Gonzalo Martin's List: Mediacenters & DVR's

• Regardless of my own stance, there are still a host of issues surrounding the Apple TV. First off, it is estimated to have sold just 400,000 units, according to Forrester Research, which is an astounding 600,000 units shy of what the research firm originally believed Apple would have sold by now.

    
• Step 1: Allow users to do more
• Step 2: Start working with movie studios for a change
• Step 3: Apple must pretend like it cares
• Simply put, Apple seems like it doesn’t even care what happens with the Apple TV. And while it will talk about the iPod and iPhone until its PR people are blue in the face, it has failed to even speak to the issues that are plaguing this device

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• One of the key reasons for the Apple TV's apparent lack of success has been a lack of decent video content on the     iTunes Store. This is particularly true of the UK store, which is limited to pricey TV shows and short Pixar film movies.

  However critics of Forrester's own research point out that its US-centric survey also includes     responses from Canada where movies and TV programmes aren't even available in iTunes. This distorts the results.

  Mac site Roughly Drafted has     questioned Forrester's analysis. This is because Forrester claimed in January that iTunes sales were already in decline, even though other analysts were finding the opposite. Apple was forced to issue a rare statement dismissing claims made as a result of Forrester's research.
• This suggests that Apple is rapidly learning lessons about what works and what doesn't and will bounce back with a revamped device in early 2008.

• los mandos a distancia programables Harmony de Logitech hacen que pasear por los ajustes de tu sistema de entretenimiento en casa sea sencillo. Un botón enciende todo para ver una película, otro para encender la Xbox 360 y jugar, etc. Ya no hacen falta juegos malabares con 15 mandos a distancia. Sin embargo, los mandos Harmony son juguetes caros y complejos de configurar. Si Apple pudiera llevar su patente experiencia de usuario al mando a distancia, seguro que triunfaba.
• n embargo, hay un gran problema: ni el iPhone ni el iPod Touch tienen emisores infrarrojos, así que por sí solos no pueden controlar nada. Pero conecta los aparatos a un Apple TV a través de Wi-Fi, incorpora al Apple TV 2.0 un emisor infrarrojo y podrías emitir contenido directamente a tu iPhone o iPod Touch y convertirlos en coloridos mandos a distancia táctiles universales.

• Recuerda si puedes que Steve Jobs reveló que la mayoría de los contenidos cargados en los iPods no provienen de la tienda iTunes. La mayoría viene de colecciones de CDs existentes o de páginas de contenidos compartidos. Creo recordar que la media de canciones vendidas en iTunes por ipod está entre 20 y 30.

   

  El analista de Forrester, James McQuivey, señala que el gasto medio en iTunes por usuario está alrededor de 76 $. Obtiene esa cifra estimando que el 86 % de la gente que utiliza iTunes, compra algo en la tienda. Este colectivo es bastante grande: alrededor del 19 % de los adultos que usan internet. Es una porción respetable del universo….

   

  Pero ahora vienen las malas noticias para Apple: sólo el 19 % de esa gente que usa iTunes está comprando vídeo. Y aunque este grupo gasta casi el doble en iTunes – alrededor de 123 $ de media – McQuivey apunta que de ellos, sólo gastan 30 $ en vídeo. ¿La cuenta de resultados de ventas de vídeo? 100 millones de dólares en la primera mitad del año.

• Others have also depicted Apple's move as a direct strike at Netflix, but I think this battle is illusory. Rather, I view Apple's introduction of rentals as clear competition for the likes of Movielink, CinemaNow, Amazon Unbox, XBox LIVE and other rental stores, but not a blow to Netflix. The value propositions are very different. That's because Netflix very wisely has made the Instant Watching feature a value add for its subscribers, not an incremental fee.
• From an economic standpoint alone, the breakeven is only 4+ movies, which is likely well below the monthly consumption of most of Netflix's full unlimited subscribers
• Apple's rental model, users are still subjected to all the same online movie limitations all the other services have suffered from: no easy playback on TVs, lack of portability, viewing window limits, etc. Granted iTunes downloads enable watching on-the-go (vs. Netflix's streams), but I don't see that as a big differentiator. With Netflix you get the best of DVDs' advantages and now unlimited online delivery
• if Apple were to pursue subscriptions, that would be a direct attack on Netflix
• The fact is, Netflix has spent heavily on marketing over the years, and its strong brand awareness and 7 million subscriber base are quite meaningful advantages.
• Online movie delivery, whether rental or owned, still has a long way to go to achieve mainstream success. Apple will certainly nudge the category forward, but not dramatically. Still, Netflix needs to remain aggressively on offensive to retain its leadership mantle. This is a category with lots of moves yet to be made.

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• iewers don't delay viewing recorded programs, according to (pdf) an analysis of Nielsen data by Palisades MediaGroup, writes MarketingCharts.
• On average, half of all DVR primetime program playback occurs within the same day of recording. By the end of the following day, DVR owners complete approximately three-quarters of all program playback, Palisades said:
• "Nielsen estimates DVR penetration to be at 20 percent, up from 12 percent in January of this year. While this is a good-sized increase, the impact on viewership remains minor."
• ratings increase just over 15 percent due to DVR playback from live to live-plus-seven
• hat less than half of people who watch a recorded program fast-forward through the ads during playback
• "but overall DVR usage is not dramatically cutting into live viewing."
• The bottom line, according to Palisades: Advertisers with time-sensitive messages such as opening-weekend movie releases or special holiday sales offers need not fret over the DVR movement just yet; viewers are watching recorded programs shortly after they've been recorded - thus maintaining the timeliness of the advertising message.

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