Geeko friendly's List: Futurism

• Every now and again, it's useful to remind readers -- and myself -- just why structured thinking about the future should matter to people intensely concerned about today's problems
• When the world seems to be falling down all around us, can we afford to spend our time thinking about the future?
• Futurism -- or, as I prefer to articulate it, structured thinking about the future -- is a means of putting both the problems we face today and the solutions we might try in a larger context.
• It expands our understanding of the scope of the situation.
• It expands our understanding of the horizon of the situation.
• Not just how does this affect us now, but how would this affect us over time?
• In parallel, it allows us to think through what happens with different kinds of solutions we may want to use to deal with a problem.
• What's the potential for undesirable consequences? What kind of conditions result after this "solves" the problem?
• Again, you might say, "this isn't futurism, it's simply responsible thinking" -- again, sorely lacking in much of our current discourse.
• It expands our understanding of the kind of world we want.
• By bringing into focus both the scope of connections among issues, and the potential impacts and implications on the horizon, futures thinking allows us to begin to see the path we'd need to take to get to a better world -- or, at minimum, the paths we need to avoid in order to forestall a worsening situation.
• Futurism, structured thinking about the future, clarifies the responsibility and capacity we have to create a tomorrow worth living in.
• Heady stuff. And a bit presumptuous, too -- how can we think that we can see the future?
• We can't. We can only see possibilities.
• Even being completely wrong has value: figuring out why we were wrong, what we missed, can sometimes be even more illuminating than being right.
• There's a rapidly-growing variety of methods available to us, from scenario planning to simulations to futures-mapping to so-called "prediction markets." Perhaps the most exciting is something new: massively-collaborative forecasting.
• I have the good fortune to be part of the Superstruct project, a "massively-multiplayer forecasting game;" Superstruct will begin in early October, and thousands of people will work together to explore what the future could hold.
• Thinking about the future, and doing so in a careful, structured, open and collaborative way, makes us a stronger civilization.
• Focusing only the challenges of the present may seem imperative, especially when those challenges are massive and frightening. But without a sense of what's next, a capacity for understanding connections and horizons, and a vision of what kind of world we want, our efforts to deal with today's problems will inevitably leave us weakened, vulnerable, and blind to challenges to come.
• By ignoring tomorrow, we undermine today.

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• now dubbed the less-hostile-sounding Future Attribute Screening Technologies (FAST)
• Last year, New Scientist revealed that the US Department of Homeland Security is developing a system designed to detect "hostile thoughts" in people walking through border posts, airports and public places. The DHS says recent tests prove it works.
• sensors could spot people up to no good from their pulse rate, breathing, skin temperature, or fleeting facial expressions
• "We're still very early on in this research, but it is looking very promising," says DHS science spokesman John Verrico. "We are running at about 78% accuracy on mal-intent detection, and 80% on deception."
• Questions remain, however, as to how secure the system is. The machines could reveal health conditions like heart murmurs and breathing problems as well as stress levels - which would be an invasion of privacy.

  • hmm, interesting
• But Verrico says FAST has been through stringent privacy controls (pdf) and that the data is never matched to a name. It is only used to make decisions about whether to question someone, and then discarded.
• The trial technology was installed in a trailer because it is planned to be easily transportable, so that FAST trucks can appear at any sports or music event as required. They look set to become as regular a sight at such events as mobile toilets and catering trucks
• But is going to make a real difference? Or will bad guys learn to play the system and render it another piece of what expert Bruce Schneier dubs "security theatre".
  
    Given that the FAST approach is not much different to the long established - and long established as unreliable - polygraph, that certainly seems plausible.

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• Google's patent filing describes "devices, systems and methods" that would automatically poll nearby wireless services to find the best price for a voice or a data connection for a "portable communications device." That connection might come via a cellphone carrier, a WiMax provider, or even a Wi-Fi hotspot. According to the patent, users can either manually select the bid they like best or they can allow the device to connect automatically with the lowest-cost provider.
• The upshot? Just as advertisers know they're always getting the market price for keywords on Google's AdWords system, wireless users would always get the market price for wireless data service -- or phone calls. The system could potentially free users from cellphone contracts and locked phones that tie them to one service provider and allow them to switch from one carrier to another, seamlessly, based on which carrier had the lowest price at that moment.

