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The journal Peace Research has just published a special issue on climate change and conflict. The introductory essay, by Nils Petter Gleditsch, says this:
On the whole, however, it seems fair to say that so far there is not yet much evidence for climate change as an important driver of conflict.
Gleditsch also offers a gentle suggestion to the IPCC:
The IPCC is currently working on its Fifth Assessment Report, scheduled for release in 2013. For the first time, this report will have a chapter on the consequences of climate change for human security, including armed conflict (IPCC, no date). We hope that the studies reported here will contribute to a balanced assessment by the IPCC, built on the best peer-reviewed evidence.
"[On miracles supposedly being existence for a good god] Suppose that the evil-god hypothesis is true. This malignant being may not want us to know of his existence. In fact, it may help him maximize evil if he deceives us about his true character. An evil and omnipotent being will have no difficulty duping human beings into believing he is good. Taking on a ‘good’ guise, he might appear in one corner of the world, revealing himself in religious experiences and performing miracles in response to prayers, and perhaps also giving instructions regarding what his followers should believe. He might then do the same in another part of the globe, with the exception that the instructions he leaves regarding what should be believed contradict what he has said elsewhere. Our evil being could then stand back and watch the inevitable conflict develop between communities to whom he has now misleadingly revealed himself, each utterly convinced by their own stock of miracles and religious experiences that the one true all-good god is on their side. Here we have a recipe for ceaseless conflict, violence and suffering."
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Following on the Problem of Good (past post):
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One may still raise this objection: ‘But surely nothing could be worse than hell as traditionally conceived? Why doesn’t an evil god just send us straight to hell? ’ However, as already noted, a mirror puzzle faces those who believe in a good god. Given that a heavenly environment would be profoundly more joyful than this, why doesn’t a good god send us straight to heaven? Why are so many of us allowed to go through such appalling suffering here?...
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A new conflict-of-interest policy will require all IPCC officials and authors to disclose financial and other interests relevant to their work (Pachauri had been harshly criticized in 2009 for alleged conflicts of interest.) The meeting also adopted a detailed protocol for addressing errors in existing and future IPCC reports, along with guidelines to ensure that descriptions of scientific uncertainties remain consistent across reports. "This is a heartening and encouraging outcome of the review we started one year ago," Pachauri told Nature. "It will strengthen the IPCC and help restore public trust in the climate sciences."
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The first major test of these changes will be towards the end of this year, with the release of a report assessing whether climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events. Despite much speculation, there is scant scientific evidence for such a link — particularly between climate warming, storm frequency and economic losses — and the report is expected to spark renewed controversy. "It'll be interesting to see how the IPCC will handle this hot potato where stakes are high but solid peer-reviewed results are few," says Silke Beck, a policy expert at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany.
it seems that religion does not necessarily trigger national pride. But when religion and nation are aligned, they reinforce each other.
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Conflicts often fracture along religious lines - the Balkans, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland to name just a few of the best known. But it's hard to say that religion is the cause of the problem. There are always other factors, like ethnic differences and disputes over land rights.
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In a recent analysis of survey data from 30 European countries Malina Voicu, a sociologist at the University of Bucharest in Romania, found that people who said they were proud of their country were significantly more likely to also be religious.
This relationship held even after controlling for a bunch of other factors that could explain differences in religiosity - age, sex, education, income, religious denomination, living in a post-communist nation, and living in a poor country. All of these factors were important, but even after taking these into account, nationalistic people were more religious. - 3 more annotation(s)...
One of the news sites in my blogroll is EurActiv.com, which I have come to trust as a reliable source of information about goings on in Brussels and Europe. Yesterday, I relied on a news story from EurActiv related to the IPCC. It turns out that just about everything in that news story was incorrect, and that news story remains posted with incorrect information.
While it is true that bloggers are often at the mercy of conventional news outlets, we can also help to quickly identify errors and help to set them straight.
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Last year the InterAcademy Council recommended that
The IPCC should develop and adopt a rigorous conflict of interest policy that applies to all individuals directly involved in the preparation of IPCC reports
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UPDATE: I AM INFORMED THAT THE MATERIAL REPORTED BY EURACTIV AND REPRODUCED BELOW IS COMPREHENSIVELY WRONG. APPARENTLY MR. SAWYER IS NOT A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE IPCC AND THE REPORT DOES NOT DISCUSS NUCLEAR POWER. I HAVE UPDATED THIS POST ACCORDINGLY. THE EURACTIV NEWS STORY POSTED UP YESTERDAY REMAINS IN ERROR.
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