Pogie 's List: Afghanistan

The United States does not have an Afghan government that is effective. As such, the Afghan situation is indeed very reminiscent of our Vietnam problem. On the other hand, the Taliban are not North Vietnam. There is no reason to believe Afghan leaders will commit suicide and that Afghanistan cannot remain a divided but a functioning state with our provision of equipment, training, air support and economic assistance-and possibly an American-brokered peace settlement. After all, Kabul has enormous manpower and material advantages. Nor by all accounts is al-Qaeda the factor it once was in Afghanistan. Nor does this approach preclude a continuing effort on our part to keep after it.\n\nEven so, the Taliban have one major advantage: they are not aliens in a strange land. Whatever our concern for the Afghan people and their lack of affection for the Taliban, the Taliban have the nationalist card and are fighting outsiders, as they have done in the recent past. Moreover, without much training and far less outside help they are able to survive the much larger and far better equipped Afghan and American forces. They also have the choice and capability of running away and fighting another day.\n\nWhatever may be negotiated with the Taliban now, it is not likely to take place while American ground forces are still in Afghanistan, nor is any agreement worked out while the United States is there in such force likely to last. Some sort of deal does offer an excuse for an earlier American departure. We can be surprised here.\n\nNor does an early departure of ground forces mean that Pakistan is finished. Pakistani leaders will not commit suicide and they will continue to deal with their own Taliban with whatever help they can get from the United States. There is ample reason for us to continue large-scale economic and military assistance. The major problem is likely to be Indian-Pakistan competition in Afghanistan, which could mean a change in Pakistan's approach to the Afghan Taliban and to Kashmir.