Sachiyo Yasunaga's List: IR First Paper: Iran Nuclear Weapon Program

• President Obama has said he wants to see if diplomacy can keep Iran's nuclear ambitions in check
• Because the U.S. has no diplomatic relations with

  Tehran, it's hard to find U.S. officials who have actually negotiated with Iranians.
• Tehran
• had no reason to negotiate.
• it as a good way to knock Tehran off balance.
• with Iranian opposition figures facing what many describe as show trials, it's difficult for the Obama administration to keep its hand outstretched.
• I don't believe the Iranians will be able to come to the table and actually negotiate.
• Our attempts to play that game in Iranian politics has always failed and has always backfired. And I think it's a mistake to do that again today.
• She is one of those rare former officials who has actually negotiated with Iranians about how to cooperate in Afghanistan and in dealing with al-Qaida.
• Iran becoming a nuclear weapons state would kick off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
• cutting gasoline supplies to Iran. But analyst Trita Parsi thinks that could backfire,
• He's also worried that the U.S. is focusing solely on the nuclear issue. Hillary Mann Leverett says it's a fool's errand to try to deal with that issue in isolation when there are other concerns, such as Iran's influence in Iraq and Afghanistan, and its relations with militant groups.
• But others say the Obama administration will have to wait and see how the political situation in Iran plays out first.

11 more annotations...

• Persian Gulf
• that's too little too late, and that more should be done now to prevent Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons
• On a visit to Thailand, the secretary of state said if the U.S. extends a defense umbrella over the region, Iran would not be able to dominate
• gaining a nuclear weapon won't necessarily increase its influence.
• Secretary Clinton insisted she wasn't proposing anything specific, merely trying to impress upon Iran's leaders how serious Washington is about preventing them from gaining nuclear weapons
• hey will have to align themselves with the U.S. against Iran, something they do not want to do."
• But they see the administration's attention shifting away from Iraq and Iran, and toward Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• While they watch uneasily for signs of Iranian nuclear progress, the Saudis and Emiratis will continue to spend billions of dollars on ballistic missile defense systems. And both countries, plus Kuwait, are considering building nuclear power plants of their own

6 more annotations...

• Iran's nuclear ambitions.
• Israel's leaders believe otherwise
• a bomb it could then use against Israel
• If Israel were to attack Iran's nuclear facilities today, analysts say the scenario would be very different.
• The best way, of course, is diplomatic. The second best is through sanctions and economic pressure.
• Israelis see the Iranian nuclear threat as more than a simple issue of nuclear proliferation. Most Israelis believe that Iran's regime wants to eliminate their state.
• There are something like 140,000 American soldiers in Iraq. There's 35,000 American soldiers in Afghanistan. Any unilateral action against Iran could cause the Iranians to retaliate against American soldiers. And if this is done without any American consent, then that could put unbearable pressure on relations between Jerusalem and Washington. And this is something I don't think any Israeli administration is willing to risk.
• srael has not made up its mind yet what it will do if diplomacy and sanctions fail

6 more annotations...

• what policies, then, are available to the U.S. if Iran does get the bomb?
• The nuclear umbrella has one obvious and one not-so-obvious goal: the obvious goal is to deter a nuclear adversary from attacking a friend or ally; the not-so-obvious goal is to dissuade those friends or allies from acquiring nuclear weapons of their own,
• In Asia, the U.S. provides the nuclear umbrella to Japan and South Korea so that even if North Korea has acquired nuclear weapons, Japan and South Korea won't.
• Nuclear extended deterrence, if it fails, could embroil the United States, or whoever else is providing this guarantee, in a nuclear war that they otherwise could have avoided.
• There's no need for the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in the Middle East for this extended deterrence to be there.
• If she's going to talk about the Iranian nuclear program, she should've talked about U.S. policies to counter the likelihood that Iran would make a bomb, rather than talking about how, even if Iran did make a bomb, it wouldn't help because we would come to the aid of anyone Iran might threaten.
• may not be able to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.

5 more annotations...

