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Harold Jarche

Harold Jarche's Public Library

Aug 26, 15

1. There are two kinds of systems and problems: ordered and unordered.

2. Ordered problems are predictable and knowable, unordered problems are unpredictable and unknowable. It is important to understand this point deeply, because this is a fundamental distinction that has massive implications.

3. Ordered systems have a reliable causality, that is, causes and effects can be known, and usually display a clear finish line. Sometimes this causality is obvious to everyone, such as turning a tap to control a flow of water. Sometimes this causality is only obvious to experts, such as knowing what causes your car engine to start making strange noises.

4. Unordered systems throw up complex problems and chaos. Complex problems such as poverty and racism, have causality that that only be understood retrospectively, that is by looking back in time, and they have no discernible finish line. We do a reasonably good job of seeing where it came from, but we can’t look at the current state of a system and predict what will happen next.

5. Chaotic problems are essentially crises in which the causality is so wild, that it doesn’t really matter. For example, in the middle of a riot, it does you no good to understand causes until you can get to safety.

6. Because ordered systems display predictable outcomes, we can more or less design solutions that have a good chance of working. We just need to understand the system well enough and enlist the right experts if it’s unclear what to do. Once we have a solution, it will be transferable from one context to another. Designing and building a car, for example.

7. Because unordered systems are unpredictable we need to design solutions that are coherent with the context. For example, addressing the role of stigma in the health care system requires a solution to emerge from the system itself.

8. Complex problems can be addressed by creating many small probes: experiments that tell us about what works and what doesn’t. When a probe has a good result, we amplify it. When it has a poor result, we dampen it. Strategies for amplification and dampening depend on the context, and the problem.

9. In ordered systems, linear solutions with well managed resources and outcomes will produce desired effects. We can evaluation our results against our intentions and address gaps.

10. In complex systems, we manage attractors and boundaries and see what happens. An attractor is something that draws the system towards it. A boundary is something that contains the work. For example addressing the effects of poverty by creating a micro-enterprise loan program that makes money available for small projects (attractor) and requires that it be paid back by a certain time and in a certain way (boundaries). Then you allow action to unfold and see what happens.

11. When you have a solution in an ordered system that works, you can evaluate it, create a process and a training program around it and export it to different contexts.

12. When you have a solution that works in a complex system, you continue monitor it, adjust it as necessary and extract the heuristics of how it works. Heuristics are basic experience based, operating principles that can be observed and applied across contexts. For example, “provide access to capital for women” provides a heuristic for addressing poverty based on experience. Heuristics must be continually refined or dropped depending on the context."

Aug 26, 15

"Fracking triggered a 4.4-magnitude earthquake in northeastern B.C. last year, CBC News has learned, making it one of world's largest earthquakes ever triggered by the controversial process.

B.C.'s Oil and Gas Commission confirmed the cause of the earthquake in an email statement to CBC this week, saying it was "triggered by fluid injection during hydraulic fracturing."

The 4.4-magnitude quake was felt in Fort St. John and Fort Nelson in August 2014. It was preceded by a 3.8-magnitude earthquake in late July, also caused by fracking.

B.C.'s Oil and Gas Commission told CBC that several companies were doing hydraulic fracturing in the area at the time, and several more were disposing of fracking waste.

But the commission says it was Progress Energy's operations that were "associated with triggering this event."

Hydraulic fracturing, often called fracking, is the process of injecting water, sand and chemicals at high pressure deep underground to break rock and free gas.

Since the 2014 earthquake, Progress Energy has been ordered to reduce the volume of fracking fluid being used, and the company has complied, according to the commission.

As well, new seismic equipment has been set up in the area. No new earthquakes have been detected in the immediate area."

Aug 11, 15

"You need to understand limits of your current knowledge (or, put another way, you need to know when to go looking for new knowledge). This may be as simple of coming across new terms and concepts that you don’t understand, through to having the sensitivity to realise that your lack of progress in a task is due to the knowledge (the ideas and skills) that you’re applying being insufficient, and you need to find a new approach that is based on different knowledge.

