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  • It’s hard to see Weld sticking around if Clinton can give him a better offer. The Johnson-Weld ticket once seemed a good idea -- both two-term Republican former governors who won in Democratic states and fiscal conservatives and social moderates who are more representative of a majority of voters. But it’s become more than a bit awkward. Weld was always the better salesman and Republicans openly pondered why he wasn’t at the top of the ticket, doubting Johnson’s heft from the beginning. Mitt Romney, for example, shopping for an alternative to Trump, wished aloud that Weld was heading the Libertarian ticket instead of Johnson.


  • Clinton, whose team has devoted ample time and resources to attracting the support of Republican defectors, should realize Weld is perhaps her most important GOP target and do all she can to reel him in. If Weld wants to be relevant again he should blow the doors off a ticket that was at best a lark and now is a national joke.


  • “Mr. Trump has never treated women the way Hillary Clinton and her husband did when they worked to destroy Bill Clinton’s accusers,” reads one of the talking points the campaign sent to surrogates on Thursday as the controversy surrounding the story of former Miss Universe Alicia Machado continued to dominate headlines of the race.


  • That data indicates Trump had been hitting or exceeding his benchmarks for nearly a month, but Clinton’s strong debate performance  puts him at risk of barely making or even missing those to come.


  • If polling data continues to show such a bounce, it will likely keep Trump from exceeding his benchmarks and may even put him behind on them. If the debate ends up improving Clinton’s standing by about two points, then Trump will be at a four-point deficit. He would then just barely hit his late September/early October benchmark. If Clinton’s bounce is larger than two points, Trump will miss his benchmarks by a significant amount. He could still win despite missing the benchmarks, but he would have to make up ground more quickly than most of his predecessors have been able to do.


  • Finally, it’s important to note one other feature of the historical data:  Both candidates’ ability to move the polls diminishes as October wears on. If Clinton gets and keeps a decent post-debate bounce, that’s bad news for Trump. In that case, Clinton might be able to simply run out the clock. But if her bounce fades, if Trump regains ground in upcoming debates or if more damaging information about Clinton’s emails come to light, she may be stuck in a close race or at a deficit with little opportunity to improve her standing.

  • On the question of which candidate is fit to be president, the poll identified another big advantage for Clinton: About half of those surveyed say Clinton is qualified. Only a third say Trump is. And many Republicans — a third of them, in fact — say he's not.

  • After Monday’s debate, 62.5 percent of voters said Trump is unqualified to be president, compared with 57 percent who believe Clinton is qualified after years in the public spotlight as first lady, U.S. senator and U.S. secretary of state.

  • About 52 percent of likely voters said Clinton won Monday’s 90-minute slug fest at Hofstra University in New York, while 20 percent said Trump prevailed. Among Trump voters, 45 percent said he won, while 88 percent of Clinton’s voters said she won the debate, Czuba said.

  • One more warning for conservatives who still aren’t convinced. If the next generation is radicalized by Trump being a bad president, they’re not just going to lean left. They’re going to lean regressive, totalitarian, super-social-justice left.


  • Using a modeling technique incorporating Census data and actual reported votes,2Within each state, I began by taking reported votes from official tallies and breaking them down along the lines of the Census estimates of turnout by race and education. I then applied separate Census data on educational attainment within each racial group to estimate white college graduates’ and white non-college-graduates’ shares of the actual and eligible electorates in 2012. I’ve estimated that the vast majority of these non-college nonvoters — 47.1 million — were white. These white no-shows — whom Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics has written extensively about — represent an enormous opportunity for Trump.


  • This demographic cohort, which last showed up in large numbers when Bill Clinton and Ross Perot first ran in 1992 but which apparently didn’t feel any affinity for Obama or Mitt Romney in 2012, dwarfs the pool of 11.5 million Latino nonvoters Hillary Clinton hopes to motivate to the polls. In Florida, where Obama won by about 74,000 votes four years ago, there were 2.5 million eligible non-college-graduate whites who failed to vote, compared to just 725,000 eligible Latinos who skipped the election.


  • But back to the catch: Although Trump may be converting plenty of existing voters to his side, there’s really very little evidence that previous nonvoters are coming out of the woodwork in large numbers for him.


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  • By Wednesday evening, all of the top markets for searches for “register to vote” came in heavily Latino markets in Texas, California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. The same pattern held into Thursday.

