Jeffrey Lux's List: Gold

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China to Diversify out of U.S. Dollars
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Edward Harrison | Sep 6, 2009

According to an account published in the Daily Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the Chinese government is quite anxious about money printing in the United States and the effect this printing could have on China’s dollar denominated reserve assets.

For months now, the Chinese have signalled growing unease with U.S. monetary policy. And now comes the clearest signal yet that they are moving away from the dollar. Cheng Siwei, a former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee, said point blank that the Chinese central bank was actively diversifying new reserve assets away from the U.S. dollar and into currencies like the Yen and the Euro. He also mentioned Gold as an alternative the Chinese are exploring.

The $2 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves the Chinese already have are a sunk cost. Going forward, the Chinese are free to do as they wish with incremental additions to reserves. To the degree that they sell dollars and buy gold, Yen or Euros, there can only be downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China’s green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed’s recourse to "credit easing".

"We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again," he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

"If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies," he said.

China’s reserves are more than – $2 trillion, the world’s largest.

"Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets," he added.

The comments suggest that China

國際金價漲 存摺1公克賣出1070元
【聯合報╱記者羅兩莎／即時報導】

2009.09.17 06:41 pm


國際金價再飆高，但受到台幣勁升影響，今天台銀黃金存摺1公克賣出牌告價仍為1,070元，不僅未同步上漲，甚至較昨天盤中最高價1,072元，反向下跌2元。

美元走軟，今天國際金價再衝高，盤中最高到每英兩1,023.9美元，較昨天亞洲盤的上漲逾10美元，但因台幣連續兩個交易日大升，致今天存摺牌告價格持平，也表示國人因台幣升值而能買到便宜的黃金。

【2009/09/17 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/

國際金價續強 創18個月新高
【經濟日報╱記者呂郁青／即時報導】

2009.09.17 05:12 pm


根據Bloomberg統計，紐約黃金期貨上漲9.75美元、或0.97%，每盎司來到1015.93美元。

金價繼續走強，主要是美元持續疲軟加上通膨預期隱憂擴大的影響。

新加坡大華銀投顧表示，從技術面來看，金價確立站上1000美元大關後，有機會突破去年3月17日1,032美元的高點，預估黃金開採公司獲利預期近期可望被各大券商大幅調升。

【2009/09/17 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

郎咸平：我们如何在虚拟经济中发现机会
2009年09月18日08:26　　来源：
我有话说　查看评论(10) 好文我顶(9)

　　2009年上半年，我们的股市涨了，楼市也涨了，汽车展更是人山人海，火得不得了。忧心忡忡一年多之后，我们的广大股民再也坐不住了，决定重返股票市场。接着，上涨行情又鼓励更多人入市。就像2007年一样，各种理论开始浮出水面，证明市场这样的走势是正确的，即便是最胆小的人也忍不住要投身入市大军。

　　有人就说了，郎教授，楼市、股市和汽车市场好像都反弹了啊！你以为这样就看透了吗？请你想一想，楼市为什么回暖？主要原因还是企业家所面临的两个困境没解决，制造业资金进入股市、楼市和车市。
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郎咸平：我们如何在虚拟经济中发现机会
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　　此外，2009年上半年，银行放出了7万多亿的信贷资金，由于企业家的两个困境没解决，因此部分信贷资金没有进入实体经济，而是进入了股市。银行信贷的急速扩张又造成了大家的通货膨胀预期，因此避险资金也不敢投入实体经济，而进入了股市和楼市。

　　因此进入股市的资金有三笔：（1）制造业资金，（2）信贷资金，（3）避险资金。进入楼市的资金有两笔：（1）制造业资金，（2）避险资金。此外，以国有企业为主的企业由于两大困境没解决，因此拿着大量的银行信贷资金开始疯狂买地，造成各地地王屡创新高。

