10-20 years; we need to be paying more attention to social-cultural futurism."-
e, over the past decade and very likely to continue for some time, are primarily socio-cultural.
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we remain woefully primitive in our abilities to examine and forecast changes to cultural, political, and social dynamics.
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Most foresight work is done as a commercial function, even if done by non-profit organizations.
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cultural/political/social futures are messy, extremely unpredictable, and partisan in ways that make both practitioners and clients extremely vulnerable to accusations of bias.
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hat we should have "strong opinions, weakly held" -- that is, we should not be locked into unchanging perspectives on the future
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strong connection to the topics of interest to politically-dominant males.
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In many respects, futurism in the early 21st century seems very similar to historiography in the post-WW2 era: still dominated by traditional stories of power, but slowly beginning to realize that there's more to the world.
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Similarly, futurism can be -- needs to be -- about more than transformative, transcendental technologies
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There's no doubt that social futurism is significantly more difficult than techno futurism
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Julia Pichlerhttp://www.openthefuture.com/2010/09/full_comments_to_nature.html
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Adam DuusJamais Casco
futures blog culture politics news technology sustainability key.thinkers myth
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eva durallJamais Cascio writes about the intersection of emerging technologies, environmental dilemmas, and cultural transformation, specializing in the design and creation of plausible scenarios of the future.
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Steve SethNick Bostrom Ph.D., Director, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
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he popularity of the term "Singularity" has undermined its narrative value. Its use in a discussion is almost guaranteed to become the focus of a debate, one that rarely changes minds. This is especially unfortunate because the underlying idea is, in my view, a useful tool for thinking about how we'll face the challenges of the 21st century.
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The details of the various eschatological stories vary considerably, of course, and this general framework matches each version imperfectly. Nonetheless, this pattern -- a predicted transformation creates a new world due to forces beyond our ken -- recurs.
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as we get smarter, our aggregate capacity to further improve the relevant sciences and technologies also gets better; in short, we start to make ourselves smarter, faster. At a certain point in the future, probably within the next few decades, the smarter, faster, smarter, faster cycle will have allowed us to remake aspects of our world -- and, potentially, ourselves -- in ways that would astonish, confuse, and maybe even frighten earlier generations.
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Regardless of what one thinks of the prospects for strong AI, it's hard to look at the state of biotechnology, cognitive science, and augmentation technologies without seeing this scenario as distinctly plausible.
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the term "Singularity." It made for a good hook for an idea, but increasingly seems like a stand-in for an argument
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Todd Suomelablog by Jamais Cascio
weblog-individual futurism scenario-planning future import-delicious
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Jay Duggerwith enough minds, all tomorrows are visible blog of Jamais Cascio
blog foresight futurism futurist transhumanism for:amflux for:anissimov for:armchair_anarchist for:bkdelong for:dv82xl for:gdvorsky for:rogerwaggener
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Carl SpiesA recurring theme in his current writing is the importance of openness, transparency and flexibility as a toolkit for social and technological progress.
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