Terry Carter's List: Global Warming

• What Causes Global Warming
• the United Nations formed a group of scientists called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC
• One of the first things scientists learned is that there are several greenhouse gases responsible for warming, and humans emit them in a variety of ways
• Most come from the combustion of fossil fuels in cars, factories and electricity production. The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon dioxide, also called CO2
• . Other contributors include methane released from landfills and agriculture (especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from fertilizers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of forests that would otherwise store CO2.
• Since 1990, yearly emissions have gone up by about 6 billion metric tons of "carbon dioxide equivalent" worldwide, more than a 20 percent increase.

4 more annotations...

• retain heat
• Earth’s temperature depends on the balance between energy entering and leaving the planet’s system .
• prior to the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s can be explained by natural  causes
• mid-20th century. Rather, human activities can very likely explain most of that  warming. ^[1]
• Greenhouse gases (GHGs) like water vapor (H₂O), carbon dioxide  (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) absorb energy, slowing or  preventing the loss of heat to space
• . In this way, GHGs act like a blanket, making Earth warmer than it would  otherwise be. This process is commonly known as the “greenhouse effect”.
• The primary human activity affecting the amount and rate of climate change is  greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
• The most important GHGs directly emitted by humans include CO₂,  CH₄, nitrous oxide (N₂O), and several others.
• Carbon dioxide
  
• Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have increased by almost 40% since  pre-industrial times, from approximately 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv)  in the 18th century to 390 ppmv in 2010. The current CO₂ level is  higher than it has been in at least 800,000 years. ^[1
• Human activities currently release over 30 billion tons of CO₂ into  the atmosphere every year. ^[1] This build-up in  the atmosphere is like a tub filling with water, where more water flows from the  faucet than the drain can take away.
• Methane
  
• Water vapor
• Nitrous oxide
  
• Tropospheric ozone (O3)
• • pollutant that can cause respiratory health problems and damage crops and  ecosystems.
   
  • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),

14 more annotations...

• “It is the greatest deception in history and the extent of the damage has yet to be exposed and measured,” says Dr. Tim Ball in his new book, “The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science”.
• There is no scientific support for the UN theory.
• The atmosphere,” Dr. Ball notes, “is three-dimensional and dynamic, so building a computer model that even approximates reality requires far more data than exists and much greater understanding of an extremely turbulent and complex system.” No computer model put forth by the IPCC in support of global warming has been accurate, nor ever could be.
• Scientists who challenged were denied funding and marginalized.
• The growing problem for the CRU and the entire global warming hoax was that no clear evidence existed to blame mankind for changes in the climate and still largely unknown to the public was the fact that the Earth has passed through many natural cycles of warmth and cooling. If humans were responsible, how could the CRU explain a succession of ice ages over millions of years
• The CRU emails revealed their growing concerns regarding a cooling cycle that had begun in the late 1990s and now, some seventeen years later, the Earth is in a widely recognized cooling cycle
• Worse, however, has been “the deliberate deceptions, misinformation, manipulation of records and misapplying scientific method and research” to pursue a political objective. Much of this is clearly unlawful, but it is unlikely that any of those who perpetrated the hoax will ever be punished and, in the case of Al Gore and the IPCC, they shared a Nobel Peace Prize

5 more annotations...

• Unfortunately, climatologists are forced to rely on statistical computer models in order to derive their predictions
• These climate models have difficulty accurately simulating all the potential parameters and can vary all over the map as shown by this graph:
• Besides the recent cold weather snap, it’s possible Americans have been influenced by the Climategate scandal, which claimed to show the scientists are “concealing” data, focused on politics instead of science, and are readily admitting internally that climate change “science is weak and dependent on deliberate manipulation of facts and data.” Some of the other predictions made about the United States also did not come about, with the major one being an increase in hurricane activity
• Do you think so-called global warming facts are based upon a hoax? If not, do you think the climate change is due to natural fluctuations or do you consider human pollution an overwhelming factor?