• But if they do eventually become a nuclear weapons state, one option available to the U.S. to counter that awesome power in the hands of Iran's leaders is through an approach that worked for nearly half a century: deterrence. NPR's Mike Shuster reports.
• The Bush administration had little interest in deterrence as a foreign policy option, focusing instead on war - preventive or preemptive war - as a tool to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
• We tried preventative war in the case of Iraq. This turned out to have costs and difficulty that were not entertained at the outset. Most people believe that in the case of Iran, those costs and difficulties would be considerably greater.
• fanatics
• apocalypse
• They know that if they, for example, attack Israel, the Israelis and the United States would have the capability to completely destroy Iran and, in the process, completely destroy the regime.
• but ultimately rejected that option in favor of deterrence
• Some critics of deterrence think Iran would share the bomb with others, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• it would be very risky to assume that a combination of containment and deterrence would be adequate to protect us.
• Iran's own supply of natural uranium is believed to be quite small and dwindling already. Acquiring uranium from other nations could be difficult if Iran sought to keep it secret.

8 more annotations...

• Around 2005, Germany refused to export any more nuclear equipment or refund money paid by Iran for such equipment in the 1980s.

• UN Security Council

   
   
  • After Iran still refused to suspend enrichment, as required by the UN Security Council Resolution 1737, the Council decided in March 2007 to widen the scope of the sanctions.^[87]
   
   
   
  • In UN Security Council Resolution 1803 of March 3, 2008, the Council decided to extend those sanctions to cover additional financial institutions, restrict travel of additional persons, and bar exports of nuclear- and missile-related dual-use goods to Iran.^[88] The implementation of the sanctions is monitored by a Security Council Committee.
• • In late October 2007, according to the International Herald Tribune, the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, stated that he had seen "no evidence" of Iran developing nuclear weapons. The IHT quoted ElBaradei as saying "We have information that there has been maybe some studies about possible weaponization. That's why we have said that we cannot give Iran a pass right now, because there is still a lot of question marks... . But have we seen Iran having the nuclear material that can readily be used into a weapon? No. Have we seen an active weaponization program? No." The IHT report went on to say that "ElBaradei said he was worried about the growing rhetoric from the U.S., which he noted focused on Iran's alleged intentions to build a nuclear weapon rather than evidence the country was actively doing so. If there is actual evidence, ElBaradei said he would welcome seeing it."^[92]
• In February 2009 IAEA Director General reportedly said that he believed the possibility of a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations had been ruled out. “Force can only be used as a last option... when all other political possibilities have been exhausted,” he told Radio France International.^[102][103] Former Director General Hans Blix criticized Western governments for the years lost by their "ineffective approaches" to Iran's nuclear program. Blix suggested the West offer "guarantees against attacks from the outside and subversive activities inside" and also suggested U.S. involvement in regional diplomacy "would offer Iran a greater incentive to reach a nuclear agreement than the Bush team's statements that 'Iran must behave itself'."^[104]
• In July 2009, Yukiya Amano, the in-coming head of the IAEA said that he did not see any evidence Iran was trying to gain the ability to develop nuclear arms. "I don't see any evidence in IAEA official documents about this," Yukiya Amano told Reuters.^[106]
• Interviews and surveys show that the majority of Iranians in all groups favor their country's nuclear program, including a full fuel cycle program, but
• most also believe that nuclear weapons are contrary to Islam.
• Polls in 2008 showed that the vast majority of Iranians want their country to develop nuclear energy, and 90 percent of Iranians believe it is important (including 81% very important) for Iran "to have a full fuel cycle nuclear program."^[110] Though Iranians are not Arab, Arab publics in six countries also believe that Iran has the right to its nuclear program and should not be pressured to stop that program.
• In explaining why it had left its enrichment program undeclared to the IAEA, Iran said that for the past twenty four years it has "been subject to the most severe series of sanctions and export restrictions on material and technology for peaceful nuclear technology," so that some elements of its program had to be done discreetly.
• In 2003, the IAEA reported that Iran had failed to meet its obligations to report some of its enrichment activities, which Iran says began in 1985, to the IAEA as required by its safeguards agreement. The IAEA further reported that Iran had undertaken to submit the required information for agency verification and "to implement a policy of co-operation and full transparency" as corrective actions.^[58]
• the Iranian leader attacked what he called "intimidation" by the United Nations, which he said was led by the United States. Ahmadinejad criticised a White House rebuff of his offer for a televised debate with President Bush. "They say they support dialog and the free flow of information," he said. "But when debate was proposed, they avoided and opposed it."
• Ahmadinejad said that sanctions "cannot dissuade Iranians from their decision to make progress," according to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency. "On the contrary, many of our successes, including access to the nuclear fuel cycle and producing of heavy water, have been achieved under sanctions."
• Iran insists enrichment activities are intended for peaceful purposes, but much of the West, including the United States, allege that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, or a nuclear weapons "capability". The August 31, 2006 deadline called for Iran to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1696 and suspend its enrichment-related activities or face the possibility of economic sanctions.
• President George W. Bush insisted on August 31, 2006 that "there must be consequences" for Iran's defiance of demands that it stop enriching uranium. He asserted "the world now faces a grave threat from the radical regime in Iran. The Iranian regime arms, funds, and advises Hezbollah."^[135]
• Investigative reporter Seymour Hersh reported that, according to military officials, the Bush administration had plans for the use of nuclear weapons against "underground Iranian nuclear facilities".^[139] When specifically questioned about the potential use of nuclear weapons against Iran, President Bush claimed that "All options were on the table". According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, Bush "directly threatened Iran with a preemptive nuclear strike. It is hard to read his reply in any other way."^[140

