Malachi Smith's List: MONROE DOCTRINE

• Sep 4, 2008
• Iran and the left in Latin America
• By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
• Bolivian President Evo Morales is in Tehran this week, ushering in a new   chapter in his country's economic and strategic cooperation with the Islamic   Republic of Iran, which has promised a hefty investment in Bolivia's energy   sector and other joint ventures,

  • And standing behind all of them and this activity is...Russia
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• some involving other Latin and Central   American countries, such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, not to overlook Cuba.
• In a joint communique, Morales and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad have signed off   on the need for "concrete political steps against every type of imperialism",   while also condemning the intervention of the United Nations Security Council   in Iran's nuclear program as "lacking any legal or technical justification".
• Bolivia may be a poor country, but it is strategically located and represents   an important ally for Iran that can act as a catalyst in
• enhancing Iran's growing cooperation with other Latin nations, especially those   considered leftist or populist.
• In his visit to Bolivia last year, Ahmadinejad promised that Iran would make a   US$1 billion investment in Bolivia's underdeveloped oil and gas sector and the   two sides are now much closer in turning this into reality.
• Certainly, Morales'   decision to set aside any hesitation and fully support Iran's position in the   current nuclear standoff goes a long way in cementing Iran-Bolivia friendship.
• From Tehran's vantage point, an indirect benefit of Morales' visit is that it   impresses on Moscow the services that Tehran can render in strengthening   Moscow's anti-unipolarism credo, which was spelled out by President Dmitry   Medvedev in his major foreign policy speech last week.

  • As I said: behind all of this looms Russia
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• Tapping into Cold War   lexicon, Medvedev openly mentioned Russia's intention to pursue a "sphere of   influence" in politics and made a point of mentioning "not only with   neighbors".
• As various Russian experts, including at the Russian Center for Strategic   Studies, have pointed out, Russia in the aftermath of the Georgia crisis is now   inclined to strengthen its ties with countries such as Iran and Venezuela.
• In   light of the Georgia visit this week by US Vice President Dick Cheney, reviled   by Premier Vladimir Putin as directly responsible for triggering the Georgia   crisis for election purposes, the growing rift between the US and Russia   simultaneously represents an opportunity for Tehran both to neutralize UN   Security Council efforts to impose tighter sanctions on Iran over the nuclear   program and explore further, and more meaningful, strategic cooperation with   Russia and the Latin left vis-a-vis the common threat of US unipolarism.
• On balance, the post-Cold War record of US unipolarism has been less than   desirable.
• There are many examples of blatant interventionism, bullying and   war-mongering that have risked world peace.
• And now with both the US   presidential candidates, Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican John   McCain, sold on the notion of maintaining the US's pre-eminence in global   politics, we must expect continuity with the pattern of post-Cold War policies   having the upper hand, albeit with new nuances if Obama wins.
• Foreign policy advisors of Ahmadinejad are openly counting on Iran's new   relations with Latin America as one of the net gains of his presidency.
• In   fact, the new level of cooperation between Iran and Bolivia and other Latin and   Central American countries is a timely, further confirmation of the strategic   vision and outlook that they have brought to the government, compared with the   Mohammad Khatami government that pushed the arch of detente with the West   almost to the exclusion of all else.
• Ahmadinejad's foreign policy team is now busy contemplating the next moves now   that the Russians are putting to the backburner their hesitations for closer   relations with countries labeled "rogue" by the West.
• "As far as Iran is concerned the recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation   Organization [SCO] in Dushanbe was a success because China and Russia agreed to   expand the role and input of observer nations at the SCO, and that includes   Iran," a Tehran political analyst told Asia Times Online.
• As a result, Iran is   today one small leap shy of fully joining the SCO, and membership is only a   matter of time as far as Tehran is concerned.
• Clearly, the windfalls from the Georgia crisis for Iran are multiplying and   Iran's deft Latin diplomacy is meant to add to the new dynamism for   geopolitical and geostrategic cooperation with Russia (and China).
• As a middle   power (and not a "tiny one" as derided by Obama recently), Iran as a result of   its active global diplomacy in the Non-Aligned Movement has a rather   disproportionate global influence that far outweighs its paltry contribution to   global economy (less than 1%),