  • RA
• Granted, a lot of obstacles stand in the way of this vision, not least of which would be the unwillingness of entrenched cellular carriers to play ball. Also, the system would require compatible software not only on handsets, but also on any potential wireless connection points -- a major infrastructure hurdle. But the patent is striking for its scope -- and for the glimpse it gives of Google's lofty wireless ambitions.
• The advantages to the system are clear. It would help users have access to the lowest cost network at all times.
• "In addition to cost as a factor in selecting appropriate telecommunications providers, users may opt for alternative auction models based on maximal bandwidth offered, best coverage/reliability, or some combination of options," says the patent.
• To be sure, the patent may not amount to much. Even Google with its might may not be able to break the stranglehold of telecom carriers in North America, and it is unlikely most wireless carriers or telecom service providers would play ball.

  • RA
• But even if telecom carriers don't sign on, Google can potentially pull this off -- albeit slowly. Last year, the company participated in the federal government’s auction of wireless spectrum in the 700 Megahertz band. Though Google failed to win any licenses, it bagged a commitment from the Federal Communications Commission that spectrum owners, Verizon and AT&T, among others, can't block out internet or telecom rivals.

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• Because it’s starting to look like one of the most significant societal changes we’ll have to deal with in the near future is that it may soon become nearly impossible to tell lies. Or, more specifically, to tell lies without a really really good chance of getting caught.
• the accuracy of brain-scanning lie-detectors will become radically better within
   the next few years.
• Technologies based on MRI will almost certainly become accurate enough that we should start using them in court. Whether or not we will is a different question, although having done jury duty a couple of times I’m absolutely convinced that, overall, justice would be much better served than with our current system where the skill (or ineptitude) of the lawyer ends up being far more influential on the verdict than the evidence available in the case.

  • RA

• The Department of Defense certainly believes this is possible - they’ve called for the development of lie detectors that can be used without the subject knowing they are being assessed. (The Department of Homeland Security is also getting in on the act.) And if they’re successful, I’d personally rather have this technology available to the general public than to have it solely controlled by a group of military elites. Not that I’m skeptical of their trustworthiness or anything. <cough><eyeroll><cough>

   

  There is also work being done on algorithms that can detect potential lies purely based on word-choice in written correspondences, and obviously voice-stress analysis is eventually going to get much more sophisticated as well.

   

  Finally, there is some very interesting research going on to detect lies by analyzing the speaker’s face - both via the recognition of microexpressions and with the aid of infrared photography.

  • ways in which this will potentailly be implemented
• Finally, even if many of these technologies don’t all work perfectly, they really don’t have to. As long as people believe that the chance of getting caught in a lie is a significant probability, they will adjust their truthfulness accordingly.

  • very true
• Of course it’s going to be an arms-race, just like everything else. There will be technologies developed that can counteract various lie-detection systems, there will be legislative hurdles put in place to prevent the use of these systems, etc., etc. But ultimately I have to believe that the baseline for how easy it is to tell an untruth will be changed significantly. Which, in turn, could dramatically affect the way that we deal with each other. Can we survive without the little white lies we use as social lubrication? The small untruths (like the foma in Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle) that we need to keep us happy?

  • RA
• Even though we may not have the technology yet to accurately and consistently detect when someone is lying, we will eventually be able to look back at the video/audio that is being captured today and determine, after the fact, whether or not the speaker was being truthful.
• certain peoples - I’m thinking specifically of politicians both foreign and domestic - should be made aware that anything they say in public will eventually be subject to retroactive truth-checking… Because it seems to me that someone needs to start recording all the Presidential debates NOW with a nice array of infrared and high-definition cameras. And they need to do it in a public fashion so that every one of these candidates is very aware of it and of why it is being done.

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• The top part of the bionic hands are now going to consist of a rubber skin filled with thick silicon gel. If an object should slip, the elastic skin transmits the vibrations through the gel to acoustic sensors, which provide instant feedback, and the motors can tighten their grip. Also, the finger’s bone is covered with electrodes, which change the electric conduction according to the pressure that helps the user to feel.