　　股市、楼市和车市的亮点其实依托于企业家的两个困境。

　　机会并非只存在于内地的楼市和股市。中国内地、香港和台湾以及美国股市的对比，对于虚拟经济机会的把握更有帮助。中国内地跟台湾的股市走势是相同的，但是原因却并不相同，不能简单地解读为台湾股指受内地影响。台湾股指之所以上升是由于大量国际热钱的流入。

　　那么香港股市跟美国股市呢？两地股市从下降到上升的拐点竟然在同一天，这种巧合令人惊讶。如果找不到美国股指上升的原因，那我也找不到香港股指上升的原因。然而2009年五、六月份，国际大型投行纷纷对恒生指数33个成分股中的股票进行了正面评价，甚至鼓励买入，它们为什么要这么做？第四章将把中国内地与台湾以及香港与美国股指的变化联系起来,为股民找出可供操作的亮点。

　　那么决定黄金价格波动的长期因素是什么？然而事实就是很多人连这个最基本的问题都没搞清楚，就去投资纸黄金了。

　　通常来说，美元和黄金的走势刚好相反，美元涨的时候黄金跌，美元跌的时候黄金涨。其中原因就在于美国政府操纵金价从而拉抬美元。只有了解美国政府如何操纵黄金价格，才能找到投资黄金的亮点，虽然黄金并不是一个好的投资品种。

　　谈完虚拟经济的亮点之后，我们接着来谈实体经济的亮点。请注意，这些亮点可以缓解企业家所面临的两个困境。只要企业家把握这些亮点，将可有效地抵御这两个困境，突围而出。

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Soybeans, soy nuts and edamame, plus any products made from soy (like tofu, soymilk, etc.) can help to reduce the production of new cholesterol. A little can go a long way—aim for about 25 grams of soy protein a day (the amount in a cup of edamame). And those who are at an increased risk of breast or prostate cancer may want to skip it since too much of soy’s phyto-estrogens can act similarly to the body’s own estrogen (which has been shown to feed some hormone-dependent tumors).

Faber told the audience to put money in Asian equities and commodities. He said gold is important, but buy real gold, not derivatives, and keep the gold outside the U.S. The U.S. confiscated gold during the Great Depression, he noted. He, like Warren Buffett, Nouriel Roubini and others, thinks the dollar is destined to erode, though Faber said it could rebound over the next few months as signs of deflation stick around. “The dollar in the long run is a doomed currency,” he said. “This is the short of the century…The government’s policy is to make it worthless.”

"many other economists fear that exploding federal debt -- incurred partly to pay for more spending and tax cuts -- could trigger a new crisis that would destroy jobs.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/18/AR2009101801462.html?wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter
"

Many investors think of gold as a good hedge against a declining dollar. Since many investors believe this, it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Gold prices can rise when the dollar declines. However, most financial planners will tell you that you should have no more than 10% of your assets in gold.

ＩＭＦ賣黃金 殺傷力有多大
‧先探投資週刊 2009/09/29
受到美元貶值效應，國際資金流向黃金部位，一度將國際黃金每盎司價格推漲到一○二四．二八點的十八個月高點，距離先前黃金歷史新高的一○三三美元不到一％的距離。
【文／魏聖峰】

受到美元貶值效應，國際資金流向黃金部位，一度將國際黃金每盎司價格推漲到一○二四．二八點的十八個月高點，距離先前黃金歷史新高的一○三三美元不到一％的距離。在黃金來到相對高點之際，國際貨幣基金(ＩＭＦ)宣布將出脫四○三．三公噸的黃金部位，造成黃金價格回檔。

隨著黃金價格創新高，國際黃金股今年以來股價呈現大漲格局，黃金股的股價全面雞犬升天，在美國掛牌的ＳＰＤＲ黃金ＥＴＦ今年的最大漲幅超過二四％，南非黃金股的Angld American最大漲幅也有八九％，在香港股市掛牌交易的中國黃金股，最大漲幅幾乎都翻漲一到兩倍之多。

