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02 Feb 12
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24 Sep 11
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21 Nov 10
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01 Mar 10
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.
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MIT's Technology Review (h
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the Online Computer Library Center (OCLC) has conducted one environmental scan every few years, the most recent being in 2000 and 2003.4
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The EDUCAUSE Evolving Technologies Committee i
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One of the best-known Delphi projects in higher education is the Horizon Project (http://www.nmc.org/horizon).
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- The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020.
- The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness.
- Talk and touch user-interfaces with the Internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.
- Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain in a continuing "arms race," with the crackers who will find ways to copy and share content without payment.
- The divisions between "personal" time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who's connected, and the results will be mixed in terms of social relations.
- Next-generation engineering of the network to improve the current Internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild the architecture from scratch.10
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A third project using the Delphi method is the EDUCAUSE Top Teaching and Learning Challenges 2009 (http://www.educause.edu/eli/Challenges/127397)
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the top-five issues are cast in a different syntactical form, namely that of professional challenges:
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- Creating learning environments that promote active learning, critical thinking, collaborative learning, and knowledge creation
- Developing 21st-century literacies (information, digital, and visual) among students and faculty
- Reaching and engaging today's learner
- Encouraging faculty adoption and innovation in teaching and learning with IT
- Advancing innovation in teaching and learning with technology in an era of budget cuts
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18 Feb 10
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16 Feb 10
Keith HamonThis article will introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.
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This article will introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.
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A set of RSS feeds is one of the best tools that an environmental-scanner can possess.
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15 Feb 10
Michael JohnsonAlexander discusses methods for keeping up with the future of technology and its use in higher education. As her says: "This article will introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.2 These are not hypothetical approaches; they are realized, documented, and applied methods. There is no perfect method; nor has any one approach emerged to overshadow the others. This article will thus explore each for its specific affordances, structures, and practical usage. Together, they represent an aggregate, sector-wide movement that tries to help academics understand the future as it hits the present. Put another way, these future-scanners seek to follow the translation of digital ideas from science fiction to campus reality."
educational technology future directions future educause Technology education emerging apprehending learning emerging_technologies
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environmental scan
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The environmental scan method offers several advantages, starting with the fact that drawing on multiple sources and perspectives can reduce the chances of bias or sample error. The wider the scan, the better will be the chance of hitting the first trace of items that, although small at the moment, could expand into prominence. A further advantage is pedagogical: trying to keep track of a diverse set of domains requires a wide range of intellectual competencies. As new technologies emerge, more learning is required in subfields or entire disciplines, such as nanotechnology or digital copyright policy.
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Disadvantages of this method start from its strengths: environmental scanning requires a great deal of sifting, searching, and analyzing. Finding the proverbial needle in the haystack isn't useful if its significance can't be recognized. Furthermore, the large amount of work necessary for both scanning and analyzing can be daunting, especially for smaller schools or enterprises.
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That complexity demands non-simple responses. Each of the techniques sketched above offers one way of helping groups to think through these emergent forces and to apprehend the future. Crowdsourcing, scenarios, prediction markets, the Delphi method, and environmental scanning are complementary strategies. Using several of these methods can teach us to learn about the future in more sophisticated, pro-active ways. If the methods appear strange, resembling science fiction, perhaps that is a sign of their aptness for the future, since the future often appears strange just before it becomes ordinary—or, in our case, just before it becomes a campus reality. As higher education budgets clamp down and the future hurtles toward us, we need these methods and techniques as allies that can help us to survive . . . and to learn.
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to apprehend the future. Crowdsourcing, sce
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Crowdsourcing, scenarios, prediction markets, the Delphi method, and environmental scanning are complementary strategies. Using several of these methods can teach us to learn about the future in more sophisticated, pro-active ways. If the methods appear strange, resembling science fiction, perhaps that is a sign of their aptness for the future, since the future often appears strange just before it becomes ordinary—or, in our case, just before it becomes a campus reality. As higher education budgets clamp down and the future hurtles toward us, we need these methods and techniques as allies that can help us to survive . . . and to learn.
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12 Feb 10
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11 Feb 10
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09 Feb 10
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30 Jan 10
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29 Jan 10
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21 Dec 09
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06 Nov 09
Wilfred RubensThis article will introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.2 These are not hypothetical approaches; they are realized, documented, and applied methods.
