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Prof Spence does not ignore the risks, but sees more grounds for optimism.

He points to the ballooning number of university graduates, the emergence of grassroots civil groups, and the vast improvement in the education levels of top leaders as evidence that change will have to come.

"The whole idea of representation is being explored. Remember China had a hard time with representative government, which fell apart under the warlord era [in 1915].

"China is backtracking into the past, looking for ways of making changes. We could wish they changed much faster, but we should be glad they are changing at the speed they are," he says.

Hear Professor Jonathan Spence deliver the 2008 Reith lectures:

BBC Radio 4, Tuesdays from 3 June, 0900BST

但当信息逐渐开放，人们发现自己曾经确信的东西不过是一种欺骗时，一种玩世不恭、嘲讽的态度开始在社会中弥漫。此刻，宣传机构和公众之间开始了一场游戏。前者在惯性的轨道上继续滑行，而后者从翘翘板的盲目相信的一端，滑向了什么也不相信的另一端。

但对极权体制犹在的恐惧，使游戏继续运转。人们习惯了在公然的谎言中生存，并熟练的、习惯性的从相反的角度去理解一切官方的宣扬。但表面上相安无事的相处，却通向了危险之路——政治与社会肌体被严重的腐蚀。政府在宣传所带来的幻像中，丧失了对真实世界的理解，宣传的畅通无阻的效果，继续麻痹着权力本身，它的反应越来越迟缓，越来越依赖惯性而非智力判断、信念原则生存。公众也同样变得越来越怀疑和怯弱，他们或许知道该反对什么，却不知道该建设什么，他们也逐渐失去了直接说出反对的道德勇气，长期生活在谎言与怀疑中，也使人们缺乏力量与信心与建构起社会网络和社会机构。

奥运危机将让中国领导人逐渐意识到第四维（fourth dimension）的存在，中国迄今为止很少注意到它。第四维存在于国际媒体与非政府组织所产生的国际公众舆论精神空间。在理论上，媒体与非政府组织没有实权。在实际上，它们有实力，因为它们塑造了国际舆论。全球反对中国奥运的示威者在数量上可能微不足道，但他们的全球影响力惊人。这种扩大效应来源于第四维。

　　中国人对第四维缺乏认识，这也表现在他们组织博鳌论坛的方式上。博鳌论坛是达沃斯论坛的中国竞争者。出于中国政府巨大的双边影响力，很多政府和商界高层会出席每一次博鳌论坛。但它缺少达沃斯的火花，因为它没能邀请独立知识分子、媒体和小说家及剧作家等文化人士——他们驱动第四维的国际生活。

For the authors of Gongjian, the recent history of “color revolutions” in Eastern Europe and Central Asia is a lesson in the dangers of freer media, and it underpins the CCP’s determination to “control” and “use” the press.

The reform document suggests control will continue to be the party’s guiding principle for media policy for years to come, that a change in the role of the press is not in the cards even as the party pushes ahead with “political reform.”

Gongjian does make other statements about the need for media development, “supervision by public opinion” and the creation of a press law. Look for more about these topics in a future post.