  • Democratic Peace Theory - democratic states go to war to keep non-democratic states to arm.
• The policy of using nuclear weapons on a first-strike basis against non-nuclear opponents is a violation of the US Negative Security Assurance pledge not to use nuclear weapons against
• non-nuclear members of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) such as Iran
• Threats of the use of nuclear weapons against another country constitute a violation of Security Council Resolution 984 of April 11, 1995
• Iran said Obama should apologize for the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II and his administration should stop talking to the world and "listen to what others are saying."^[
• According to a document released by the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research in August, 2009, Iran is unlikely to have the technical capability to produce HEU (highly enriched uranium, used for bombs) before 2013, and the US intelligence community has no evidence that Iran has yet made the decision to produce highly enriched uranium.^[150]
• stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam
• "Iran’s past failure to declare the import of UF6, failure to provide design information to the IAEA on the existing centrifuge facility prior to the introduction of nuclear material, and its conduct of undeclared laser isotope separation, uranium conversion experiments, and plutonium separation work ... also make clear that Iran has violated Article III of the NPT and its IAEA safeguards agreement."
• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the "Iranian nation has never ignored provisions of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but, they themselves have both deviated from NPT and used weapons of mass destruction."^[213]

21 more annotations...

• he Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT) is a treaty to limit the spread (proliferation) of nuclear weapons, opened for signature on July 1, 1968. There are currently 189 countries party to the treaty, five of which have nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, China and France (also permanent members of the UN Security Council).

   

  Only four recognized sovereign states are not parties to the treaty: India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. India, Pakistan and North Korea have openly tested and declared that they possess nuclear weapons. Israel has had a policy of opacity regarding its own nuclear weapons program. North Korea acceded to the treaty, violated it, and withdrew from it in 2003.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for military purposes. It was established as an autonomous organization on 29 July 1957. Though established independently of the United Nations under its own international treaty (the IAEA Statute), the IAEA reports to both the General Assembly and the Security Council.

• The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program.^[1
• After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Iranian government temporarily disbanded elements of the program, and then revived it with less Western assistance than during the pre-revolution era. Iran's nuclear program has included several research sites, a uranium mine, a nuclear reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include three known uranium enrichment plants.

• Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, (Persian: محمدرضا شاه پهلوی, pronounced [mohæmmæd rezɒː ʃɒːhe pæhlæviː])^{[add stress]} (26 October 1919, Tehran – 27 July 1980, Cairo), was the emperor of Iran from 16 September 1941, until his overthrow by the Iranian Revolution on 11 February 1979. He was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi of the Iranian monarchy.

• The Iranian Revolution of 1979 or 1979 Islamic Revolution (later known as the Islamic Revolution,^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]} Persian: انقلاب اسلامی, Enghelābe Eslāmi) refers to events involving the overthrow of Iran's monarchy under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and its replacement with an Islamic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution. It has been called an event that "made Islamic fundamentalism a political force ... from Morocco to Malaysia."

• The United States then launched an "Atoms for Peace" program that supplied equipment and information to schools, hospitals, and research institutions within the U.S. and throughout the world. The first nuclear reactors in Iran and Pakistan were built under the program by American Machine and Foundry.