You need to be aware of what additional knowledge you might draw on, so that you can you can reach out and pull it in as needed. This is a process of eliminating the unknown unknowns: reading blogs, going to conferences, participating in communities of practice, and even having conversations at the water cooled, so that your aware of the other ideas out there in the community, and other other individuals who are working in related areas. You can only draw on new knowledge if you’re aware that it exists, which means you must invest some time in scanning the environment around you for new ideas and fellow travellers.

You also need the habits of mind – the attitudes and behaviours – that lead you to reach out when you realise that you’re knowledge isn’t up to the task as had, explore the various ideas that you’re aware of (or use this awareness to discover new ideas), and then pull in and learn the knowledge required.

Finally, you need to be working in a context where all this is possible. To many work environments are setup in a way that prevents individuals from either investing time in exploring what is going on around them (and eliminating unknown unknowns), taking time out from the day-to-day to learn what they need to learn on-demand, or from taking what they’ve learnt and doing something different (deviating from the defined, approved and rewarded process)."

Jul 30, 15

"The essence of Van den Berg’s traffic circulation plan, as it came to be called, was that the centre of Groningen would be divided in four sections. For motorists, it would become impossible to go from one section to the other: cars had to take the ring-road around the inner city, whereas cyclists could move freely about on new cycle paths constructed to accommodate them. Driving a car would become a time-consuming affair in the centre of Groningen. In the future, travelling by bike would be a much quicker option."

Jul 28, 15

"Wealth has declined

There’s also a harsh reality behind it: Independent workers simply have less money to spend. Their careers are unpredictable in terms of hours, income, and even location. So when they do spend, they're turning to alternatives like sharing or renting rather than buying. In a recent report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 86% of people surveyed said that using a ride-sharing app or renting out someone's spare room rather than booking a hotel "makes life more affordable." More than 80% said it was "less expensive to share goods than to own them individually." And 43% went as far as to say that "owning, today, feels like a burden."
"The ranks of independent workers continue to grow. But as long as their incomes continue to shrink, so will their spending."

That kind of meaningful independence is a social and economic movement that’s not going away. It's a relief for many of today’s new-wave workers, who can’t afford up-front costs of big-ticket items. But it’s not so helpful in addressing the underlying problem that income inequality in this country is very real and growing worse."

Jul 14, 15

"Evidence continues to mount that the natural gas supply chain carries an enormous amount of environmental baggage as well as community welfare issues.

This week was a particularly bad one for the natural gas industry, with the release of two government reports in the U.S. and one in the U.K."

Jul 07, 15

"nformal learning is the unofficial, impromptu way people learn how to do their jobs. This infographic outlines why we shouldn’t ignore informal learning and describes the models developed by Jay Cross, Dan Pontefract and “70:20:10″, which put a framework around this style of learning. A very interesting read."

Jul 03, 15

"And the majority illusion can occur in all of them. “The effect is largest in the political blogs network, where as many as 60%–70% of nodes will have a majority active neighbours, even when only 20% of the nodes are active,” they say. In other words, the majority illusion can be used to trick the population into believing something that is not true.

That’s interesting work that immediately explains a number of interesting phenomena. For a start, it shows how some content can spread globally while other similar content does not—the key is to start with a small number of well-connected early adopters fooling the rest of the network into thinking it is common.

That might seem harmless when it comes to memes on Reddit or videos on YouTube. But it can have more insidious effects too. “Under some conditions, even a minority opinion can appear to be extremely popular locally,” say Lerman and co. That might explain how extreme views can sometimes spread so easily.

It might also explain the spread of antisocial behavior. Various studies have shown that teenagers consistently overestimate the amount of alcohol and drugs their friends consume. “If heavy drinkers also happen to be more popular, then people examining their friends’ drinking behavior will conclude that, on average, their friends drink more than they do,” say Lermann and co."

