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Mea culpa 

Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev said Bulgaria deserved to be criticised in the Commission's report, the Bulgarian press reported. 

"There are grounds for criticism, to be honest," Stanishev told the press in the Black Sea city of Varna. “The truth is Bulgaria is learning how to work with European money," he added. 

The opposition has attacked the government, including over Bulgaria’s decline compared to Romania. A no-confidence motion is expected to be voted upon in Parliament today, but the coalition government controls 150 out of 240 MPs and is expected to survive. 

More interestingly, a poll showed that a majority of Bulgarians were siding with the Commission and believe that the EU should indeed freeze its subsidies. The perception among ordinary citizens, shows the study by the Alpha Research Institute, is that this money is not reaching them. Thus many Bulgarians welcome funding cuts as a way of hurting the corrupt political class. 

For his part, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn called the moment: "historic for international justice."

It is also "very important for Serbia's European aspirations" and "proves that the new government of Serbia has the determination to turn the page, leave the nationalist past behind and move towards a European future," he added.

Croatia will be ready to join the EU in 2009 and its membership is not going to be delayed by the EU's current institutional "crisis", Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has said.

"I understand European countries, including France, which intend to solve the EU's institutional problems before proceeding to any new accessions … [But] we will speed up the rhythm of our reforms and be ready in 2009 to join the EU as its 28th member," Mr Mesic told French daily Le Figaro in an interview published on Tuesday (15 July).

Kosovo, which seceded from Serbia in February of this year, is one of Europe's most under-developed economies and is highly dependent on foreign subsidies.

From 1999 to 2007, when under the direct administration of the United Nations, Pristina benefitted from over €3.5 billion in reconstruction assistance.

However, the official unemployment rate remains a worrying 43 percent, with youth unemployment estimated even higher, at around 60 percent.

Kosovo's economy grew by 4.4 percent in 2007, with an inflation rate of 13.6 percent as of April, 2008.

The largest chunk of money for Kosovo is to come from the European Commission, followed by an American contribution of some $400 million. Beyond the EU's own funds, member state Germany has pledged €100 million, and the UK has confirmed an aid package worth £23 million.

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My own hunch is that they will try to find a way to enforce the Lisbon treaty without the non-ratifiers. As a first step, they will try to offer the No-sayers a quit-and-rejoin deal. It would be the least divisive option of all, but unfortunately, it may also be one of the least realistic. It would obviously require their consent, which is far from assured. In Ireland’s case it may require a referendum to get out and another one to get back in.

If this is not possible, there are several other options involving varying degrees of involuntary separation. For example, everybody would formally remain inside the EU on the basis of the Nice treaty, but the ratifiers would organise their areas of co-operation outside the EU and its institutions – on foreign policy, immigration, economic governance, maybe even on energy and the environment. They could do so using the provisions of Lisbon treaty or any other rules they choose among themselves.

It also comes in the aftermath of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon treaty in a referendum 10 days ago, which has prompted divisions among EU leaders about the possibilities of continuing with the enlargement process at this stage.

France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, have both declared that EU expansion will have to be halted until the document enters into force, while leaders in other countries – such as Poland – have said the process can continue.

EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday (19 June) will spend little time discussing enlargement of the bloc, and are not expected to do more than reaffirm western Balkan countries' "European perspective" – despite greater expectations from some of the EU hopefuls.

One such country – Macedonia, an EU candidate since 2005 – has lately been indicating its readiness to start accession negotiations as soon as possible.

Macedonia had had high expectations on starting accession negotiations during Ljubljana's time at the EU helm, as Slovenia – which was part of the former Yugoslavia together with Macedonia – has made the Western Balkans' EU integration a priority of its presidency.

Moreover, not winning the announcement of a date now means that Skopje may not start negotiations this year at all, as the next EU presidency country, France, has explicitly taken Greece's side in the name row, and is not expected to put a particular emphasis on enlargement issues.

With the two new policy areas - free movement of workers and social policy and employment - 20 of the 35 "chapters" have been opened with Croatia since the start of negotiations in October 2005. 

Speaking after the conference, Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic and Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel expressed hope that all chapters could be closed by the end of the year. "It's possible. I wish this possibility would become reality," said Rupel, whose country holds the EU Presidency until 30 June. 

The issue of future EU enlargements is proving particularly slippery, as the current and future holders of the EU's rotating presidency expressed contrary views on the subject. The president of the European Parliament then contradicted the EU's enlargement commissioner and the bloc's foreign policy chief in much the same manner. 