• This would get applied to the steel as one of four coats of paint: an undercoat, a layer of dye-sensitized solar cells, a layer of electrolyte or titanium dioxide, and finally a protective coating.The whole process would take place as the steel sheets get passed through rollers as they are manufactured
• The photovoltaic paint consists of a layer of dye and a layer of electrolytes.

  • RA
• If All of Corus' Steel Was Used...
   The original article extrapolates on Corus’ annual production of 100 million square meters of steel sheets to say that if all of this were “given a lick of solar paint” that it total it could have a potential capacity of 9000 GW, at an assumed efficiency for the solar paint of 11%.
• At Least a Coupld of Questions Remain...
   That’s not the only assumption in that calculation: It also assumes that all of that steel will be used in locations and for applications suitable for generating solar power. Additionally, even with a protective coating applied to the steel, the durability of the surface could come into question. And unless a method of reapplying the paint post-manufacturing is developed, then the lifetime of the product might be shorter than desired.

  • what this would mean and problems

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• lexible screen that you can bend upwards and it turns the newspaper page. Cool stuff. Except that it takes awhile to load, isn’t all that flexible, and is black and white.

• How do you create a Results-Only-Work-Environment (ROWE) for yourself or a company — and increase profits — by tweaking your surroundings?
• Thanks to a sophisticated office structure, the headquarters of Interpolis insurance in the Dutch town of Tilburg has freed up 51 percent of their working areas, cut 33 percent of construction and equipment costs, and reduced office usage expenses by 21 percent.
• The man behind this revolutionary and visionary concept of the 7000 square metre and “Tivoli” project was Gijs Nooteboom of the consulting firm Veldhoen + Company. In an interview, he explains to me why the Interpolis concept represents all future office building, the reasons why we will spend more time working from home and on travel and why offices are basically old-fashioned but still needed:
• he man behind this revolutionary and visionary concept of the 7000 square metre and “Tivoli” project was Gijs Nooteboom of the consulting firm Veldhoen + Company. In an interview, he explains to me why the Interpolis concept represents all future office building, the reasons why we will spend more time working from home and on travel and why offices are basically old-fashioned but still needed:
• What are the new tasks of the management ? No longer to check whether someone is there, but to define the output and control it. It takes months to incorporate this culture into a company.

  • !

• A considerable effort. What are the benefits for the company?

   

  Nooteboom: The company requires 50% less square meters. All cleaning and other maintenance costs will be reduced accordingly. In addition, Interpolis increased 20 percent in productivity through flexibility and sick leave, by nine percent 10 years ago, now dropped to two and a half percent. Thirdly, it is good for image and culture of the company - Interpolis receives 90,000 visitors a year. The office is marketing tool number one.
• freedom of choice: What to do when and where? You can freely decide on work time and place more or less, depending on the function. Secondly, it is now festive to come into the office. It is an open and transparent work space designed for meetings and exchange
• During the telephone call one will be able to see the image of each other, exchange data, show presentations and work together on documents. Therefore there will be less business travel than today.
• The concept of the office is basically old-fashioned, but we still need it. It will be used almost solely for meetings in the future. More and more companies will let their employees work from the home or while traveling.
• First, I want positive emotional associations with each object within my visual field. Limiting associations is often better than careful selection.

  • !!!
• The greenhouse you see is essentially a private rain forest with automatic ion generators and timed water systems. It is entirely self-contained with eight sun roofs and no openings. This is the morning oxygenation chamber where I have breakfast. I love it.
• Second, I limit misbehavior by limiting options. Notice that I have no shelves. This discourages accumulating papers and encourages both elimination and immediate digital note-taking. When in doubt, I take a digital photograph of documents (I prefer this to a scanner, which consumes real estate).

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• Is there such a thing as architectural capitaulation, whereby the nadir of one particular style or aesthetic is reached and beyond that point everything surges in the opposite direction?

• Pritzker Prize winner Thom Mayne has predicted that Dubai will become an “ecological disaster” if development there continues in its current direction.
• the US architect said the private sector’s dominance in the Gulf state had led to a lack of joined-up planning and that this — combined with the immense speed of development — would lead to a major crisis in the future.