  • And even if it does hold, the Google Trends data doesn’t prove that there will be a big surge in Hispanic registration. We’ll have to wait a few weeks for updated voter registration data.

  • But this year, newly registered voters have tended to be more Hispanic than in past years. According to data from Catalist, a Democratic firm, about 12 percent of newly registered voters were estimated to be Hispanic, versus 10 percent by the same point in 2012.

  • While voters must attest to citizenship upon registering online or registering to vote at the Department of Licensing Office, Washington state doesn't require proof of citizenship. Therefore elections officials say the state's elections system operates, more or less, under an honor system.

  • In a conference call with surrogates Wednesday afternoon, Trump aides made clear the Republican nominee is upset that his allies publicly acknowledged they pushed him to change his preparation and tactics before his next bout with Hillary Clinton. And he wants them to stop it immediately.
    • Trump wants his supporters to make an energetic defense of his performance and refuse to concede that he didn't nail it.
    • Aides and advisers hoped Trump's refusal to participate in traditional debate preparation sessions -- instead favoring the impromptu, off-the-cuff approach that helped him through the GOP primaries -- might be eased after Monday night.
      One ally described Trump as the kind of guy who can't simply be told a stove is hot -- he has to touch it to see for himself.

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    • But when supposedly smart guys like Newt Gingrich start saying things like "Miss Universe contestants aren't supposed to put on 60 pounds" you're dumb to the point of political malfeasance. For when you have two overweight white guys in their 70s with six wives between them fat shaming women, you've pretty much played into every liberal stereotype of conservatives ever.

    • Though voters agreed Clinton was the clear victor, a majority of voters overall said their opinions of either candidate did not change as a result of the debate.

      • But it’s curious that Hannity waited so long to share this memory, when for the past seven months skeptics have been pointing to the Sept. 11, 2002, Stern interview as proof that Trump has been revising history. The Fox News host has been among Trump’s foremost on-air boosters, and has also provided private strategic counsel to the campaign: “a little advice,” Trump conceded to me when we spoke by phone last week. He acknowledged their friendship but added: “It’s more of a professional relationship. He really likes what I’m saying.”


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    • "Fox and Friends" cohost Steve Doocy said he found it  "interesting" Trump won such polls, though he did note that they  were unscientific. 


    • "Fox and Friends" cohost Steve Doocy said he found it  "interesting" Trump won such polls, though he did note that they  were unscientific.
    • Martha MacCallum, cohost of "America's Newsroom," also cited the  online polls, making no mention that they were conducted online  and that all were unscientific. 


        "A lot of polls show him winning last night," she said.  "Fascinating, right? It's fascinating." 


    • Hannity also delivered a quarter high in viewers since   the program launched in the 10PM/ET timeslot in 2013. The program   averaged 2.5 million in total viewers (+43%) and 564,000 (+39%) in the   key demo. 


    • “I have it in front of me. Time magazine, Drudge Report, CNBC, The Hill, CBS — the only one that has Hillary winning is CNN, and they are the 'Clinton News Network.”


    • Dana Blanton, the vice president of public-opinion research at  Fox News, explained in the memo obtained by Business Insider that  "online 'polls' like the one on Drudge, Time, etc. where people  can opt-in or self-select … are really just for fun." 

        "As most of the publications themselves clearly state, the sample  obviously can't be representative of the electorate because they  only reflect the views of those Internet users who have chosen to  participate," Blanton wrote. 

    • "Another problem — we know some campaigns/groups of supporters  encourage people to vote in online polls and flood the results,"  she wrote. "These quickie click items do not meet our editorial  standards." 


    • A representative for Fox News noted both Hannity and Kilmeade are  hosts in the network’s lineup of opinion programming. The  representative also pointed out that Hannity has publicly  disclosed that he has endorsed Trump. 

    • drilling the Republican nominee on crucial answers, facts and counterattacks
    • ways to whack Mrs. Clinton on issues even if he is not asked about them.
    • they need to convince him that he can do better than he did in the first one

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    • “I was also holding back, “ Trump said, in the familiar wording of a vanquished schoolyard bully. “I didn’t want to do anything to embarrass her.”


    • A month later the judge went on national television to allege that Machado had threatened to kill him if he indicted Sbert.

      Judge Maximiliano Fuenmayor said on national television that she threatened 'to ruin my career as a judge and ... kill me', the Associated Press reported.

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