Weiye Loh's Library tagged Probility →  View Popular, Search in Google

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

Judith Curry

Received: 1 April 2011 / Accepted: 14 June 2011 # The Author(s) 2011.
 Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0180-z
 This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

Abstract. This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.

Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide

Seamus Bradley

Abstract. There are different kinds of uncertainty. I outline some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather prediction. I then show how we cope with some of these sources of error through sophisticated modelling techniques. I show how we maintain confidence in the face of error.