• This prototype was developed by Behrokh Khoshnevis of the University of Southern California.
• A computer-controlled crane or gantry will build houses efficiently without any manual labor. It will use a quick-setting concrete-like material and will build up structures in a layer-by-layer fashion. This system will be adept at erecting walls of almost any shape and specification and can finish a full-fledged house in a matter of a day without any breaks. In addition to the savings on labor costs, the machine is believed to be eco-friendly in contrast to the standard home construction method, which churns up to seven tons of waste and fumes.

• A tenfold increase in carbon productivity sounds daunting, but it is a type of challenge that humankind has met before. U.S. labor productivity increased tenfold over a 125-year period from 1830 to 1955. We now need a clean-energy revolution on the same scale as the Industrial Revolution. But we probably have less than 40 years before emissions lead to irreversible damage. The clean-energy revolution has to happen three times faster than the Industrial Revolution did.
• country by country and industry sector by industry sector. Overall, the shift to a low-carbon economy would require new global capital investment averaging $570 billion per year between 2010 and 2030.
  
  This sounds like a lot, but it is only about 2 to 4 percent of expected capital expenditures during this period. And because the money would largely go into long-life assets (e.g., better buildings, cleaner power sources, low-emissions transport), most of it would be financed through borrowing over time.
  
• our analysis estimates that 70 percent of the technologies needed are either available today or are likely to be commercially viable in the coming decade. Renewable technologies, such as solar, wind, and geothermal, already account for 12 percent of Germany's power today and have the potential for dramatic expansion. For example, we estimate that the renewables share of U.S. power could almost triple from 8 percent today to 23 percent by 2030 at a reasonable cost.

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• be sure to watch the ::slideshow.

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• biodegradable moss planter at the Tokyo Fiber Sensware exhibition definitely stood out. Japan-based flower artist Makoto Azuma collaborated with Unitika Ltd.
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• Dr. Danijel Rebolj
• V računalniku ustvarite popoln digitalni model zgradbe, z vsemi stopnicami, okni, napeljavami. Na izbrano zemljišče pripeljete poseben visokoločljivostni projektor in ga čvrsto pritrdite nekaj metrov nad tlemi. Vanj vnesete digitalni model želene zgradbe. Na načrtovani tloris nanesete potrebno količino bionanorobotov, umetno ustvarjenih mikroorganizmov, programiranih za proizvodnjo ogljikovih nanocevk. Prižgete projektor, ki začne oddajati različne valovne dolžine svetlobe in pošiljati ukaze »nanodelavcem«, ti pa na podlagi prejetih ukazov atome ogljika sestavljajo v različne strukture karbonskih nanocevk, plast za plastjo. Če gradijo stene, izdelujejo inertne strukture, če gradijo napeljavo, mora struktura ogljikovih atomov v nanocevkah omogočati elektroprevodnost, če so na vrsti okna, pa prozornost materiala. Celotno zgradbo zgradite iz enega materiala, ogljika, ki ga bionanoroboti pridobijo kar iz okoliškega zraka. V nekaj deset dneh imate novo hišo. Projektor ugasnete, kar je znak bionanorobotom, naj se ugasnejo oziroma umrejo tudi sami.
• Potem je tu še izdelava stekla, plastike, prevoza materiala ... vse to ni več potrebno.
• Po izračunih bi s takim načinom gradnje glede na gostoto ogljika v zraku lahko zgradili približno meter višine na deset dni. Površina zgradbe bi bila omejena zgolj s količino bionanorobotov in zmogljivostjo projektorja oziroma projektorjev.
• Najbrž pa bo težko z eno potezo rešiti vse probleme hkrati - izkoriščanje sončne energije, odstranjevanja ogljika in njegovo skladiščenje v zgradbah. Ampak že samo delna rešitev bi znala biti zelo uporabna.
• A ker je dr. Rebolj prepričan, da bi morala biti ta tehnologija javno dobro, je z objavo koncepta, poimenovanega n2mBuilding, pohitel, saj, kot pravi, že objavljene zamisli ni mogoče patentirati.

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