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Weiye Loh's Library tagged Risk   View Popular, Search in Google

Feb
12
2012

  • Don’t fall into the trap of feeling guilty, especially if you have the luck of studying in such a rich place. All this bullshit like, “Somalian children are starving....” No! Somalian children are not starving because you have a good time here. There are others who are much more guilty. Rather, use the opportunity. Society will need more and more intellectual work. It’s this topic of intellectuals being privileged—this is typical petty-bourgeois manipulation to make you feel guilty. You know who told me the best story? The British Marxist, Terry Eagleton. He told me that 20 or 30 years ago he saw a big British Marxist figure, Eric Hobsbawm, the historian, giving a talk to ordinary workers in a factory. Hobsbawm wanted to appear popular, not elitist, so he started by saying to the workers, “Listen, I’m not here to teach you. I am here to exchange experiences. I will probably learn more from you than you will from me.” Then he got the answer of a lifetime. One ordinary worker interrupted him and said, “Fuck off! You are privileged to study, to know. You are here to teach us! Yes, we should learn from you! Don’t give us this bullshit, ‘We all know the same.’ You are elite in the sense that you were privileged to learn and to know a lot. So of course we should learn from you. Don’t play this false egalitarianism.”
  • it’s no longer a question of knowledge. Today many, even sociologists, have this wonderful idea of how, although we live in a society of knowledge—even scientific knowledge—[it] is becoming more and more contingent, non-binding. I think it was the German theorist Ulrich Beck who drew attention to the simple fact: today we speak about expert opinions. Are we aware how paradoxical this term is? The idea is that we ordinary people have opinions. They tell you the truth. Now experts all of a sudden are telling us different opinions and we have to decide how, who knows, if even they don’t know. This is the tragedy of our predicament of freedom of choice. The problem is...we are often forced to choose without having serious cognitive coordinates of how or what to choose.... The price is that science is no longer a homogenous science but it’s turning into kind of a pluralistic field of opinions.
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Oct
18
2011

"Dread risk" was characterized by Paul Slovic in his classic 1987 article in terms of its "perceived lack of control, dread, catastrophic potential, fatal consequences, and the inequitable distribution of risks and benefits."  The key terms in that description is perceived.  Slovic provides evidence that expert judgments of risk sometimes run counter to judgments by lay people, and he provides nuclear power as a canonical example.  Most experts find nuclear power to be a relatively low risk technology, whereas the public finds it to be high risk. The difference has to do with "dread risk."

Risk Perception Dread Risk Nuclear


  •  Former Japanese Prime Minister Nato Kan this week provides a clear example of "dread risk" this week:
     
     Former prime minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, said he experienced a  “spine-chilling” feeling when he thought that Tokyo might have had to be  evacuated in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident.
     
     In  an interview published on Tuesday, Kan said he feared Tokyo and its  vicinities might have been rendered uninhabitable by the nuclear  catastrophe, and that it would have been “impossible” to evacuate the  30-million population living in the area.
     
     “Deserted scenes of  Tokyo without a single man around came across my mind,” he was quoted as  saying in the interview published by Tokyo Shimbun newspaper. “It  really was a spine-chilling thought”.
     
     The former prime minister  said that he thought nuclear plants were safe, thanks to Japan’s  technology. “I changed my mind” after this spring’s disaster, he added.
     
     If  the uninhabitable zone around the Fukushima plant had to spread out to  100 or 200 kilometers, “Japan wouldn’t stand as a country”, Kan said.
     
     His  conclusion was that, taking into account the risk, there is no choice  but to become independent of nuclear power plants. If an accident that  could make half the country uninhabitable is possible, that risk cannot  be taken, “even if it was once in a century”, Kan said.
  • Many experts will argue that the answer here would be to better educate the public.  But in his 1987 article  Paul Slovic suggests caution,
     
     Attempts to "educate" or reassure the public and bring their risk perceptions in line with those of industry experts appear unlikely to succeed because the low probability of serious reactor accidents make empirical demonstrations of safety difficult to achieve.  Because nuclear accidents are perceived as unknown and potentially catastrophic, even small accidents will be highly publicized and may produce large ripple effects.
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Sep
12
2011

On many topics of risk there are a wide range of legitimate points of view which collectively span a large range, and there is benefit for companies to selectively interpreting such risks in a way that is beneficial to their bottom line.