2 more annotations...

• Global-warming scientists are digging themselves out of arctic ice flows just in time to warn the rest of the world, which is recovering from another record-breaking winter, that they are here to save the day.

  This idea of human-induced global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated in human history. In reality, it is nothing but a fraud, a get-rich-quick scheme for climate scientists on government grants and washed-up politicians like Al Gore
• It’s fair to say that when it comes to climate change, we don’t have enough information to call the matter settled
• It doesn’t really matter because global warming has never been about saving the planet. It’s about power-hungry politicians, with like-minded friends in Hollywood, who want to control every aspect of our lives, all in the name of saving the planet from a problem that does not exist

1 more annotation...

• Marc Airhart with the University of Texas at Austin has developed a series of reports that track research conducted by climate scientists’ at the Jackson School of Geosciences on eight of the most common myths about climate change.
• Myth No. 1: What global warming? Earth has actually been cooling since 1998
• Myth No. 2: Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) can’t contribute to global warming: It’s already maxed out as a factor and besides, water vapor is more consequential.
• Myth No. 3: You can’t trust climate models because they do a lousy job representing clouds and aerosols.
  
• Myth No. 4: There have been big climate changes in the past, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, so why can’t recent climate changes just be explained by natural variability?
• Myth No. 5: Natural forces such as solar variability, cosmic rays or volcanic eruptions can explain the observed warming.
• Myth 6. The urban heat island effect or other land use changes can explain the observed warming.
• Myth 7. Natural ocean variability can explain the observed warming
• Myth No. 8: In the past, global temperatures rose first and then carbon dioxide levels rose later. Therefore, rising temperatures cause higher CO2 levels, not the other way around.

7 more annotations...

• Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption  that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a "stable" climate is  simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare  for it.
• Many scientists believe that the thermometer record is biased by  the Urban Heat Island effect and other artefacts.
• no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has been  identified in the global temperature pattern.
• Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on  Earth would be -180 C rather than the equable +150 C that has nurtured  the development of life.
• Water vapour, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far  the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas.
• Carbon dioxide therefore cannot be the primary forcing agent for  temperature increase
• the IPCC is a political, not scientific, body.
• Hendrik Tennekes, a retired Director of Research at the Royal  Netherlands Meteorological Institute, says that "the IPCC review process is  fatally flawed" and that "the IPCC wilfully ignores the paradigm shift created  by the foremost meteorologist of the twentieth century, Edward Lorenz".    
• The Russian Academy of Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific  basis; Andre Illarianov, senior advisor to Russian president Putin, calls  Kyoto-ism "one of the most agressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since  the collapse of communism and fascism". 
• No deterministic computer model will ever be able to make an accurate prediction  of climate 100 years into the future
• experts in computer modelling agree also that no current (or  likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate predictions of  regional climate change.
• The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all  scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate
• Myth 1     Average global temperature  (AGT) has increased over the last few years.
• Fact 1 Within error bounds, AGT has not increased since 1995 and  has declined since 2002, despite an increase in atmospheric CO2 of 8% since  1995. 
• Myth 2     During the late  20th Century, AGT increased at a dangerously fast rate and reached an  unprecedented magnitude
• Facts 2 The late 20th Century AGT rise was at a rate of  1-20 C/century, which lies well within natural rates of climate change for  the last 10,000 yr. AGT has been several degrees warmer than today many times in  the recent geological past.
• Myth 3     AGT was relatively unchanging  in pre-industrial times, has sky-rocketed since 1900, and will increase by  several degrees more over the next 100 years (the Mann, Bradley & Hughes  "hockey stick" curve and its computer extrapolation).
• Facts 3 The Mann et al. curve has been exposed as a statistical  contrivance. There is no convincing evidence that past climate was unchanging,  nor that 20th century changes in AGT were unusual, nor that dangerous human  warming is underway
• Myth 4     Computer models predict that  AGT will increase by up to 60 C over the next 100 years
• Facts 4 Deterministic computer models do. Other equally valid  (empirical) computer models predict cooling.
• Myth 5     Warming of more than 20 C  will have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and mankind alike.
• Facts 5 A 20 C change would be well within previous  natural bounds. Ecosystems have been adapting to such changes since time  immemorial. The result is the process that we call evolution. Mankind can and  does adapt to all climate extremes.
• Myth 6     Further human addition of  CO2 to the atmosphere will cause dangerous warming, and is generally  harmful.
• Facts 6 No human-caused warming can yet be detected that is  distinct from natural system variation and noise. Any additional human-caused  warming which occurs will probably amount to less than 10 C. Atmospheric  CO2 is a beneficial fertilizer for plants, including especially cereal  crops, and also aids efficient evapo-transpiration.
• th 7     Changes in solar activity cannot explain  recent changes in AGT.
• Facts 7 The sun's output varies in several ways on many time  scales (including the 11-, 22 and 80-year solar cycles), with concomitant  effects on Earth's climate. While changes in visible radiation are small,  changes in particle flux and magnetic field are known to exercise a strong  climatic effect. More than 50% of the 0.80 C rise in AGT observed during  the 20th century can be attributed to solar change.
• th 8     Unprecedented melting of ice is taking place  in both the north and south polar regions
• Facts 8 Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are  growing in thickness and cooling at their summit. Sea ice around Antarctica  attained a record area in 2007. Temperatures in the Arctic region are just now  achieving the levels of natural warmth experienced during the early 1940s, and  the region was warmer still (sea-ice free) during earlier times.  

