Kevin Kain's List: Essay 2

• After taking the oath of office from Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., Obama  looked out at the estimated 1.8 million people massed at the Capitol and  National Mall and delivered an inaugural address nearly as bracing as the  subfreezing temperatures.
• "Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real," Obama continued in  his 18-minute speech. "They are serious and they are many. They will not be met  easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America — they will be met."
• With the inauguration behind him, Obama went quickly to work. Within hours, the  administration moved to institute a 120-day moratorium on legal proceedings  against the approximately 245 detainees still being held at the Guantánamo Bay  Naval Base in Cuba. Obama had repeatedly pledged during the campaign to close  the prison; two days later he signed a second decree, ordering that the camp be  closed within one year
• As president-elect, Obama spent his first full week in Washington in early  January first warning of trillion-dollar federal budget deficits for years to  come and then making urgent appeals for public support for a close to  trillion-dollar stimulus to get the economy moving.
• Members of Congress from both parties and advocates and economic experts of all  persuasions agree on the need for a good-sized federal recovery program for the  seriously ailing U.S. economy. And most agree on a prescription that combines  spending increases and tax cuts. But there is sharp disagreement as to the  particulars between tax-cutting conservatives and pump-priming liberals, with  deficit hawks worried that both of the prescribed remedies could get out of  hand.
• alternative energy facilities and new school classrooms to computerized medical  records, but he insisted the plan would not entail "a slew of new government  programs." He reiterated his campaign promise of a "$1,000 tax cut for 95  percent of working-class families" but made no mention of business tax cuts  being included as sweeteners for Republican lawmakers.
• Allen Schick, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland in College  Park and formerly an economics specialist with the Congressional Research  Service, sees weaknesses with both components of the Obama plan. "We really have  no model to deal with the question of what's the right number" for the stimulus,  he says. "And we're not even sure that the stimulus will do the job, especially  if a lot of the spending is wasteful."
• From the opposite side, Chad Stone, chief economist with the liberal Center on  Budget Policy and Priorities, endorses Obama's approach. "Tax cuts should be  focused on people of low and moderate means, who are much more likely to spend  the extra money they get," he says
• "If the stuff that gets added is not very effective as stimulus or the things  that are good get pulled out, that would not be good," says Stone.  (continued below)
• Despite questions and concerns about the details, however, support for strong  action is all but universal. "We have no choice," said Mark Zandi, chief  economist of Moody's Economy.com and a former adviser to the McCain campaign,  also on "Meet the Press." "If we don't do something like this — a stimulus  package, a foreclosure mitigation plan — the economy is going to slide away."

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• He's started out quite impressively," says Fred Greenstein, professor of  politics emeritus at Princeton University in New Jersey and the dean of American  scholars on the U.S. presidency. "So far, it's been a striking rollout week."
• The Obama administration has met expectations for the first week," says Meena  Bose, chair of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American  Presidency at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. "There's been virtually no  drama, which is an indication of how he intends to run his administration."

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• On the economy, Obama has initiated a daily briefing from senior adviser Summers  in addition to the daily briefing on foreign policy and national security  issues. "Frankly," Obama told congressional leaders on Jan. 23, "the news has  not been good." The day before, the Commerce Department had reported that  new-home construction fell to its slowest pace since reporting on monthly rates  began in 1959. On the same day, new claims for unemployment benefits matched the  highest level seen in a quarter-century.
• The economy lost an average of more than 500,000 jobs a month in the last three  months of 2008. In fact, the actual job loss could have been over 600,000 a  month due to the way in which the Labor Department counts jobs in new firms that  are not in its survey.
• reaching the goal is to cut marginal tax rates.
• With this in mind, the package being debated does a good job of getting money  into the economy quickly.
• 62 percent of the spending in the package will reach the economy before the end  of 2010, with most of the rest coming in 2011.
• federal budget deficit is likely to exceed $2.5 trillion over the next two years  even before any stimulus is added. If deficit spending were truly stimulative,  the economy would be at risk of overheating by now, not sliding deeper into  recession.
• just 10 percent of the tax cuts sent out last spring were spent. The rest was  saved. Increased savings can be beneficial to household balance sheets, but  savings will not boost the economy right now.
• government spending doesn't create additional demand in the economy. Deficit  spending must be financed by borrowing, so while government spending increases  demand, government borrowing reduces demand. Worse, since the government's  likely to borrow between $3 trillion and $4 trillion over the next two years,  the enormous waves of government debt will likely drive interest rates up. That  would only prolong the recession and weaken the recovery.
• but it is still a huge improvement over doing nothing.

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• This article gives a great overview of the Obama presidency so far and its future. It has a good pro/con debate on the stimulus bill which will be very helpful to me. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-11

• CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate  bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that  within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to  a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had  done nothing.
• But Republicans and some moderate Democrats have balked at the size of the bill  and at some of the spending items included in it, arguing they won't produce  immediate jobs, which is the stated goal of the bill.

• The agency projected the Senate bill would produce between 1.4 percent and  4.1 percent higher growth in 2009 than if there was no action. For 2010, the  plan would boost growth by 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

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• Opposing viewpoint to my own that happens to be from nonpartisan agency. It offers statistics of both the short term and long term effects of the stimulus bill - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-10

• he lobbied hard for the speedy adoption of the economic stimulus package wending  its way through Washington.
• bipartisan support for the stimulus bill came to naught. The bill received no  Republican votes in the House and, on Monday, just three Republican yeas in the  Senate.
• seeking an effective bill and to distance himself from the partisan bickering on  Capital Hill
• “It’s a little hard for me to take criticism over this recovery package when  they presided over a doubling of the national debt,”

• He stressed that the bill would both spur employment now and set the stage  for a stronger economy over time. “My bottom line is, are we creating 4 million  jobs, and are we laying the foundation for long-term economic growth?” he  said.
• Making the case that some programs criticized by Republicans were in fact good  for the economy, he argued that making federal buildings more energy efficient  will create jobs quickly, as will weatherizing homes, while the efforts also  will save the federal government and homeowners money and reduce the country’s  reliance on foreign oil. He made similar arguments about replacing the  health-care system’s reliance on triplicate paperwork and hand-written  prescriptions with electronic medical records and prescribing.