While Slovenian Foreign Minister Dmitrij Rupel, on behalf of the outgoing EU Presidency, excluded any changes to the enlargement process following the Irish referendum, French President and upcoming EU Council President Nicolas Sarkozy warned that "for opening to the Balkans, to Croatia, we need the Lisbon Treaty". Sarkozy's comments were made in Prague, where he was trying to convince his eurosceptic hosts that the Czech Republic should not halt its ratification process. Ratification has indeed stalled there pending a ruling from the Constitutional Court. 

As EU foreign ministers try to breathe life back into the Lisbon Treaty, the charter of institutional reforms rejected by Irish voters last week, Dublin is likely to be offered stronger guarantees in the sensitive areas of taxation, defence and family policies.

According to the Financial Times, "explanatory protocols" should explicitly state that the document does not affect Ireland's ability to set its own tax rates, the country's neutrality status or its abortion policy.

Another solution being floated involves a legal assurance that Ireland will never lose its seat at the European Commission table, the Irish Times reports. The Lisbon Treaty enables EU leaders to put the reduction of the size of the commission on ice.

Either scenario is expected to be agreed at the first top-level meeting of EU leaders under the French EU presidency in October.

Irish No will not put brakes on EU enlargement

Aside from the size of the next European Commission - now capped by the current EU rules - a question mark hangs over the 27-nation bloc's capacity to absorb new members.

The Nice Treaty is tailored to no more than 27 member states.

When asked about the prospects of EU hopefuls' accession to the EU, Mr Rupel excluded any changes to the process.

"The outcome of the Irish referendum in no way changes enlargement policy...The EU unanimously decided to invited the countries of the Western Balkans to take membership so there is no doubt about that," the minister said, but added: "How we will carry that out that is another question."

The German and Polish leaders said Monday that European Union countries should press ahead with ratifying the reform treaty rejected by Irish voters, but vowed not to isolate Ireland as they seek a way out of the crisis.

The charter, meant to replace the failed EU constitution, was rejected in an

Abstract

[From the introduction] The foregoing summary of current events indicates the complexity of the situation the

EU is dealing with on the Balkans. Currently, it seems that, apart from Croatia and

partly Montenegro and Macedonia, the countries are still far away from any

meaningful prospects regarding European integration. A detailed overview of all of

the intricacies and activities of the European Union’s foreign policy in the Western

Balkans is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, the following discussion addresses

the main institutional and legal issues with regard to the process of integration for the

countries of the Western Balkans. This process, the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP), is a precondition to enlargement procedures. In the light of the current events, the final part addresses the particularities of the role foreseen for the EU in

Kosovo.

While Kosovo is not on the foreign ministers' agenda, it is unlikely that they will be able to avoid the topic, after the fledgling state's constitution entered into force on Sunday. 

The EU is also poised to take over policing and justice tasks from the United Nations after the UN's Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon last week put forward proposals to "reconfigure" the activities of the UN Mission UNMIK to allow the EU to deploy its contested EU-Lex police mission there (EurActiv 29/05/08). 

"It is my intention to reconfigure the structure and profile of the international civil presence [...] enabling the European Union to assume an enhanced operational role," said the secretary general in letters to Kosovo and Serbian leaders. 

But the handover, which is foreseen in Kosovo's constitution, remains strongly opposed by both Serbia and Russia, who insist that the EU mission is illegal because it has not been approved by the UN Security Council. 

One of the biggest losers in the wake of the Irish referendum will be the EU's enlargement plans, insofar as they have existed. Pierre Moscovici, one of the leaders of the French opposition Socialist Party and a former Europe Minister, made that point in Paris on June 9.

"I think that globally, an Irish 'no' would mean that the European Union would no longer be in a position to pursue further its policy of enlargement," Moscovici said. "For institutional reasons in the first place, because the Treaty of Nice -- I know this, because I was one its negotiators -- is designed for up to 28 [member states]. After that, we'll be in 'no man's land.'"

Of the current candidates, only Croatia would be guaranteed entry under existing rules.

Bosnia was the last Balkan country to launch visa talks which will allow Bosnian citizens to travel unhampered within EU countries. 

The Commission will outline a roadmap towards full visa liberalisation in the coming weeks, said Commission Vice President Jacques Barrot, who remains in charge of transport until the new Italian Commissioner Antonio Tajani takes over next month when approved by Parliament, after his meeting with the Bosnian Prime Minister Nikola Spiric.