Insurance Risk Climate Change Climate Science Reality

  • In 1888 the city of Sundsvall in Sweden, built of wood, burned to the ground. A group of reinsurers, Swiss Re among them, let Sweden’s insurers know there was going to be a limit in the future on losses from wooden houses, and it was going to be low. Sweden began building with stone. Reinsurance is a product, but also a carrot in the negotiation between culture and reality; it lets societies know what habits are unsustainable.
     
     More recently, the company has been working with McKinsey & Co., the European Commission, and several environmental groups to develop a methodology it calls the “economics of climate adaptation,” a way to encourage city planners to build in a way that will be insurable in the future. A study of the U.K. port of Hull looks at potential losses by 2030 under several different climate scenarios. Even under the most extreme, losses were expected to grow by $17 million due to climate change and by $23 million due to economic growth. How Hull builds in the next two decades matters more to it than the levels of carbon dioxide in the air. A similar study for Entergy (ETR), a New Orleans-based utility, concluded that adaptations on the Gulf Coast—such as tightening building codes, restoring wetlands and barrier islands, building levees around chemical plants, and requiring that new homes in high-risk areas be elevated—could almost completely offset the predicted cost of 100-year storms happening every 40 years.
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Jul
18
2011

  • some other research showing that Europeans who believe in the afterlife actually have a lower work ethic. It seems that the religious work ethic in Europe is more to do with securing rewards in this life rather than the next.
  • people in risky environments tend to be more religious, and I suspect that by participating in religious ceremonies these individuals are hoping that the gods will improve their fortune. What's more, we know that they can expect to get support in their hour of need from their co-religionists - and so there is a double benefit from going to religious services!
Jul
13
2011

Risk is a very complex topic, since it's all about things we can't predict, which just about includes everything. Many aspects of risk are studied by researchers all over the world. In the Big Risk Test, which is now live as part of BBC Lab UK, we want to find out how people deal with risk, particularly to try and understand what makes people have such different opinions and feelings about life's chances.

Risk Uncertainty Mathematics

Jul
1
2011

That which cannot be controlled must be prevented. Today, that means preventing the threat of climate change and eradicating nuclear weapons. But we cannot afford efforts to address one challenge that end up aggravating the other. Attempting to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions through nuclear energy, thereby fueling the dangers of the ultimate global incendiary – nuclear war – could be the most tragic of all miscalculations.

Governmentality Risk Benefits Nuclear Climate Change

  • while the Fukushima disaster is attracting overdue global attention to nuclear safety and security, and provoking a reconsideration of nuclear power, its implications for nuclear weapons remain largely unremarked. The nuclear reactions that drive reactors and weapons are the same, as are the radioactive products that are dispersed by wind, rain, and water if released, with the same lack of respect for borders and the same indiscriminate long-term cancer and genetic hazards.
  • At Fukushima, a perfect storm – a massive earthquake and tsunami, multiple vulnerable coastal reactors with spent-fuel ponds in the same buildings, inadequate barriers, loss of power, and back-up generators situated too low – may have seemed a remote possibility. But was it really? Problems had occurred at similar reactors before. Fukushima’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), had a poor safety culture and a long history of falsifying and covering up inspection and safety data.
Jun
28
2011

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) has recently released a report listing the “Dirty Dozen” and the “Clean 15″ of fruits and veggies, giving consumers an idea of which foods have been found to be most contaminated with chemicals. Although EWG clearly states that eating any fruits and veggies is definitely better than eating none, the Group aims to give concerned shoppers some knowledge for the produce isle. Their methods involve poring over studies published by the FDA and USDA, tallying findings and making them more accessible to the often blind-sided consumer.

