General contractors anxious about future 10/7/2008
"Contractors and building officials said they are busy now, but are unsure as they look into the second half of 2009 and beyond."
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ABC News : Consumers fall further behind financially, study reports 7/28/2008
Americans' household finances are bad and getting worse, and that spells trouble for the economy for the rest of the decade, according to a study by Moody's economy.com.Consumers are behind schedule in payments or have walked away from nearly $800 billion in household debt of all kinds — mortgages, credit cards, car loans, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for economy.com. "Household credit quality has arguably never been worse," he says. Zandi is one of the nation's chief analysts of regional economic trends. And Moody's has a long history of credit analysis for municipalities and corporations. Higher default rates are likely, Zandi says, because: •The housing downturn. Projected declines in house prices, home sales and housing starts are all worse than the housing collapses of the 1980s and 1990s, Zandi says. He projects a nationwide home price decline of 26% from the peak in 2006.As prices decline, fewer homeowners can borrow against their home equity. More borrowers also owe more...
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Feature Article July/August 2008: Ding Dong, The Dream Is Dead
"Today suburban neighborhoods are emptying out. The sub-prime mortgage crisis was only the straw that finally broke the camel's back. Residential developments that were built on an assumption of cheap personal transportation are doomed."
Tags: work, trends, suburbia, urbanization on 2008-07-09 -All Annotations (0) -About
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We believe there will be a resurrection of central cities - if they're willing to make major investments in infrastructure
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Coastal metropolises will thrive. Midwestern second-tier cities are in deep trouble.
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Survivor cities will attract two groups: young singles and older empty nesters. Areas with good colleges or universities will be in special demand.
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The bad news: the suburbs. Empty, empty, empty. People can no longer live there and work somewhere else.
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we still believe there will be tremendous growth in what are called "exurban" areas.
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The limits to development are energy (at an affordable cost); water (watch this one carefully), and environmental quality.
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Our picture of the future includes vibrant city centers, empty and decaying fringes, open areas, and then a network of thriving rural "islands."
Why Traditional Books Will Eventually Die - Michael Hyatt
Tags: books, trends, future on 2008-07-07 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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InfoMatters :: The depressed librarians
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The Future is bleak:
93% believe the next 10 years look less promising than before for the profession of librarian.
70% believe their libraries’ commitment to intellectual freedom is diminishing even when 81% believe the need for public libraries to protect intellectual freedom is increasing.
55% believe more fee-based services are in their future, 44% believe the library’s place in the market is eroding. -
87% believe the library trustees fail to raise the visibility of the library in the community, and have no political clout, even as 71.4% of respondents believe their library board is becoming older and more political! 57% feel there is no common understanding between staff and boards on the library’s direction anyhow.
Compass June 2008: What is a Micropolis? Why Should You Care?
"The key business challenge in the first decades of the 21st century is ready access to this kind of intellectual capital. There simply isn't enough human talent - especially knowledge workers - to meet the needs of growing business enterprises."
Tags: micropolis, trends, demographics, work on 2008-05-27 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Lets break this idea down a bit. Micropolises are newly-minted geographic areas of distinction that are becoming centers of political power, economic innovation, and talent location. People who live in Micropolitan areas (and those attracted to them) have no interest in commuting into large cities. So, if you as a business depend on talent to be competitive, you had better figure out where these areas are and go there - or at least learn to operate virtually drawing on the talent that's located there.
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these self-contained "micropolises" (as compared to metropolises, which were the magnet for talent during the industrial era) are the new frontier. To borrow an old phrase, business leaders understand that, when attracting human capital today, "Mohammed must now go to the mountain."
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The key business challenge in the first decades of the 21st century is ready access to this kind of intellectual capital. There simply isn't enough human talent - especially knowledge workers - to meet the needs of growing business enterprises.
Book Review: The Dumbest Generation 5/13/2008
"To Mark Bauerlein, a professor of English at Emory University, the present is a good time to be young only if you don't mind a tendency toward empty-headedness. In "The Dumbest Generation," he argues that cultural and technological forces, far from opening up an exciting new world of learning and thinking, have conspired to create a level of public ignorance so high as to threaten our democracy."
Tags: technology, trends, culture, ignorance, youth on 2008-05-14 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Adults are so busy imagining the ways that technology can improve classroom learning or improve the public debate that they've blinded themselves to the collective dumbing down that is actually taking place. The kids are using their technological advantage to immerse themselves in a trivial, solipsistic, distracting online world at the expense of more enriching activities – like opening a book or writing complete sentences.
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Mr. Bauerlein presents a wealth of data to show that young people, with the aid of digital media, are intensely focusing on themselves, their peers and the present moment.
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"The verbal values of adulthood and adolescence clash, and to enter adult conditions, individuals must leave the verbal mores of high school behind. The screen blocks the ascent."
What frustrates Mr. Bauerlein is not these deficits themselves – it's the way a blind celebration of youth, and an ill-informed optimism about technology, have led the public to ignore them.
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Mr. Bauerlein contrasts such "evidence-lite enthusiasm" for digital technologies with a weightier learning tradition. He eulogizes New York's City College in the mid-20th century, a book-centered, debate-fostering place where a generation of intellectuals rejected the "sovereignty of youth" in favor of the concerted study of canonical texts and big ideas.
Net Fair - Keeping Up with Technology: Top Trends « ellie <3 libraries
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Trend #1 = Downloadable or streaming media - ebooks, videos, podcasts, lectures
We’re looking at a September 2007-August 2008 time frame when talking about these trends. There may be some overlap between them, but we’re getting an overview. Broad brush strokes are important.
They provide streaming audio for CE credits at his medical library. The Denver Public Library uses podcasts for storytelling. He polled the audience for how many used this trend and got just a few hands.
