Dan Older's List: Global Warming

• The 192 nations in attendance at the end merely agreed to try to reach a binding accord before at a follow up meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in December 2010
• momentous tussle between rich and poor countries over who steps up first
• A string of large snowstorms in the Washington area and freezing weather in Florida in the winter of 2009-2010 were seized on by climate change skeptics
• roughly a fifth of American voters eager for action, a similar proportion aggressively rejecting projections of catastrophe and most people tuned out or confused.

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• Are the models overly conservative? Or are they missing natural influences that can cause wide swings in ice and temperature, thereby dwarfing the slow background warming?
• experts are having trouble finding any records from Russia, Alaska or elsewhere pointing to such a widespread Arctic ice retreat in recent times, adding credence to the idea that humans may have tipped the balance
• “We used to argue that a lot of the variability up to the late 1990s was induced by changes in the winds, natural changes not obviously related to global warming,” said John Michael Wallace

• While open Arctic waters could be a boon for shipping, fishing and oil exploration, an annual seesawing between ice and no ice could be a particularly harsh jolt to polar bears
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• Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will    not be readily absorbed by the oceans. =>CO2 greenhouse
• Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere    of Venus far above the boiling point of water. =>Venus & Mars
• Keeling accurately measures CO2    in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise.
• the climate system is sensitive    to small changes
• Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which    would raise sea levels catastrophically
• First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads    concern about global degradation.
• Creation of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world's    leading funder of climate research.
• Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between    relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially    around 11,000 years ago
• Studies show that CFCs (1975) and also methane and ozone (1976) can make    a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect.
• Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past    centuries, corresponding to cold periods
• Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as    the chief climate risk in next century.
• Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about    global warming.
• Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest    year on record.
• Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature    went up and down together through past ice ages, pointing to powerful    biological and geochemical feedbacks.
• Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems give climate    feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming
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     Fossil-fuel and other U.S. industries form Global Climate Coalition    to tell politicians and the public that climate science is too uncertain    to justify action.
• First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems    likely.
• Global warming skeptics claim that 20th-century temperature changes followed    from solar influences. (The solar-climate correlation would fail in the    following decade.)
• Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes (at least    on a regional scale) can occur in the space of a single decade.
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     Second IPCC report detects "signature" of human-caused    greenhouse effect warming, declares that serious warming is likely in    the coming century.
• Reports of the breaking up of Antarctic ice shelves and other signs of    actual current warming in polar regions begin affecting public opinion.
• International conference produces Kyoto Protocol, setting targets to    reduce greenhouse gas emissions if enough nations sign onto a treaty.
• "Super El Niño" causes weather disasters and warmest    year on record (approximately matched by 2005 and 2007). Borehole data    confirm extraordinary warming trend.
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     Global Climate Coalition dissolves as many corporations grapple    with threat of warming, but oil lobby convinces US administration to deny    problem.
• Variety of studies emphasize variability and importance of biological    feedbacks in carbon cycle, liable to accelerate warming.
• Third IPCC report states baldly that global warming, unprecedented    since end of last ice age, is "very likely," with possible severe    surprises. Effective end of debate among all but a few scientists.
• National Academy panel sees a "paradigm shift" in scientific    recognition of the risk of abrupt climate change (decade-scale).

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  Warming observed in ocean basins; match with computer models gives a    clear signature of greenhouse effect warming.
• Numerous observations raise concern that collapse of ice sheets    (West Antarctica, Greenland) can raise sea levels faster than most had    believed.
• Deadly summer heat wave in Europe accelerates divergence between European    and US public opinion.
• First major books, movie and art work featuring global warming appear.
• Kyoto treaty goes into effect, signed by major industrial nations    except US. Work to retard emissions accelerates in Japan, Western Europe,    US regional governments and corporations.
• 2007
    Fourth IPCC report warns that serious effects of warming have   become evident; cost of reducing emissions would be far less than the   damage they will cause.
• Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover found   to be shrinking faster than expected
• Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 385 ppm.
• Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 14.5°C, the warmest   in hundreds, perhaps thousands of years.

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