Jun 22, 15

"The city attorney combined the network analysis, along with the city's own extensive investigation and was able to get a conviction of key family members. Later, all of one building's tenants filed a civil suit using much of the same evidence and won a sufficient award to allow all of them to move out into decent housing. Several tenants used a part of their award to start businesses.

The common wisdom is that only big business and government use social network analysis. Yet, there are many individuals and groups that are learning the craft, and solving local problems. Although social network analysis can not be learned by reading a book, it does not require a PhD either. Any intelligent person, under the right guidance, and with the proper tools, can apply the methodology to an appropriate problem and gain enormous insight into what was previously hidden."

Jun 22, 15

"Whoever owns the capital will benefit as robots and AI inevitably replace many jobs. If the rewards of new technologies go largely to the very richest, as has been the trend in recent decades, then dystopian visions could become reality. But the machines are tools, and if their ownership is more widely shared, the majority of people could use them to boost their productivity and increase both their earnings and their leisure. If that happens, an increasingly wealthy society could restore the middle-class dream that has long driven technological ambition and economic growth."

Jun 21, 15

"Only humans can rationalize away the obvious."

Jun 08, 15

"Selon moi, cette intelligence, « smartness », s'adosse directement à l'intelligence des utilisateurs, donc des citoyens. La smart city a vocation à rendre possible une prise de décision – des citoyens et acteurs locaux, plus intelligente, car basée sur l'exploitation et l'analyse des données."

Jun 08, 15

"The only way to transfer somatic tacit knowledge to someone is through long term coaching.

He describes Relational Tacit Knowledge, which is about social interaction and how this keeps some knowledge unspoken. Basically its the things you could explain but don't, for one reason or another. It includes secrets, the things you don't know that you know, and the things you can't explain because you don't know what the other party needs to know. This knowledge remains tacit for social reasons, and the work of the knowledge manager is to go through the social barriers and retrieve this knowledge through questioning processes - for example in Knowledge Interviews.

Finally, there is collective tacit knowledge. This is about the way WE work. Its about knowledge held socially and collectively. He gives the example of riding a bike. The mechanics of riding a bike are all about somatic tacit knowledge, but the knowledge of riding a bike in London traffic are collective and tacit; you need to understand the unspoken social conventions, otherwise the taxis and buses will get you. It is the collective tacit knowledge that the interviewer seeks for in team knowledge processes such as After Action Review and Retrospects, and the facilitator seeks to exchange in Peer Assists and Knowledge Exchange meetings."

Jun 08, 15

"In emerging economies such as South Africa there is an amazing statistic: 477,000 job vacancies alongside 344,000 unemployed graduates. This story is echoed across Africa, where the problem is not a shortage of academic research, God knows we have enough of that in the developed world, but youth unemployment. What is known as the youth bulge (by 2050 60% under 25) is already leading to mass youth unemployment and underemployment, leading to social unrest. Witness Boko Haram, which erupted in Nigeria’s poorest state, the state with the highest levels of youth unemployment. Then along comes a gang of religious thugs and offers a gang, a purpose with a gun and a set of radical, fundamentalist beliefs. To what problem is education a solution in Africa? Youth unemployment. Africa does NEED vocational education more than academic education.
"

May 29, 15

"Machines can do some surprising things. But what you really want to know is this: Will your job be around in the future?

We have the "definitive" guide."

What job is hardest for a robot to do? Mental health and substance abuse social workers (found under community and social services). This job has a 0.3 percent chance of being automated. That's because it's ranked high in cleverness, negotiation, and helping others. The job most likely to be done by a robot? Telemarketers. No surprise; it's already happening.

The researchers admit that these estimates are rough and likely to be wrong. But consider this a snapshot of what some smart people think the future might look like. If it says your job will likely be replaced by a machine, you've been warned.

May 28, 15

Top 200 content curation tools - organised and vetted in 34 categories - ready to be used

"Content curation is the art of finding, selecting, contextualizing, personalizing and illustrating relevant information items on a specific topic and for a specific audience "

May 24, 15

"What kind of economic environment would make the best use of the new digital technologies?

