Kheeran D's List: Trend 1: Global Economy

• Overall, the responses indicate that a “new normal” is settling in—for many companies, an environment less comfortable than the one they knew in the pre-crisis world. Most are still cutting costs, and a third of all respondents say that their companies are in crisis.
• executives remain skeptical about the economic health of their countries
• They also foresee additional significant changes in their industries and economies over the next five years, including a stronger government role in both
• three-quarters of the executives expect their companies to be in a stronger position in five years than they were before the crisis

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• About 12 per cent of Australians have missed a required minimum monthly payment on a credit contract in the past three months, with many missing two or more.

   

  Of those people with a mortgage, 13 per cent were late paying a household bill in the same period.

   

  Nearly a quarter of those struggling to pay bills owe more now than they did a year ago.

• The global economy is now "around" a turning point, with recovery already showing in some cases and in others the rate of contraction is slowing, G10 central bankers have announced.

   

  "We are, as far as growth is concerned, around the inflection point in the cycle,"
• "In all cases we see a slowing down of the decrease of the GDP that has been observed in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year,"

• THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its forecast for Australian economic growth, warning policy action in response to the global recession will have a limited impact.
• IMF forecast Australian growth would contract by 1.4 per cent in 2009
• world growth to decline by 1.3 per cent in 2009
• It sees global growth rising 1.9 per cent in 2010
• IMF also forecast unemployment in Australia to rise to 7.8 per cent by 2010, compared to a 9.2 per cent unemployment rate for advanced economies as a whole

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• The annual rate of inflation has fallen within the Reserve Bank's target range for the first time in three years.

  • Seems to contradict other reports....???? What's going on here?
• "In terms of inflation pressures in Australia generally, it's a better than expected number,"
• "It shows that price pressures that we were all concerned about last year have basically evaporated."

  • What does this mean?

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• inflation in the first three months of the year was 0.1%, compared with the 0.5% inflation rate expected
• annual inflation rate is the lowest rate in six quarters
• the biggest decliners in the March quarter included a 14.1% drop in deposit and loan costs, while petrol and diesel costs dropped 8.1%
• big contributor to the annual CPI headline rate of 2.5%. Stripping them out, the annual rate jumps to 3.3%.

  • What is keeping the fule prices down?
• Inflation, though, has not entirely disappeared as an issue, with the RBA's own gauge coming in at 4.15%
• Inflation rose in all capital cities except Perth where the end of the mining boom sapping the WA economy. Perth saw prices dip 0.1% in the quarter.

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• AUSTRALIAN wealth held in the form of shares, investments and property is collapsing at the fastest rate on record, shrinking an extraordinary 12 per cent in the past year
• only time wealth has fallen for four continuous quarters
• The collapse comes at the end of a decade in which wealth per Australian roughly doubled

  • So the wealth that has doubled in the last year has reduced by 11.8% in the last year. If someone invested 10 years ago they would still be up on the deal compared to 10 years ago.
• Residex data showed house price growth in every city but Perth (down 3.9 per cent) in the first three months of the year, with Melbourne prices up 0.5 per cent over the three months and 1.6 per cent in March

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