• But he called the biggest mark of success an end to the economy’s  contraction, to job losses, and renewed investment by companies and individuals.  Throughout, he stressed the importance of the stimulus package, noting that  employment gives people “enough confidence to make purchases, to make  investments.”

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• A breakdown of the Administrations defense of the Stimulus Bill. It gives detail to the plans and how to measure it's sucess. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-10

• "The plan is not perfect. No plan is. I can't tell you for sure that everything  in this plan will work exactly as we hope, but I can tell you with complete  confidence that a failure to act will only deepen this crisis as well as the  pain felt by millions of Americans," he said.
• Responding to the president's news conference, House Minority Leader John  Boehner of Ohio was careful to direct his criticism at congressional Democrats,  not Mr. Obama.
• "It is not too late to craft a bipartisan plan that creates more jobs and helps  get our economy back on track, and Republicans stand ready to work with the  president to do this," he said.
• The federal government is the only entity left with the resources to jolt our  economy back into life,

• The president warned that failure to act boldly could lead to the same  stagnation that befell Japan in the 1990s. "As a consequence they suffered what  was called the 'lost decade,' where essentially for the entire '90s, they did  not see any significant economic growth," he said. "So what I'm trying to  underscore is...that this is not your ordinary, run-of-the-mill recession."
• he pledged more transparency, clearer oversight of the spending and far stricter  limits on executive compensation.
• The Senate vote Monday, 61-38

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• "Right now, given the concerns that we have over the size of this package and  all of the spending in this package, we don't think it's going to work," Boehner  told NBC's "Meet the Press."

• "And so, if it's the plan that I see today, put me down in the 'no' column,"  he said.

   

  On "Fox News  Sunday," McCain (R-Ariz.), whom Obama trounced in the general election, said  he's looking forward to negotiating, but "as it stands now, I would not support"  the plan. "We need to make tax cuts permanent, and we need to make a commitment  that there'll be no new taxes," McCain said. "We need to cut payroll taxes. We  need to cut business taxes."

• McCain and Boehner both discuss their issues with the Stimulus and Obama's economic plan. Good opposing viewpoints, along with quotes. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-10

• But questions about how to spend the money and concerns  about the last stimulus package under former President Bush, may create a  roadblock.

• "We begin this year and this administration in the midst of  an unprecedented crisis that calls for unprecedented action," he said in his  weekly radio and Internet address. "Just this week, we saw more people file for  unemployment than at any time in the last 26 years, and experts agree that if  nothing is done, the unemployment rate could reach double digits."

   

  Obama pleaded for quick action, warning, "a bad situation  could become dramatically worse."
• will create up to 4 million jobs over the next two years.
• "But there is one other thing that we are also very mindful of, which is money  has to be spent well. And that's why the president's put new emphasis on  accountability,"
• But a new national poll suggests that a majority of Americans think it will take  the country two years or longer to recover from the current recession. Only 13  percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released  Wednesday think the economy will recover within a year.
• Twenty-seven percent think it will take up to two years and 59 percent feel it  will take two years or longer to recover from the current recession, which has  already lasted 13 months.
• But CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll numbers released January 18 indicate that  nearly 6 in 10 Americans support an increase in government spending to rev up  the economy.

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• More quotes and stats about Stimulus. Both sides are represented and more specifics of what each side wants is presented. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-10

• President Obama has started to play the "catastrophe" card to sell his economic  stimulus plan, using yesterday's terrible January jobs report to predict doom  unless Congress acts. No doubt he'll get his way, but the tragedy of this first  great effort of the Obama Presidency is what a lost opportunity it is.

• A major cut in the corporate tax favored by Republicans could have been  added to Democratic public works spending for a quick political triumph that  might have done at least some economic good.

   

  Instead, Mr. Obama chose to let House Democrats write the bill, and they did  what comes naturally: They cleaned out their intellectual cupboards and wrote a  bill that is 90% social policy, and 10% economic policy. (See here for a case study.) It is  designed to support incomes with transfer payments, rather than grow  incomes through job creation.

• Mostly negative account of Obama's attempts to stimulate economy. Should be really helpful in finding opposing viewpoints. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-10

• We think it's a smart investment," Caterpillar spokesman Jim Dugan said of the  proposed infrastructure spending. "It's something we know can quickly create  jobs and help put people to work."
• Obama has touted green energy as a way to create jobs and reduce the country's  dependence on fossil fuels. The stimulus includes money to boost alternative  energy products and increase efficiencies in buildings.
• Many in the sector are hoping the stimulus will keep the industry growing. The  plan includes $14.4 billion for government energy efficiency and  renewable-energy programs, $4.5 billion for a smart electricity grid, $2.9  billion to weatherize modest-income homes and a tax-credit extension for  renewable-energy production.
• The stimulus could also make the government a big Detroit customer. Democrats  want to spend $600 million to replace the federal government's fleet of cars  with hybrid vehicles.

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• AP article breaking down other points of Obama stimulus. Specific information on alternative energy that will help with my essay. - Kevin Kain on 2009-02-11