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30 Sep 09
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25 Sep 09
Candace BrownHow can those of us in higher education best understand new technologies? The phrases "emerging technologies" and "evolving technologies" remind us that the digital world is largely in flux. New devices, altered applications, and shifting practices keep c
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03 Sep 09
Gosia StergiosGood overview of forecasting methods/approaches that can be applied to any subject area. Scenarios, prediction markets, Delphi method, environmental scan and other method are compared.
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30 Aug 09
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18 Aug 09
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12 Aug 09
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03 Aug 09
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31 Jul 09
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29 Jul 09
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25 Jul 09
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08 Jul 09
Sally WilsonOutlines (with examples) several methods of determining what is in store for higher ed in terms of information technology. Includes environmental scans, Delphi Method, prediction markets, scenarios, and crowdsourcing.
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07 Jul 09
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This article will introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.2 These are not hypothetical approaches; they are realized, documented, and applied methods. There is no perfect method; nor has any one approach emerged to overshadow the others.
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- Mobiles (time-to-adoption: one year or less)
- Cloud computing (time-to-adoption: one year or less)
- Geo-Everything (time-to-adoption: two to three years)
- The Personal Web (time-to-adoption: two to three years)
- Semantic-Aware Applications (time-to-adoption: four to five years)
- Smart Objects (time-to-adoption: four to five years)8
January 2009 report identified the following technologies:
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- The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020.
- The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness.
- Talk and touch user-interfaces with the Internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.
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- Creating learning environments that promote active learning, critical thinking, collaborative learning, and knowledge creation
- Developing 21st-century literacies (information, digital, and visual) among students and faculty
- Reaching and engaging today's learner
- Encouraging faculty adoption and innovation in teaching and learning with IT
- Advancing innovation in teaching and learning with technology in an era of budget cuts
professional challenges:
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- Augmented Reality: The gap is closing between the Web and the world. Services that know where you are and adapt accordingly will become commonplace. The web becomes fully integrated into every physical environment.
- Data Abundance: There's more data available to us all the time—both the data we produce intentionally and the data we throw off as a by-product of other activities. The web will play a key role in how people access, manage, and make sense of all that data.
- Virtual Identity: People are increasingly expected to have a digital presence as well as a physical one. We inhabit spaces online, but we also create them through our personal expression and participation in the digital realm19
three major trends that we thought would have the biggest impact on the web:
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04 Jul 09
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03 Jul 09
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29 Jun 09
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24 Jun 09
Kay Cunningham'But trying to grapple with what comes next is a deep problem. Doing so is partly a matter of science fiction, which consists, after all, of the stories we tell about the future. Doing so is also an issue of complexity, since each practice, or device, or network, or application comes embedded in a nest of other practices, or devices, or networks, or applications. Emerging technologies are a matter not only of qualitative challenge but also of sheer quantitative overload. Web 2.0, gaming, wireless and mobile devices, virtual worlds, even Web 3.0 in all its unrealized potential—each churns out new developments daily and connects with other domains to ramp up the problem still further.'
change technology education web apps web 2.0 web 3.0 technological change
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22 Jun 09
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21 Jun 09
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12 Jun 09
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cross-population campus group, perhaps organized by a computing committee or the library
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11 Jun 09
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10 Jun 09
Will StewartHow can those of us in higher education best understand new technologies? The phrases "emerging technologies" and "evolving technologies" remind us that the digital world is largely in flux. New devices, altered applications, and shifting practices keep crossing over the horizon—or quietly appearing in our midst.
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05 Jun 09
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02 Jun 09
Lyn ParkerHow can those of us in higher education best understand new technologies?
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01 Jun 09
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31 May 09
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or quietly appearing in our midst.
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Deciding which technologies to support for teaching and learning—and how to support them—depends, first, on our ability to learn about each emerging development.
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If William Gibson was right—"the street finds its own uses for things"—then academic computing needs to be sure of its "street smarts."1
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Doing so is partly a matter of science fiction, which consists, after all, of the stories we tell about the future. Doing so is also an issue of complexity, since each practice, or device, or network, or application comes embedded in a nest of other practices, or devices, or networks, or applications.
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introduce and explore methods for apprehending the future as it applies to the world of higher education and information technology.
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help academics understand the future as it hits the present
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survey that horizon,
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29 May 09
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28 May 09
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