  • Only because Russia is Iran's guarantor and protector. Without Russia, Iran would still be a squabbling country on the Gulf. She is Russia's shield and facade for moving into the areas of vital U.S. interests and ultimately America's national security.
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• and is well-positioned and predisposed to   bandwagoning with a new global anti-hegemonic front.
• Using its petrodollars to solidify its networks, Iran has already entered into   several economic agreements with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba; should   Ahmadinejad win re-election next year, his second term will likely deepen these   ties even further.
• At the same time, the prospect of closer Iran-Russia relations directly impacts   Washington's thinking about Iran, given White House's reluctance to consent to   a new round of US-Iran dialogue on Iraq's security and or to take Iran's   serious misgivings about a US-Iraq security agreement into consideration.
• Put simply, ignoring Iran is not an option for Washington any longer as Iran   can effectively act as Moscow's junior partner sowing the threads of organic   connection to the Latin (and indeed world's) leftist or populist governments.

  • Once more, as I stated: a front
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• The more organic, or multi-faceted, such ties, the more value and importance   attached to Iran by the key SCO nations, Russia and China,
• which can be seen in   the visit of Bolivia's president -
• Iran's diplomacy performs both regionally   and globally. 
  
• At this stage it is unclear if China actually favors such a new development, or   if Russia is resolved toward this line, since Moscow appears intent on a   measure of damage control with the West in the midst of these upheavals, and   certainly cooperation with the West on Iran's nuclear program can have the   protean value of healing some wounds.
• Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New   Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) and co-author of   "Negotiating Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume   XII, Issue 2, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping   Iran's nuclear potential latent", Harvard International Review, and is author   of   Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction. For his   Wikipedia entry, click here.

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• Russian Nuke Cruise In Venezuela Manoeuvres As US Watches
• by Staff Writers
   Moscow (AFP) Sept 8, 2008
• Russia said Monday it was dispatching a nuclear cruiser and other warships and planes to the Caribbean for joint exercises with Venezuela, the first such manoeuvres in the US vicinity since the Cold War.
• The announcement came amid soaring tensions between Russia and the United States, including over the presence of US naval vessels sent close to Russian shores to deliver aid to Georgia, but Washington downplayed its significance.
• 
  The heavy nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter the Great
• In a statement, a spokesman for the Russian navy said the joint manoeuvres would take place in November under an agreement sealed when the leaders of the two countries met in Moscow in July.
• Among the Russian ships to take part in the exercises would be the heavy nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter the Great, a vessel with massive firepower whose cruise missiles can deliver nuclear or conventional warheads.
• Foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said the Admiral Chabanenko, Russia's most modern anti-submarine destroyer, would also join the exercises, along with an unspecified number of anti-submarine naval aircraft.
• He said the exercise had been planned for some time and was "not in any way conected to the current situation in the Caucasus," where Russian forces last month fought a brief war with US-ally Georgia.

  • The sounds like a tit-for-tat since the U.S. made the same statement a few weeks ago when it held naval exercises with allied navys in the Black Sea.
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• "It is not aimed at any third country," he said.
• The announcement of the manoeuvres however came as tensions between the United States and Russia remained high and after Moscow questioned the use of US warships to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia following the conflict.
• Asked what he thought about the US naval presence near where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said earlier this month that Moscow would definitely respond, with "calm."
• In Washington, the White House, which has sharply criticised Russia over its actions in Georgia and which also has an openly antagonistic relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, shrugged off word of the manoeuvres.

• "We've seen the reports and we'll see how the exercise goes," US National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

    The Pentagon also said it was not concerned.
• "We exercise all around the globe and have joint exercises with countries all over the world. So do many other nations," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman.
• In its statement, the Russian navy said the joint manoeuvres with Venezuelan ships would include exercises in sea search and rescue as well as communications training, and would also have an unspecified aviation component.
• The Venezuelan navy announced Saturday that four Russian ships with almost 1,000 sailors aboard would carry out joint manoeuvres with the navy of Caracas' leftist government in Venezuelan territorial waters on November 10-14.
• The Peter the Great cruiser is one of what NATO refers to as "Kirov Class" heavy missile cruise ships, the world's largest naval cruisers.
• The ship is armed with the Granit long-range anti-ship missile system, which is known in the West as the Shipwreck missile. It also has a sophisticated air defence missile system capable of striking both air and surface targets.

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