"In emerging economies such as South Africa there is an amazing statistic: 477,000 job vacancies alongside 344,000 unemployed graduates. This story is echoed across Africa, where the problem is not a shortage of academic research, God knows we have enough of that in the developed world, but youth unemployment. What is known as the youth bulge (by 2050 60% under 25) is already leading to mass youth unemployment and underemployment, leading to social unrest. Witness Boko Haram, which erupted in Nigeria’s poorest state, the state with the highest levels of youth unemployment. Then along comes a gang of religious thugs and offers a gang, a purpose with a gun and a set of radical, fundamentalist beliefs. To what problem is education a solution in Africa? Youth unemployment. Africa does NEED vocational education more than academic education.
"Machines can do some surprising things. But what you really want to know is this: Will your job be around in the future?
We have the "definitive" guide."
What job is hardest for a robot to do? Mental health and substance abuse social workers (found under community and social services). This job has a 0.3 percent chance of being automated. That's because it's ranked high in cleverness, negotiation, and helping others. The job most likely to be done by a robot? Telemarketers. No surprise; it's already happening.
The researchers admit that these estimates are rough and likely to be wrong. But consider this a snapshot of what some smart people think the future might look like. If it says your job will likely be replaced by a machine, you've been warned.
Top 200 content curation tools - organised and vetted in 34 categories - ready to be used
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"What kind of economic environment would make the best use of the new digital technologies?
McAfee: One that’s conducive to innovation, new business formation, and economic growth. To create it, we need to focus on five things:
The first is education. Primary and secondary education systems should be teaching relevant and valuable skills, which means things computers are not good at. These include creativity, interpersonal skills, and problem solving.
The second is infrastructure. World-class roads, airports, and networks are investments in the future and the foundations of growth.
Third, we need more entrepreneurship. Young businesses, especially fast-growing ones, are a prime source of new jobs. But most industries and regions are seeing fewer new companies than they did three decades ago.
A fourth focus is immigration. Many of the world’s most talented people come to America to build lives and careers, and there’s clear evidence that immigrant-founded companies have been great job-creation engines. The current policies in this area are far too restrictive, and our procedures are nightmarishly bureaucratic.
The fifth thing is basic research. Companies tend to concentrate on applied research, which means that the government has a role to play in supporting original early-stage research. Most of today’s tech marvels, from the internet to the smartphone, have a government program somewhere in their family tree. Funding for basic research in America, though, is on the decline: Both total and nondefense federal R&D spending, as percentages of GDP, have declined by more than a third since 1980. That must change.
" Accept the inevitability of absolute automation. If it's unrealistic to think companies around the world will reject the philosophy of growth-at-all-costs, assume automation is inevitable. Deep Learning and AI are not being designed to only replace certain societal roles. It's being designed to fully replicate humanity. This choice has been made. Fight it or accept the fact you're letting it happen.
Fight to control your personal data. The primary reason we all should be controlling our personal data is not about privacy but Intellectual Property. Would you walk around passing out documents containing your most intimate company IP? Do you randomly email strangers with patent applications? That's the equivalent of what we've been trained to do in the current data economy. We're told, "privacy is dead" by the same tech companies paying billions of dollars to lobbyists every year keeping laws protecting our rights around personal data from being passed. In terms of automation, common practice today is that machines observe our behavior until they're ready to take over our jobs. It's the literal equivalent of training your successor. If we controlled our personal data, we'd be able to discern which of our skills was unique to us as humans and charge R&D fees over and above our salary to help provide for our families once we were fired.
Embrace Positive Psychology. The field of affective computing (where machines emulate human emotion to improve wellbeing) is a growing vertical with the promise of helping improve the lives of countless humans in the future. In Japan alone, where the senior population is massive, companion robots seem like an excellent solution to provide for their medical needs while also granting the comfort of perceived interaction. However, after years of studying the science of positive psychology, my belief is you can't automate human wellbeing. You can utilize emerging or existing technology to help automate aspects of improving wellbeing, but you can't have a machine be grateful for you. You can't experience the benefits of altruism by having your iPhone automate acts of kindness. In this sense, at least for today, positive psychology belongs to the realm of humanity. I'd love for companies to embrace its tenets to grow employee wellbeing in light of maximizing global happiness. But the way things stand now, the primary reason to accelerate the adoption of positive psychology is to give people tools to find a sense of purpose once automation renders them unemployed. "
""I'm just a worker that wants to come to work and do my job and maintain a living for my family," he said. "So, automation - it feels cold."
