Ashwinbaindur's List: Climate change negotiations

• The recent coup in the   Maldives has caused consternation in the United   States and India, arousing fears that the   archipelago is falling into the hands of Islamic   extremists, that its political instability could   somehow increase China's influence in the   strategic sea lanes of the Indian Ocean, and that   India now faces a new security threat to its   southern flank.
• In fact, some Maldivians were arrested in Pakistan   in 2010 for terrorist activity and training at   camps in South Waziristan. Indian Defense Minister   A K Antony recently discussed how the November   2008 Mumbai attacks jolted his country into   recognition of such maritime security threats.
• In fact, the   government requested US and Indian assistance when   Somali piracy became a problem for the Maldives   National Defense Force (MNDF) to contend with.   Terrorist groups will undoubtedly try to recruit   in the Maldives, but the country's leadership   understands the implications of terrorism for its   economy and welcomes counterterrorism assistance   from the US.
• Second, China does not   possess the capabilities to add the Maldives to   its supposed "string of pearls" in the region.   While China has become the only non-South Asian   country to set up an embassy in the Maldives and   sends the largest number of tourists to the   islands, it cannot compete with India's   civilizational ties and security offerings. the   Maldives has even sought to purchase land in India   for the relocation of its citizens in case they   become environmental refugees as a result of   climate change and rising sea levels. The MNDF   also benefits from a significant amount of   military assistance from India, including   counter-piracy help, maritime surveillance,   training, and surveys. A review of annual reports   from the Indian Ministry of Defense reveals that   the Maldives has more interactions with the Indian   Navy and Coast Guard than any other country in the   Indian Ocean. Conversations with MNDF officers   last year confirmed their need for India's help   with capacity-building efforts, as the Maldivian   military does not possess the ability to patrol   all its dispersed islands. No matter which leader   is in power - Waheed, Nasheed, or even Gayoom -   the Maldives does not want to forgo India's   security assistance.

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