November 16, 1997, Seattle Times - Knight-Ridder Newspapers, American May Win Guyana's Presidency, by Don Bohning,

November 16, 1997, Seattle Times - Knight-Ridder Newspapers, American May Win Guyana's Presidency, by Don Bohning,

JANET ROSENBERG JAGAN, the Jewish-American widow of former Guyana President Cheddi Jagan, is supported in her bid by the People's Progressive Party, a party made up mostly of the East Indian community. Her opposition, the Peoples National Congress, is mostly Afro-Guyanese.

GEORGETOWN, Guyana - The script sounds more like the teaser for a soap opera than Guyana's upcoming general elections:

Can Janet Rosenberg Jagan, a Jewish-American grandmother from Chicago, reach the pinnacle of political power in a country she has called home for more than half a century?

Voters will decide Dec. 15 in this sparsely populated, Idaho-sized, ethnically divided and English-speaking country on the northeast shoulder of South America.

The current prevailing wisdom is she will be its next president.

The outcome probably will have little consequence beyond Guyana's isolated borders and perhaps the Caribbean region, but the exercise is one of the more intriguing in an era of electoral democracy in the hemisphere.

The main matchup is between two ethnically based former Marxist-Socialist parties vying to see who can offer the best market-based economic future for the 700,000 people in the onetime British colony, which gained its independence in 1966.

One, the People's Progressive Party and its lesser coalition partner, Civic, is headed by Jagan, 77. She is the widow of President Cheddi Jagan, an avowed longtime Marxist who died in office March 6. The PPP's major support base is Guyana's East Indian community, which makes up half of the population.

The other, the Peoples National Congress, is headed by former President Desmond Hoyte, 68. Hoyte became president in 1985 when President Forbes Burnham died in office.

The PNC's core support comes from Afro-Guyanese who represent one-third to 40 percent of the population, depending on whether those of mixed ancestry are counted.

Burnham and Jagan once were partners in the struggle for self-rule but parted ways before Burnham took the country to independence in 1966 with the support of the United States and Britain.

By the time Burnham died, he had converted Guyana into the most socialized state in the hemisphere after Cuba, nationalizing 90 percent of the economy and retaining power through rigged elections.

Hoyte, as president from 1985 to 1992, reversed those policies, gradually opening up the economy and political system. Some say he acted under international pressure from financial institutions and leaders including U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Whether under duress or not, the country changed radically under Hoyte.

One result was that he lost the presidency in 1992 in a vote regarded as Guyana's first free and fair election since independence. Jagan became president and continued the free-market policies.

Now Jagan's widow and longtime political partner is attempting to keep his legacy alive as the party's presidential candidate.

There are no reliable public opinion polls in Guyana but most observers consider her the front-runner. There is doubt, however that she will serve out the five-year term, if elected.

Hoyte disputes those who see Jagan as the likely next president, declaring in an interview that he sees his chances as "excellent." He says the PPP-Civic government has "squandered" the "tremendous goodwill" with which it entered office in 1992, through corruption and lack of leadership.

Hoyte, who is running a campaign with a heavy emphasis on private sector development, says the PNC is taking on a more youthful look with about half its parliamentary candidates under 35.

For her part, Jagan says the PPP is emphasizing "what we've done for five years" and reminding people "if they don't vote for us we might go back to the difficult period of 28 years of PNC rule . . . I don't think there is anyone in Guyana who wants to repeat what we went through before."

The election is likely to be the last for both Jagan and Hoyte, given their age and history of health problems. It already is a watershed in Guyana's political history, with neither Cheddi Jagan nor Burnham on the scene for the first time since the 1950s.

The top of the ticket presents a problem for the PPP in that neither Jagan nor Interim President Sam Hinds is Indo-Guyanese, like the party's support base. Hinds, who was prime minister until Cheddi Jagan's death, is Afro-Guyanese.

To remedy that, the PPP has named Barrath Jagdeo, the youthful East Indian finance minister, in the third spot on the parliamentary slate and has named him a vice-presidential candidate.

Under Guyana's constitution, the leader of the party with the highest percentage of votes becomes president. Of the 65 parliamentary seats, 53 are allocated by party on the percentage of votes won. Another 12 are determined through regional mechanisms.

While Jagan is seen as the front-runner in the presidential race, there is a question whether the PPP-Civic ticket will win a majority of the seats at stake.

Failure to reach a majority would force PPP-Civic to work out a coalition with any of the eight smaller parties that might win seats in Parliament.

The election comes at a time that some see as the beginning of the end for ethnic politics as both parties appear to be making an effort to broaden their base.

"Both parties have made an effort to incorporate other ethnic candidates on their slates but whether it's window dressing or a real effort to diversify is the big question," says Mike McCormack, co-president of Guyana's Human Rights Association.