Jason Boudrias's List: Stocks-Netflix

• The company's transformation has been driven in part by a fundamental change in the way people consume television in an on-demand, digital age. Watching a movie via Netflix streaming isn't much different from renting a DVD, but for TV it offers fans a unique way to view one episode after another of addictive series such as "Gossip Girl" and "Mad Men."
   
   "We have found that what differentiates our service is the ability to sit down, pick a show and dig in," Sarandos said. "People will watch six or eight episodes in one sitting."

• Many film companies decided to scale back the availability of their content. Warner Bros., Universal Pictures and 20th Century Fox in 2010 instituted a 28-day delay from the time DVDs went on sale at retail outlets to when they could be rented from Netflix. (Warner Bros. last month extended that delay to 56 days). Last year, the cable channel Starz, which has the rights to sell movies from Sony Corp. and Walt Disney Co. to Netflix, sought renewal terms so exorbitant that the two companies ended their relationship. After this month, Netflix will not have access to movies from either Sony or Disney.
• The results of that conflict are evident in the fact that of 2011's top 100 movies at theaters in the U.S. and Canada, only 18 will be available on Netflix's streaming service this year.
• "They're an incredibly sophisticated buyer because, more so than any other company, they know what's going to work with their audience," Beeks of Lionsgate said.
  

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• STREAMING NEWCOMER: Verizon Communications Inc. and Coinstar Inc.'s Redbox will jointly start a video streaming service this year. 

  THE CHALLENGE: It's a challenge to Netflix, which faced a backlash to an unpopular price increase last year. Unlike other major streaming alternatives, the new venture will combine Internet delivery of movies with DVDs, as Netflix does. 

• The deal could spell trouble for streaming sites such as Netflix. The joint-venture between Verizon and Redbox is similiar to the 1990s, where then-small companies such as Prodigy and AOL began offering Internet access, said analyst Jeff Kagan. But eventually, large telecommunications companies began offering high-speed Internet service, forcing companies like Prodigy out of business and putting AOL in a near-death scenario.

   

  Large companies like Verizon may find they can jump into the wireless space pretty easily, and that could spell big trouble for Netflix in the future, Kagan said.

   

  "This could be the beginning of the end for Netflix," he said, but noted he couldn't make a more pointed prediction until more information is released regarding Redbox's streaming plans.

• Netflix up on reports it may be part of Apple TV

  Los Gatos-based Netflix jumped 2.8 percent on a report that Cupertino-based Apple's anticipated TV set would include the online video services of Netflix.

  Shares of Netflix rose $2.82 and finished at $129.25 after the report from online technology news site TheVerge.com that said retailer Best Buy surveyed customers on their interest in an Apple TV set that would offer Netflix streaming.

• February 7, 2012
• On a near term basis, we see Netflix trading up to $141. Looking out a bit further, our model provides a target value of $166. I missed my opportunity when Netflix was trading in the $60s. At the time, my model provided a target of about $77.

• In December, there was speculation that Verizon would look to acquire Netflix. Verizon subsequently denied that it had any interest in buying Netflix, but there may have still been some speculation that such a deal could take place in the future. In addition to creating more competition for Netflix, Verizon’s deal with Coinstar may have dampened speculation about an acquisition of Netflix by the telecom company. However, Yahoo executives discussed acquiring Netflix before the latter company’s stock price rallied over the last several weeks

• Feb 6, 2012,

• Stock to Sell #6 – Netflix (NFLX)

   

  An embarrassing miscalculation on customer pricing led to Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) decline from $300 in July to under $65 in November. Since then, management has tried to attract new customers, but weaker-than-expected subscriber growth and competition for streaming services from Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Redbox and others has diminished the company’s potential.

   

  Technically NFLX has doubled from its low and is now at a significant resistance line. Its stochastic is overbought, buying volume is declining and insiders have been sellers. The recent rally is a good opportunity to sell this once-unique company’s stock.

   

  

• The Web video market, currently dominated by Netflix, is set to become increasingly competitive over the next year as major players such as Amazon, Google Inc. (GOOG-Q610.901.050.17%) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ-N37.91-0.01-0.03%) launch so-called over-the-top services.

• “There was a topping pattern on Feb. 7,” said Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3 Trading. The stock hit a 2012 intraday high of $133.43 that day. “It now seems like $118 to $119 is the next level,” of support, he adds. After that “next stop can be $112 to $115.”