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Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison's Public Library

  • There is no indication that the Fed is targeting a higher level of inflation as an overshoot. Rather, they want to be sure we are moving back toward the 2.0% level as they look to the jobs picture in adjusting policy.

  • "The UK is a must to avoid. Its gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine," he said."High debt with the potential to devalue its currency present high risks for bond investors."
Jul 18, 16

"The establishment reacts to floating voters by patronising them and if they indicate that they may vote for a candidate such as Le Pen, they are lampooned as being racist, out of touch or backward.
However, in this article, I am going to show you the economic evidence that is driving the guy in the middle, not just in France but everywhere in the West to the extremes.
The first thing to know is that the plight of the middle in France is real."

  • n sum, our brains are NOT hard-wired for non-confirmatory evidence. We are not rewarded for seeking non-confirming data. Therefore, we generally seek confirmatory evidence after we have made any decision.

  • And this is exactly how bond vigilantes work in a sovereign currency area. The implicit understanding is that inflation spirals out of control and the bond vigilantes front run the central bank’s move to counteract this inflation.

  • unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

  • we cannot rule out the possibility expressed by some prominent economists that the slow productivity growth seen in recent years will continue into the future
  • More generally, in the current environment of sluggish growth, low inflation, and already very accommodative monetary policy in many advanced economies, investor perceptions of and appetite for risk can change abruptly.
  • the Committee expects that the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below the levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run because headwinds--which include restraint on U.S. economic activity from economic and financial developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth--mean that the interest rate needed to keep the economy operating near its potential is low by historical standards.

  • Whatever the British say or feel, there will be a price to pay, if only to prevent further attempts to exit the E.U.

  • I think the fact that Esther George did not descent is telling you that there is an acknowledgement among members of the committee that the United States is probably headed toward a recession

  • I see the value in making small and gradual adjustments to the fed funds rate as the data improve and confirm my positive baseline outlook for the U.S. And this is my base-case view of appropriate policy. On the other hand, if I think outside of the baseline, I also think that a reasonable case can be made for holding off increasing the funds rate until core inflation actually gets to 2 percent on a sustainable basis.

  • Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed

  • It's not going too far to say we are watching a showdown between Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and bond investors, otherwise known as the financial markets. When in doubt, bet on the markets

  • Employment 49.7 53.0 -3.3 Contracting From Growing 1 49.2 49.2 0.0
  • Comments from respondents include: "Some reduction in force due to flat revenue" and "Streamlining the organization and removing some positions."

  • What is the relevance of this scenario for today? Although macroeconomic forecasting is fraught with hazards, I would not interpret the currently very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come, for several reasons.

  • The only plausible case for rates rising that much is if the US economy is booming and the Fed is raising rates in an effort to slow the boom.

  • largely as a result of Ronald Reagan’s fiscal expansion,

  • The use of a national currency, such as the U.S. dollar, as global reserve currency leads to tension between its national and global monetary policy. This is reflected in fundamental imbalances in the balance of payments, specifically the current account, as some goals require an outflow of dollars from the United States, while others require an overall inflow.
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