Mr Crumlin of the MUA agrees.
"Consumption is predicated upon jobs," he said.
"In our society human beings drive growth.
"The whole thing is distorted. It says business values prevail over social values. There needs to be a check and a balance over how these things are introduced and why.""
"Perform complex office tasks: WorkFusion makes software that automatically assesses a project to see what parts can be fully automated, which parts can be crowdsourced to a freelance network like Elance, and what still needs to be handled by humans. All the while, it analyzes performance, for instance by asking freelancers questions it already knows the answers to, so that it can test their capabilities. The platform reduces the need for in-house staff by making use of freelancers, but then it looks to do away with them as well. "Even as the freelancers work under the direction of the system, they are simultaneously generating the training data that will gradually lead to their replacement," Ford writes."
"That’s the potential of self-driving cars — the outright extinction of car ownership. And with that, the elimination of entire industries built up around the existence of car ownership like: mechanics, car washes, parking, valets, body shops, rental companies, car insurance, car loans, and on and on. Even hugely expensive and capital intensive mass-transit infrastructure projects like streetcars and light rail can be dropped in favor of vastly cheaper on demand robotic “transportation clouds”, and all those construction and maintenance jobs right along with it."
In previous times, increasing earnings resulted in the hiring of more people. Thus both the Democratic approach (add money to the economy to increase earnings that way) or the Republican approach (cutting taxes or regulations) could work.
But not this time. The Bush Tax cuts had little effect on job creation. And the stimulus may have kept things from getting worse but do not seem to be providing the long lasting benefit they have in the past.
Neither approach works like it did in the past.
It may really be different this time. What worked in the 20th century may not work in the 21st.
I expect the reason is that technological solutions are simply replacing the need for more people as companies expand profits. Moore's law is now making an indelible impact on the job market. Technology does the jobs of people much too well.
In my own field, a robot can do 100 times the work of technicians. So what happens to those 100 technicians that had been paid a pretty good wage?
Technology is not only driving down the price to do things. It is driving down the cost of labor to the point where many people may simply never find a job that pays a living wage.
"As I often say, in a connected world, unless your skills are world-class, you are a commodity.
However there are three domains in which individuals and organizations can transcend commoditization and push their value creation to the other end of the spectrum, where they can command their price and choose their work.
The three domains are:
EXPERTISE. As more information is available, deep specialist world-class expertise that can be applied to create value for clients is the heart of much global value creation. That expertise must be broad-based, up-to-the-minute, and directly relevant to real-world issues.
RELATIONSHIPS. Expertise in isolation is not useful. The rich sets of relationships that form networks are at the heart of value creation. Those who can connect expertise and facilitate the co-creation of value in relationships will be at the heart of the economy.
INNOVATION. Innovation stems from connecting expertise, ideas, insights, and experience. Those who have original perspectives or can elicit new frames by bringing together diversity can capture and share extraordinary pools of value.
The future is stark. There will be a large and increasing divide between those who have one or more of these core strengths, and those who do not and whose livelihoods are on an ongoing path of commoditization."
I love it when others summarize my work:
"The Change in Work - It's not just factory workers but even Doctors that are going to be automated or outsourced. So how will you make a living? Only truly creative work will pay.
So what is Creative Work? - It is not just design etc but will include making valuable things and even growing food - and new sites such as Etsy enable you to find a market
The Industrial World Deskilled work - It all became assembly - Anything like this can be automated and will be
The jobs cannot come back
Training works well when you want to learn how to drive a car - you can train to be a carpenter but making the shift to be creative or to stand for themseleves - you cannot train for that
What is the new?
So what helps you be this new person?
Apprenticing - complex things cannot be learned except by shared experience
The crafts communities have never lost this - learn the rules and then learn how to break them - look at studios - very little teaching - mainly doing
Then you have to get connected to your community
All sorts of studios will emerge that will help you where clusters of people who know aggregate
The Knowledge Artisans have to take charge of themselves
What about advice for you?
Learn REAL skills - not just how to make it in an organization
Learn how to have a network - in the job world we don't have them - many of us don't know anything about this if we have had a job - so start now
This must be diverse and be about your interests
Put yourself OUT THERE
You are as good as your network
Think of yourself as a Freelancer for Life - and so always nuture your network no matter what - avoid getting lulled into a sense of false security
His advice to his kids
Find the sweet spot (Dave Pollard) Find out your passion, what you are good at and what people will pay you for
You have to have all three"
"In the wake of the recession, Ford writes, many companies decided that “ever-advancing information technology” allows them to operate successfully without rehiring the people they had laid off. And there should be no doubt that technology is advancing in the direction of full unemployment. Ford quotes the co-founder of a start-up dedicated to the automation of gourmet hamburger production: “Our device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them.”"