Food Quantity Quality Pesticide Health Governmentality Risk Benefits Capitalism

  • it has become standard practice to maximize the yield of produce without regard for its quality, as is a well-known fact in the meat industry — this may seem to feed more people, but if one apple now carries the overall benefit of, say, half a healthy specimen (as an arbitrary example), how many apples does one really need to eat? Would it not be better to grow high-quality, nutritiously dense produce with a smaller yield? Even genetically-modified produce which is bred to resist pests poses problems — despite GM produce being in use, pesticide use has not decreased, in fact, it has increased. These products may still be susceptible to other pests, or have problems all their own.
  • Although pesticides are used to get an adequate amount of produce to consumers at ‘reasonable’ prices, and the residual levels on produce are ‘below government limits’, the fact remains that consumers are swallowing synthetic chemicals. After knowing the facts, one can only be the judge for oneself. What it may come down to, is consumers’ desire for a ‘perfect berry‘, fruit, etc. — if we change our opinion of what produce “should” look like to what it truly is in nature (does the human beauty industry ring a bell here?), we may solve some of these problems .
Jun
25
2011

Thousands of older people are being put at increased risk of death or developing dementia by taking combinations of common medicines to treat routine illnesses, according to a new study published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.

Many are available over the counter at pharmacies as well as being prescribed by GPs, nurses and chemists.

British scientists behind the study are calling for doctors to recognise how dangerous these drug combinations can be and to prescribe harmless alternatives instead.

Drugs Medicine Risk Benefits Uncertainty Chance

  • The drugs, including common allergy treatments Piriton and Zantac, as well as Seroxat, an anti-depressant, are thought to be used by half of the 10 million over-65s in Britain. Many of the drugs, when taken in combination, were found to more than treble an elderly patient's chance of dying within two years.

    Common bladder medications, heart drugs, eye drops and asthma treatments were also among those found to pose a risk.

    All the drugs work by blocking a key chemical in the nervous system called acetylcholine.

    The scientists also suggested that in patients showing early signs of mental impairment, high doses could "tip them over" into a more confused state.
Jun
22
2011

Cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins, which have been shown to lower a person’s risk for heart attack, can also slightly increase a patient’s risk for developing diabetes, particularly at higher doses, new research shows.

Body Biology Complex System Drugs Uncertainty Risk

  • The findings, based on new analyses of five clinical trials involving 32,752 patients, raise new questions about how much we really know about the long-term effects of statins, which are the most widely prescribed drugs in the United States. The focus on the link between statins and diabetes comes at a time when some medical experts and pharmaceutical companies have pushed to broaden the use of the drugs beyond the 40 million at-risk patients who already use them to healthy people who would take the drugs for prevention of heart disease.
  • Doctors cautioned that patients should not overreact to the diabetes news, saying that the increased diabetes risk is very small, and that the benefits of statin therapy still far outweigh any side effects.
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Jun
21
2011

The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. The post-crisis period has produced a multi-speed world, as the major advanced economies – with the notable exception of Germany – struggle with low growth and high unemployment, while the main emerging-market economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Russia) have restored growth to pre-crisis levels.

Risk Capitalism Globalization

Jun
18
2011

Firefighters are putting their lives on the line in order to control the blaze.  This is dangerous work.  Why do they choose to take such a job? Sociologist Matthew Desmond asks this question in his book, On the Fireline: Living and Dying with Wildland Firefighters, and the answer is truly surprising.

Desmond, who put himself through college fighting fires in Arizona, returned to his old job as a graduate student in order to study his fellow firefighters.  When he asked them why they were willing to put their lives at risk to fight fires, the firefighters responded, “Risk? What risk?”

It turned out that the firefighters didn’t think that their work was dangerous.  How is this possible?

Fire Nature Risk Masculinity Gender Stereotype

  • most of the firefighters were working-class men from the country who had been working with nature all of their lives.  They raised cattle and rode horses; they cut down trees, chopped firewood, and built fences; they hunted and fished as often as they could.  They were at home in nature.  They felt that they knew nature.  And they had been manipulating nature all their lives.   Desmond wrote:  “…my crewmembers are much more than confident on the fireline.  They are comfortable.”
  • To these men, fire was just another part of nature.  They believed that if you understood the forest, respected fire, and paid attention, then you could keep yourself safe.  Period. Fire wasn’t dangerous.  One of the firefighters put it like this:

     

    Cause, personally, I don’t consider my life in danger.  I think that the people I work with and with the knowledge I know, my life isn’t in danger. . . . If you know, as a firefighter, how to act on a fire, how to approach it, this and that, I mean you’re, yeah, fire can hurt you.  But if you know, if you can soak up the stuff that has been taught to you, it’s not a dangerous job.