美元貶值拉抬黃金

過去黃金是金融市場的避險標的，一旦全球經濟出現系統性風險或者是通貨膨脹壓力上揚，全球股債價格重挫之時，只有黃金這類商品呈現一枝獨秀的漲勢。另外，黃金也是國際投資機構規避美元貶值風險的避風港。隨著金融工具日益發達，這波國際黃金價格大漲並不是暗示全球經濟面臨高通膨風險或是系統風險係數提高，而僅是反應美元貶值的現象。

這次美元貶值令美元指數面臨破底的主因，是國際投資機構看到美元的借貸利率很低，三個月期美元Libor利率目前已經跌到○．二八九三八％，比八月二十一日時的○．四％足足要下跌一一個基點；同一期間的日圓Libor利率僅從○．三九％下降到○．三四八七五％而已。

過去金融市場，利用利差交易(Carry Trade)賣出日圓轉換成熱錢到其他高殖利率投資商品投資，現在看到美元的借貸利率比日圓划算，乾脆直接承作美元的利差交易，然後把資金轉投資到新興股市或者是具有潛力的公司債，形成美元成為國際熱錢的主要供應者。借貸美元的投資機構算準聯準會短期內不會調高利率，鑑於美國經濟成長力道仍疲弱，未來一年聯準會可能僅會宣示性地調高利率一碼而已，不必擔心借貸利率突然上漲的因素，導致美元今年以來頻頻走貶。

對聯準會來說，美元貶值並沒有讓美國經濟體內通貨膨脹壓力急遽上揚，美元貶值還可以增強美國出口商品的競爭能力，稍微緩和失業率持續上揚的壓力；況且美元貶值還可以彌補美元的資本帳赤字。現階段美元貶值對整體美國經濟成長並不會不利，也就放手讓美元貶值。

在美元不斷貶值下，市場資金持續從美國金融市場流新興市場。原物料市場方面，全球經濟成長力道不強，對原物料的需求不是那麼強勁，市場熱錢追高原物料商品價格的意願不強，國際原油價格也沒能長期站上七三美元以上價位，全球經濟的通貨膨脹壓力不大。

這波國際原物料價格僅黃金價格創波段新高，其他國際原物料商品價格沒有跟漲，僅是資金規避美元貶值風險而已，沒有其他負面的意涵。在市場資金充裕下，全球股市仍處於高檔震盪格局，這可是金融市場首度出現股市和黃金齊揚的現象。

國際黃金股大漲

隨著黃金價格漲到波段新高，ＩＭＦ宣布釋出超過四百公噸的黃金庫存，其他手中握有高黃金庫存的國際主要央行也可能釋出黃金，等未來黃金價格若有回檔再行回補。對不斷貶值的美元來說，近期有可能出現止貶的現象。

種種跡象顯示，目前的黃金價格的確處於高檔，若要回補黃金部位，暫時等黃金回到每盎司九八○美元附近支撐後，再考慮是否承接黃金部位。

從黃金的技術形態來看，九月份以來黃金價格大漲五．八三％，這對短線黃金價格而言漲幅大，即使黃金短線能守住一千美元反彈，但反彈超過一○二○美元以後，甚至是一○三○美元，都將面臨龐大的賣壓，除非美元狂貶，黃金才會出現另一波強勁漲勢。

全球最大黃金持有機構ＳＰＤＲ，在截至九月十五日為止的一個星期，持續增加黃金庫存一五％，黃金價格上漲有利該公司持有部位，ＳＰＤＲ的黃金ＥＴＦ近期創下波段新高，市場投資人看好該公司的後市表現。

在香港掛牌的中國黃金類股，即使近期中國股市漲勢不若先前那樣凌厲，但黃金股的股價也都在近期創下波段新高。不過，這些黃金股短線漲幅已大，也面臨潛在的獲利了結賣壓，黃金價格已出現高檔震盪，連帶會影響這些國際黃金股的後市上漲力道。

Youth is like spring, an over praised season more remarkable for biting winds than genial breezes.

Autumn is the mellower season, and what we lose in flowers we more than gain in fruits.