"The scarcest and most valuable resource in this second machine age is neither ordinary labor or capital but highly talented, innovative people. “Digital technologies increasingly make both ordinary labor and ordinary capital commodities, and so a greater share of the rewards from ideas will go to the creators, innovators, and entrepreneurs. People with ideas, not workers or investors, will be the scarcest resource.”"
"The South China Morning Post reported today that Shenzhen Evenwin Precision Technology Co., a manufacturing company that makes cell phone parts and other electronics, is planning to replace roughly 90 percent of its 1,800-person workforce with machines, leaving roughly 1,600 people out of work. The company, whose chairman became a billionaire in March, is planning to spend $322 million on a new factory in Dongguan that will use “only robots for production,” according to the outlet, with a small human staff of 200 to keep tabs on the machines."
"One program in development is the Maine Network of Innovation and Creativity, which facilitates "requests for collaboration" that connect people both online and in person, using MCC's platform as a hub for shared information. "You might have someone in a very small town who is an expert in puzzle making, for instance, who just happens to be known internationally," says Maginnis. "It would be really important for us to know that here, because there may be a project that's very related to puzzle design in a corporation that would want to know that this expert lives here in Maine. The keywords are 'seek,' 'find,' and 'collaborate.' It's about identifying talents and then creating a mechanism for collaboration.""
"And there is another problem with Lowry’s analysis here too. He engages in classic retrospective coherence, in which he traces the causes of the present situation back to a set of actions. There is nothing wrong with this, and again, he is not wrong in some of this analysis, probably. But he projects that limited root cause analysis into the future in such a way that he is claims to be able to judge the efficacy of responses to the crises. And in so doing, he does not use this look back at the situation to illuminate his own biases, which would actually be valuable. This is a fatal error in dealing with complex situations. The desire to “fix” Baltimore is fundamentally psychotic. You cannot “fix” a situation like this without eliminating the people that in the middle of it. Lowry does that. Not a single voice quoted in his article is a person living in the middle of this.
And you cannot evaluate the efficacy of responses based on past performance. We are dealing with a complex system. A transformative moment in Baltimore is just as likely to happen as a result of all those neighbours who cleaned the place up as it is but creating a fundamental policy shift or slapping your kid on video or rejigging the tax system to allow more Republicans to be registered.
The problem with that of course, is that in order to deal with situations like this you need to engage the people in middle of it to both make sense of what is going, make meaning of actions, initiate and lead multiple responses at all kinds of scales to what is going on. Having pundits at a distance pronouncing on the efficacy of efforts based on a pre-ordained ideological frame is not helpful because it entrains decision makers to look for data that supports their conclusions.
Unfortunately this is exactly what passes for public discourse and policy making these days. The best thing to do is be quiet and listen to what the people on the ground are saying and doing. They’re stories are the only ones that matter, and their leadership is the only leadership that will make a difference. they may require support from higher levels of government or broader contexts, but they are not helped by all of us pronouncing on their efforts. We have absolutely no benchmarks with which to gauge success or failure. No one has the “answer” for Baltimore. Instead it’s about shared work, shared meaning making, shared leadership and grounded sense-making. It’s about thinking and acting differently."
"Without a conductor, A Far Cry arguably behaves more like a quartet than a symphony orchestra; the group relies on consistent and clear communication amongst its members to keep the music going. Not all chamber orchestras are conductorless—but the conductorless model is an emerging trend in 21st century music entrepreneurship, likely because it encourages democratic values as well as a kind of scintillating energy that you may not be able to find in a symphony orchestra. “We have a pretty unique dynamic,” violinist Miki-Sophia Cloud told me."
over 100 examples of social media policy from many fields/industries
"We show that over the past 40 years, structural change within the labor market has revealed itself during downturns and recoveries. The arrival of robotics, computing, and information technology has allowed for a large-scale automation of routine tasks. This has meant that the elimination of middle-wage jobs during recessions has not been accompanied by the return of such jobs afterward. This is true of both blue-collar jobs, like those in production occupations, and white-collar jobs in office and administrative support occupations. Thus, the disappearance of job opportunities in routine occupations is leading to jobless recoveries."
"Their work shows the economy has continued to generate jobs, but with a focus on nonroutine work, especially cognitive. Since the late 1980s, such occupations have added more than 22 million workers."