     

    When these men were called “heroes,” they laughed.  Desmond wrote: “The thought of dying on the fireline is so distant from firefighters’ imaginations that they find the idea comedic.”

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Jun
13
2011

WASHINGTON -- Zapping salad fixings with just a bit of radiation can kill dangerous E. coli and other bacteria – and food safety experts say Europe's massive outbreak shows wary consumers should give the long-approved step a chance.

The U.S. government has OK'd irradiation for a variety of foods – meat, spices, certain imported fruits, the seeds used to grow sprouts. Even iceberg lettuce or spinach can be irradiated without the leaves going limp. And no, it doesn't make the food radioactive.

But sterilized leafy greens aren't on the market, and overall sales of irradiated foods remain low. A disappointed Grocery Manufacturers Association says one reason is that sellers worry about consumer mistrust.

Nature Fallacy Naturalistic Fallacy Radiation Risk Uncertainty Technology

May
12
2011

a study by Kathy Fogel, Randall Morck, and Bernard Yeung, found statistical evidence that economies with more churn in the corporate sector also had faster economic growth. The relationship even seems causal: churn today is correlated with fast economic growth tomorrow. The real benefit of this creative destruction, say Fogel and her colleagues, is not the appearance of “rising stars” but the disappearance of old, inefficient companies. Failure is not only common and unpredictable, it’s healthy.

Economics Disaster Uncertainty Chance Risk Cosmopolitics

  • a study by Kathy Fogel, Randall Morck, and Bernard Yeung, found statistical evidence that economies with more churn in the corporate sector also had faster economic growth. The relationship even seems causal: churn today is correlated with fast economic growth tomorrow. The real benefit of this creative destruction, say Fogel and her colleagues, is not the appearance of “rising stars” but the disappearance of old, inefficient companies. Failure is not only common and unpredictable, it’s healthy.
  • But in politics, where are the bad ideas that have been tested, found wanting, and replaced with something better? It’s rare – but not unheard of – for politicians to seriously test out their policies, perhaps because they realize that we voters pay more attention to soundbites. And so there’s rarely a really good evidence base to shut down failing policies and replace them with something else.
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Apr
9
2011

BERKELEY -- Despite a lack of convincing evidence that pollution is an important cause of human cancer, this misconception drives government policy today and results in billions of dollars spent to clean up minuscule amounts of synthetic chemicals, say two UC Berkeley researchers.

This is only one of many misconceptions, they say, that serve to divert money from the most important causes of cancer: smoking, poor diet, our own hormones and chronic infections.

Pollution Cancer Policy Science Risk

  • One of the big misconceptions is that artificial chemicals such as pesticides have a lot to do with human cancer, but that's just not true," says Bruce N. Ames, professor of biochemistry and molecular biology at the University of California at Berkeley and co-author of a new review of what is known about environmental pollution and cancer. "Nevertheless, it's conventional wisdom and society spends billions on this each year."

      

    "We consume more carcinogens in one cup of coffee than we get from the pesticide residues on all the fruits and vegetables we eat in a year," he adds.

  • there may be many excellent reasons for cleaning up pollution of our air, water and soil, the researchers say, prevention of cancer is not one of them.
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Apr
8
2011

Germany's moratorium on nuclear power has not necessarily reduced Germany's reliance on nuclear power by as much as one might think

Nuclear Risk Energy

  • From Der Spiegel:
     
    Germany has been importing nuclear power from France and the Czech Republic since it switched off its seven oldest nuclear power stations last month in the wake of the Fukushima accident, power company RWE said on Monday.
     
     A spokesman for RWE confirmed a report in Bild newspaper that Germany had become a net importer of power since March 16. Previously, Germany had been a net electricity exporter because of its rising output of power from renewable energy sources.
     
     RWE said the country's power imports from France and Czech have been amounting up to 3,000 megawatts and up to 2,000 megawatts respectively. Three quarters of France's power supply comes from nuclear energy while the Czech Republic relies on reactors for 34 percent of its energy needs.
     
     Hildegard Müller, head of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries also said on Monday that power imports were up. "Since March 17, there has been an increase in imports. Flows from France and the Czech Republic have doubled," she said.
Apr
3
2011

in a study released on Thursday, the folks at the Ochs Center for Metropolitan Studies in Chattanooga, Tenn., decided to take an in-depth look at the promises made by purveyors of new coal plants.