"Mining Top News"

"Companies that have been Blacklisted as Scammers.Report Fraud to investigations@africa-union.za.org or telephone hotline :2721 448-5597 the list will be updated monthly. "

"Why Jim Rogers and Nouriel Roubini fight over gold
January 05, 2010 09:40:00 IST
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By Christopher Barker
It takes serious guts to call a top in a nine-year bull market for gold, and a flair for controversy to do so while suggesting that those who think otherwise "delude themselves." That is precisely what upstart uber-economist Nouriel Roubini has done, but I predict he will find himself gobbling down a guru-sized slice of humble pie as subsequent chapters of gold's epic revaluation unfold.

Roubini gained an eager worldwide audience for his macroeconomic perspectives after correctly predicting the global financial crisis back in 2006. He continues to display a keen understanding of multiple aspects of our ongoing financial predicament -- some of which I have quoted myself -- but veteran commodity expert Jim Rogers is "flabbergasted" by Roubini's declaration of a broader commodities bubble, observing that "for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets."

Jim Rogers has been proving that he understands markets for decades. The Quantum Fund co-founder is an enduring fixture in the world of commodities, and investors even have access to an index that bears his name through the Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Producers (NYSE: HAP) ETF (which features titans like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), and PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) among its top holdings). If you're wondering which voice to heed when it comes to forecasting prices for commodities, I recommend listening to the voice of experience.

Rogers reiterated his call for at least $2,000 gold -- the price that I have

" Guide to investing in gold and gold stocks

As gold price zoomed in 2009, gold stocks have turned out be the best destination for investors. There is a rush to invest in gold mining companies. Mining companies are scrambling for new sites in hot destinations like China. Is it safe to invest in gold stocks so that as the yellow metal price zooms, gold stocks will give you better returns?

Several bullion analysts have predicted that 2010 will be the year for gold stocks. Following is a a glossary that helps to investing gold and in junior resource gold companies:

Accelerated Supply: Gold reaching the market through lending and leasing before it is physically produced.

Accrued interest: The interest due on a bond since the last interest payment was made. The buyer of the bond pays the market price plus accrued interest.

Acid mine drainage (AMD): Highly acidic and metal-rich run-off resulting from the oxidation of sulphide minerals when they are exposed to air and moisture. Usually creates a red and orange sludge that requires treatment so as not to contaminate waterways.

Acquisition: The acquiring of control of one corporation by another. In “unfriendly” takeover attempts, the potential buying company may offer a price well above current market values, new securities and other inducements to stockholders. The management

Actual Volatility: Actual measured price volatility from the historical data records. See volatility and contrast implied volatility.

Adit: A horizontal access from the surface to underground mine workings; synonymous with a tunnel (contrast with shaft).
Advance premium forward: Forward contract offering a constant contango throughout contract life; similar to flat rate forward and stabilized contango.

Agglomeration: The practice of adding lime or cement to ore placed on the leach pad to bind clay material together and enhance permeability and recoveries.

American style: (Option) that can be exercised at any stage during its life, in other words at or before expiration date. Contrast E

"$1500 gold or higher this year and probability of $3000 longer term

Precious metals analyst Jeff Nichols is looking to continuing strength in gold in 2010 and beyond before it peaks and that silver may outperform gold this year too."

"高盛：金價 半年內將創新高
【經濟日報╱編譯季晶晶／綜合外電】

2010.01.15 03:22 am


基於景氣回升帶動需求，投資銀行高盛公司14日上修未來12個月的基本金屬價格預測，並預期金價將在六個月內創新高，原油今年平均價格將升至每桶90美元。

高盛向上調整未來12個月銅價預測至每噸7,855美元，高於先前預估的7,755美元；鎳價則上修至每噸17,195美元，高於先前的17,140美元；鋅價的預估值提高至每噸2,570美元，高於先前預測的2,565美元。

高盛也說，金價六個月內將攀至每英兩1,275美元，一年內達到1,365美元，銀價一年內也可望升至每英兩23美元。 "