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If the Lisbon treaty does not come into force in 2009, that will affect the composition of both the European Parliament and the European Commission next year.

Both would have to be conducted under the EU's current set of rules, the Nice treaty, which would mean that there would be 785 instead of 751 seats, as foreseen in the Lisbon treaty, in the parliament.

But it would also reduce the number of commissioners in the next commission - to be nominated by November 2009 - as under Nice, the number should be "less than the number of member states."

Political analysts have underlined that the EU was lucky to have a country as big as France at its helm during the Georgia crisis as this tempered the lack of real EU leadership. 

"The EU was lucky France held the EU Presidency, because Russia agreed to engage with Mr. Sarkozy on the ceasefire. But they may not have engaged with the EU if a smaller country such as the Czech Republic were EU president, especially with its difficult bilateral relationship with Moscow as a result of its decision to host US missile defence," said Antonio Missiroli, the director of the European Policy Centre, quoted in The Irish Times. 

Even the Polish President, who in the recent past called the Lisbon Treaty "pointless" and said he would not sign it (EurActiv 01/07/08), spoke a very different language after the summit. 

Asked by EurActiv if he was now more in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, Kaczynski conceded that indeed, several EU leaders had mentioned informally that the Lisbon Treaty would have given the EU better instruments to deal with challenges such as the current Georgia crisis. He then added that Ireland should hold a second referendum. 

The Finnish autonomous Aland Islands are causing headaches for the Finnish government by demanding certain concessions from Helsinki in return for ratifying the EU's Lisbon Treaty.

The local government in the capital Mariehamn has said it will ratify the bloc's latest institutional rule book only if it gets the nod for four demands, with the vote in the Aland 30-member strong parliament expected in the autumn.

It notes that the 27-nation bloc continues to achieve results and "integrate" using intergovernmental bodies such as the European Defence Agency and through new laws such as those on liberalising the energy market in Europe or the Emissions Trading Scheme.

But the paper suggests that the EU would be "much better off" with the Lisbon Treaty - already ratified by 23 member states - as it would clear up the "dreadful arrangements" for managing EU foreign policy, currently a mishmash of personalities and responsibilities.

President Klaus - by far the most outspoken eurosceptic in Central-Europe - made no secret of his pleasure at the Irish No. While the office of the Czech president is largely honorary, his signature is needed to round up the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty. But Mr Klaus's bark is often worse than his bite. It is very unlikely he will risk being scapegoat of the entire EU by blocking the ratification after a positive vote in parliament.

More significant however is the fact the president still has considerable influence on a large segment of the Civic Democratic Party. After the Irish referendum the harsh language of Mr Klaus was echoed by several party members. CDP holds a majority in the Czech Senate where voting on the Lisbon Treaty still needs to take place.

The Irish government is considering calling a second Lisbon treaty referendum in autumn 2009 after securing concessions on the number of commissioners, abortion, taxation and military neutrality, a major Irish daily reports.

Under the plan, the re-vote in September or October next year would come after the June 2009 European Parliament elections, meaning the total number of MEPs would go down from 785 to 736, instead of 751 as envisaged by Lisbon.

Almost three quarters of Irish voters are opposed to the idea of a second vote on the EU's Lisbon treaty, according to a fresh poll.

The survey, revealed on Sunday (27 July), was commissioned by the London-based eurosceptic think-tank Open Europe, and carried out among 1,000 respondents between 21 and 23 July, shortly after a visit by French president Nicolas Sarkozy in Dublin.

Ratification map

Twenty out of 27 EU states have definitively ratified the EU treaty. Spain, Germany and Poland's parliaments have approved the text but the respective heads of state must still sign off on the document, with the German constitutional court still considering a legal challenge.

The Italian lower house is expected to back the text this week. Swedish MPs are set to pass the treaty without serious opposition when they begin their autumn session in September. And Czech deputies are planning to hold a vote in autumn, after the verdict of the country's constitutional court on a legal appeal.

The Italian senate's unanimous support for the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday (23 July) should help force Ireland into a revote, Italian politicians have said, with Ireland looking increasingly likely to stand out as the only EU country not to ratify the text.

"If ratification takes place in the other 26 states, in the autumn we will be able to ask Ireland to find a solution which will not block the integration process and go to the European elections with the new rules foreseen in the Lisbon treaty," the senate's foreign affairs committee head, Lamberto Dini, indicated.

Twenty one out of 27 EU states have definitively ratified the EU treaty despite the Irish No vote in a referendum in June. The Spanish, German and Polish parliaments have also approved the text, which now awaits the signatures of the respective heads of state.

The Swedish parliament is set to pass the treaty without serious opposition when it begins its autumn session in September. Czech Prime Minister Miroslav Topolanek this week pledged the full support of his divided ODS party when parliament votes in autumn.

Croatia will be ready to join the EU in 2009 and its membership is not going to be delayed by the EU's current institutional "crisis", Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has said.

"I understand European countries, including France, which intend to solve the EU's institutional problems before proceeding to any new accessions … [But] we will speed up the rhythm of our reforms and be ready in 2009 to join the EU as its 28th member," Mr Mesic told French daily Le Figaro in an interview published on Tuesday (15 July).

Goulard also called on Irish politicians to face up to "their responsibilities" by coming up with solutions to the crisis. "We are again witnessing an amalgam where critics say Brussels irritates, that people do not want Europe, when in fact the people responsible for this slip are rather to be found in the national capitals."

"We had a prime minister who said he had not read the treaty, an Irish European commissioner who said the same," she pointed out.

And if Irish voters were being made to believe that the treaty influences Ireland's sovereignty on abortion, defence or tax policy, it is because Irish politicians failed to explain the text properly, which was considered by voters to be too complex.

"These issues were not considered in the treaty," Goulard points out. "We can therefore measure how much the Irish political class failed in its mission to explain [the treaty]."

Mr Kaczynski is fighting to win oversight powers on Polish government behaviour in EU negotiations and to get government approval to host a US missile shield. The Lisbon row also generates momentum for his flagging conservative opposition party, as campaigning slowly begins for the 2009 European Parliament elections.

"If Lech Kaczynski signs the treaty it will be a victory for [Polish liberal Prime Minister Donald] Tusk. So the president wants his own victory by winning concessions from the liberals," Polish Institute of Political Sciences analyst Kazimierz Kik told AFP.

The Polish parliament passed the treaty in April, but Mr Kaczynski must now sign a Ratification Act to finalise the process. The president told Dziennik his general approach to EU diplomacy is to give Poland more clout by protecting national interests at every turn.

"My politics is a way to make sure the telephone number of the Polish president or prime minister is frequently used by Berlin, Paris, London or other capitals," he said.

My own hunch is that they will try to find a way to enforce the Lisbon treaty without the non-ratifiers. As a first step, they will try to offer the No-sayers a quit-and-rejoin deal. It would be the least divisive option of all, but unfortunately, it may also be one of the least realistic. It would obviously require their consent, which is far from assured. In Ireland’s case it may require a referendum to get out and another one to get back in.

If this is not possible, there are several other options involving varying degrees of involuntary separation. For example, everybody would formally remain inside the EU on the basis of the Nice treaty, but the ratifiers would organise their areas of co-operation outside the EU and its institutions – on foreign policy, immigration, economic governance, maybe even on energy and the environment. They could do so using the provisions of Lisbon treaty or any other rules they choose among themselves.