Their findings seem to suggest that the trade-off that many cash-strapped communities make — specifically, accepting the health and environmental risks that come with having a new coal-burning power plant in their midst, in return for a boost in employment — is not what it’s cracked up to be.

Risk Cost Probability Coal Energy Environment Health

  • The analysis looked at the six largest new coal-fired power plants to come online between 2005 and 2009, including facilities in Pottawattamie County, Iowa; Milam and Robertson Counties, Tex.; Otoe County, Neb.; Berkeley County, S.C.; and Marathon County, Wisc. All were plants exceeding capacity of 500 megawatts.

     

    Researchers combed through each project’s initial proposals and job projection data, including public statements, published documents and other material. They then set about taking the pulse of employment — before, during and after construction — in the areas where the projects were built, relying chiefly on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

     

  • The big idea: Even accounting for other ups and downs in employment activity in these counties, projects of this magnitude should stand out amid the data din, permitting some ground truthing of the coal projects’ actual impact on the local economy.

     

    The results: only a little over half, or 56 percent of every 1,000 jobs projected, appeared to be actually created as a result of the coal plants’ coming online. And in four of the six counties, the projects delivered on just over a quarter of the jobs projected.

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Mar
19
2011

Critics of technology are often dubbed in policy circles as anti-science. Yet critical thinking is central to any rational decision-making process - it is less scientific to support a technology uncritically. Accidents happen with all technologies, and are regrettable but not disastrous so long as the technology does not have catastrophic potential; this raises significant questions about whether we want to adopt technologies that do have such potential.

Science Nuclear Complex System Chance Risk

  • Japan's part-natural, part-human disaster is an extraordinary event. As well as dealing with the consequences of an earthquake and tsunami, rescuers are having to evacuate thousands of people from the danger zone around Fukushima. In addition, the country is blighted by blackouts from the shutting of 10 or more nuclear plants. It is a textbook case of how technology can increase our vulnerability through unintended side-effects.
  • Yet there had been early warnings from scientists. In 2006, Professor Katsuhiko Ishibashi resigned from a Japanese nuclear power advisory panel, saying the policy of building in earthquake zones could lead to catastrophe, and that design standards for proofing them against damage were too lax.

    Further back, the seminal study of accidents in complex technologies was Professor Charles Perrow's Normal Accidents, published in 1984
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Mar
16
2011

The environmental movement has a strange historical relationship with nuclear power. In many countries, opposition to nuclear reactors in the wake of Chernobyl gave rise to major Green political parties. Many environmentalists still oppose nuclear power--Greenpeace, for example, still calls for the phase out of all reactors. But as climate change has taken over the Green agenda, other environmentalists have come to favor nuclear  as part of a low-carbon energy mix.  It was this confluence of factors—fading memories of Chernobyl and increased concern about greenhouse gases--that gave the nuclear industry such confidence just a few years ago. That confidence will have been deeply shaken by events in Japan.

Greenhoues Gases Green Energy Nuclear Risk

As the New York Times reports:

The Japanese disaster has led some energy officials in the United States and in industrialized European nations to think twice about nuclear expansion. And if a huge release of radiation worsens the crisis, even big developing nations might reconsider their ambitious plans. But for now, while acknowledging the need for safety, they say their unmet energy needs give them little choice but to continue investing in nuclear power.

Greenhoues Gases Green Energy Nuclear Risk

  • Some European leaders, including Angela Merkel, may be backtracking fast on their commitment to nuclear power, but despite yesterday's escalation of the ongoing crisis in Fukushima, Japan, there appear to be no signs that India, China and other emerging economies will succumb to a similar backlash.

      

    For the emerging economies, overcoming poverty and insecurity of supply remain the overriding priorities of energy policy.

  • Nearly half a billion of India's 1.2 billion citizens continue to live in energy poverty. According to the Chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, Srikumar Banerjee, "ours is a very power-hungry country. It is essential for us to have further electricity generation."

      

    The Chinese have cited similar concerns in sticking to their major expansion plans of its nuclear energy sector. At its current GDP growth, China's electricity demands rise an average of 12 percent per year.

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