Philip Guth's List: Retention

• Several colleges and universities like Purdue are mining data they have about students to try to improve retention. The institutions analyze years' worth of data on which students did well and which did poorly, and what variables — whether they be SAT scores, financial-aid status, or attendance at the dining halls — correlate with those successes or failures. Using those data, colleges try to predict which students are likely to drop out — and intervene before the students themselves even know they're in trouble.
• At Purdue the risk algorithm is based on academic variables like GPA's and standardized-test scores, as well as how often students log into the course site.
• Purdue researchers found that students in the moderate-risk (yellow light) group who received the e-mail messages did better in the course than did their counterparts in a control group.
• Thanks to the early-warning system, he says, more of those students are sliding into the B group.
• William G. Wild Jr., director of student-excellence initiatives at Buffalo's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, has identified seven variables, including scores on standardized state math tests, that predict undergraduates' success in the highly demanding program.
• The at-risk students are not told that they have been identified as being underprepared in any way, Mr. Wild says, so that they won't feel stigmatized.
• At the University System of Georgia, administrators worry about the "locus of control," a common personality-test measure the system uses to determine whether students feel they have control over their fates.
• At South Texas College, a study of grade histories showed that students who enrolled late in courses frequently failed or dropped them. So, despite protests from students, officials did away with late registration.
• "The data gave us the backbone to make a decision which was not very popular," says Shirley A. Reed, the college's president.

• "These are not impersonal drill sergeants," he says. "It doesn't take long  for students to figure out that this school really cares about them."

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