     

  Myth 9     Human-caused global  warming is causing dangerous global sea-level (SL) rise
• Facts 9 SL change differs from time to time and place to  place; between 1955 and 1996, for example, SL at Tuvalu fell by 105 mm (2.5  mm/yr). Global average SL is a statistical measure of no value for environmental  planning purposes. A global average SL rise of 1-2 mm/yr occurred naturally over  the last 150 years, and shows no sign of human-influenced increase.    

     

  Myth 10   The late 20th Century increase  in AGT caused an increase in the number of severe storms (cyclones), or in storm  intensity.
• Facts 10 Meteorological experts are agreed that no increase in  storms has occurred beyond that associated with natural variation of the climate  system.  

     

   

     

  Robert M. Carter is a Research Professor at James  Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia).  He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental  scientist with more than thirty years professional experience. 

28 more annotations...

• Global warming is the term used to describe a gradual increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and its oceans, a change that is believed to be permanently changing the Earth’s climate

• Global warming is the increase of Earth's average surface temperature due to greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which trap heat that would otherwise escape from Earth.
• Greenhouse gases keep heat close to the earth’s surface making it livable for humans and animals. However, global warming is happening largely due to an over-emittance of these gases and fossil fuels (natural oil, gasoline, coal).
• With the start of industry in the 1700's, humans began emitting more fossil fuels from coal, oil, and gas to run our cars, trucks, and factories. By driving a “smarter” car, you will not only save on gas, but help prevent global warming
• There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today than at any point in the last 800,000 years.
• In total, the U.S. emits approximately 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. 40% of that comes from power plant emissions alone
• The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) proposed the Clean Air Act to cut power plant emissions by 26% in the next 7 years
• Since 1870, global sea levels have risen by about 8 inches.

• Consequences of global warming include drought, severe hurricanes, massive fires and melting of the polar caps.  

   

    9. Heat waves caused by global warming present greater risk of heat-related illness and death, most frequently among patients of diabetes who are elderly or very young.  

• According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the temperature in the U.S. has increased by 2 degrees in the last 50 years and precipitation by 5%.  

   

    11. Global warming puts coral reefs in danger as warmer water increases the possibility of coral diseases and the rising sea levels makes it more difficult for coral to receive adequate sunlight.  

7 more annotations...