McAfee: One that’s conducive to innovation, new business formation, and economic growth. To create it, we need to focus on five things:

The first is education. Primary and secondary education systems should be teaching relevant and valuable skills, which means things computers are not good at. These include creativity, interpersonal skills, and problem solving.

The second is infrastructure. World-class roads, airports, and networks are investments in the future and the foundations of growth.

Third, we need more entrepreneurship. Young businesses, especially fast-growing ones, are a prime source of new jobs. But most industries and regions are seeing fewer new companies than they did three decades ago.

A fourth focus is immigration. Many of the world’s most talented people come to America to build lives and careers, and there’s clear evidence that immigrant-founded companies have been great job-creation engines. The current policies in this area are far too restrictive, and our procedures are nightmarishly bureaucratic.

The fifth thing is basic research. Companies tend to concentrate on applied research, which means that the government has a role to play in supporting original early-stage research. Most of today’s tech marvels, from the internet to the smartphone, have a government program somewhere in their family tree. Funding for basic research in America, though, is on the decline: Both total and nondefense federal R&D spending, as percentages of GDP, have declined by more than a third since 1980. That must change.

"

May 21, 15

" Accept the inevitability of absolute automation. If it's unrealistic to think companies around the world will reject the philosophy of growth-at-all-costs, assume automation is inevitable. Deep Learning and AI are not being designed to only replace certain societal roles. It's being designed to fully replicate humanity. This choice has been made. Fight it or accept the fact you're letting it happen.

Fight to control your personal data. The primary reason we all should be controlling our personal data is not about privacy but Intellectual Property. Would you walk around passing out documents containing your most intimate company IP? Do you randomly email strangers with patent applications? That's the equivalent of what we've been trained to do in the current data economy. We're told, "privacy is dead" by the same tech companies paying billions of dollars to lobbyists every year keeping laws protecting our rights around personal data from being passed. In terms of automation, common practice today is that machines observe our behavior until they're ready to take over our jobs. It's the literal equivalent of training your successor. If we controlled our personal data, we'd be able to discern which of our skills was unique to us as humans and charge R&D fees over and above our salary to help provide for our families once we were fired.

Embrace Positive Psychology. The field of affective computing (where machines emulate human emotion to improve wellbeing) is a growing vertical with the promise of helping improve the lives of countless humans in the future. In Japan alone, where the senior population is massive, companion robots seem like an excellent solution to provide for their medical needs while also granting the comfort of perceived interaction. However, after years of studying the science of positive psychology, my belief is you can't automate human wellbeing. You can utilize emerging or existing technology to help automate aspects of improving wellbeing, but you can't have a machine be grateful for you. You can't experience the benefits of altruism by having your iPhone automate acts of kindness. In this sense, at least for today, positive psychology belongs to the realm of humanity. I'd love for companies to embrace its tenets to grow employee wellbeing in light of maximizing global happiness. But the way things stand now, the primary reason to accelerate the adoption of positive psychology is to give people tools to find a sense of purpose once automation renders them unemployed. "

May 20, 15

""I'm just a worker that wants to come to work and do my job and maintain a living for my family," he said. "So, automation - it feels cold."

Mr Crumlin of the MUA agrees.

"Consumption is predicated upon jobs," he said.

"In our society human beings drive growth.

"The whole thing is distorted. It says business values prevail over social values. There needs to be a check and a balance over how these things are introduced and why.""

May 19, 15

"Perform complex office tasks: WorkFusion makes software that automatically assesses a project to see what parts can be fully automated, which parts can be crowdsourced to a freelance network like Elance, and what still needs to be handled by humans. All the while, it analyzes performance, for instance by asking freelancers questions it already knows the answers to, so that it can test their capabilities. The platform reduces the need for in-house staff by making use of freelancers, but then it looks to do away with them as well. "Even as the freelancers work under the direction of the system, they are simultaneously generating the training data that will gradually lead to their replacement," Ford writes."

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