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Trend #7 = MARC’s Death Knell
Embrace XML or such. LOC working group on the future of bibliographic control. A heated topic. People rethinking the longterm value of other data formats in the context of library information and data. Will be a long and controversial battle.
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Trend #8 = Risk Tolerance
It’s OK to try things and even fail. Libraries are fairly traditional places that make sure they have every i dotted and t crossed before they introduce things. But we’re seeing from some successful commercial tools the idea of perpetual beta. We need to challenge the status quo, to be willing to take some risks and try some things in the library world.
The Tragic End of Children's Literature -- An Obituary and Lament
Tags: books, children, literature, trends on 2008-03-24 -All Annotations (0) -About
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A Garden Carried in the Pocket: On Children's Literature and a disturbing trend
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The Claremont Institute - Let Sleeping Beauties Lie
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As the editors declare in the preface, "In our choice of texts and in our introductions, we have paid close attention to...perceptions of race, class, and gender, among other topics, in shaping children's literature and childhood itself." Practically every text and every author (save for the "emergent") is subjected to a wicked scolding from the editors for its racism, sexism, and elitism. Forget about ogres, witches, monsters, and evil stepmoms; today's villains are gender stereotypes, white males, the middle class, and the traditional family. Retrograde literature must therefore be replaced by a new one, one that is, as it were, beyond good and evil: "In our postmodern age, in which absolute judgments of 'good' and 'evil' are no longer easily made, the distinction between heroes and villains is often blurred."
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There have been three revolutions in modern children's literature.
The first was instigated by John Locke. In founding a new political and intellectual order—a liberal, tolerant regime—he believed that reforming children's education was of the utmost importance. Notably, he advised against reading Scripture to children, because, as he wrote in Some Thoughts Concerning Education, the Bible was ill-suited to a "Child's capacity" and "very inconvenient for Children." Locke's aim was to take education from the hands of the clerisy, and to overcome its domineering and persecutory spirit.
Contrast Locke's sensibility with that of a contemporaneous textbook. The God-fearing New England Primer (c. 1690), included by the Norton editors, drilled children in their ABCs thus:A: In Adam's Fall
We sinned all
B: Heaven to find
The Bible Mind
C: Christ crucify'd
For sinners dy'd -
This was an education not simply in reading and writing, but in living and dying, one that did not condescend to the limited understandings of children. Locke rejected all this, mischievously suggesting that children learn their letters by playing dice. In the wake of Locke's reformation, a more humanistic educational literature gradually blossomed. Unlike the somber New England Primer, the stories were secular, rational, and geared towards children. Though entertaining, these stories were meant to impart a moral message, to help children grow into responsible adults. In this sense at least, Locke still had something in common with the authors of the old New England Primer.
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In the late 19th century, another revolution took place, this time marked by a wholesale shift away from moralizing. A new genre of children's fantasy emerged, seeking only to entertain. One of its most prominent voices was Lewis Carroll. As the editors explain, his "mockery of instructional verse, rote learning, and moralizing school curricula helped move the genre from eighteenth-century concerns with the instruction and correction of children toward modern celebrations of play." This era is known as the "golden age" of children's literature—golden precisely because it celebrated the innocence and playfulness of childhood, and sought to free children from the grief and worry of adults. Carroll's Crocodile, a parody, "seemed to license childhood playfulness, fantasy, laughter, and even idleness." "The change was welcome," add the editors.
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Alas, golden ages never last, and children's literature was no exception. The third and last great change occurred in the 1970s, when writers started to "push the boundaries" of material considered acceptable for children. According to the Norton editors, "In the wake of this revolution, writers for the young can deal with sex, violence, disease, and death—in particular because many believe that the innocence of childhood has been destroyed by the media and the commodification of childhood."
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Locke thought that the "tender" minds of children should be protected from the corruptions of the adult world—and yet these are now the genre's warp and woof. "Children's literature has also begun to resemble adult literature in subject matter," write the editors, "using frank and provocative language to depict and discuss social problems such as homelessness, drug addiction, abuse, and terrorism and expanding the notion of family to include nontraditional families led by single parents, stepparents, and gay and lesbian parents."
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Thus the postmodern adult world, in all its vulgar glory, is visited upon our children. The editors enthusiastically endorse Jonathan Miller's 1984 picture book The Facts of Life, which includes a "pop-up penis." Apparently, alternative families provide especially good material for young readers today. After touting the groundbreaking work Heather Has Two Mommies, and chiding Focus on the Family and the Heritage Foundation for seeing it as a threat to "what they call traditional American values," the editors assure us that "there are today no real taboos in domestic fiction for young adults, and few in books for the youngest readers. Family stories now tackle every painful issue imaginable."
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In a strange way, completely unappreciated by the anthology's editors, we have returned to the pre-Lockean age of children's literature. Locke wished to scrub stories clean of horrific images and premonitions of death—not because he was a naïf or a utopian, but because he believed it possible to build a more rational, humane world. The Norton editors break with him on this central issue. They do not believe in the possibility of a more rational world, or even, it would seem, in childhood itself. And so they have more in common with the New England Primer than they dare to admit. They, too, are obsessed with death and the apocalypse, only they don't believe in redemption.
A School That's Too High on Gizmos - washingtonpost.com
Tags: education, technology, trends on 2008-02-12 and saved by6 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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For a while, I thought it was just older teachers like me -- immigrants to the Internet world -- who were chafing at the so-called technology initiative, but it turns out that even the youngest teachers are fed up. "They would rather have a cyborg teaching than me," one young English teacher complained to me. "It's technology for the sake of technology -- not what works or helps kids learn, but what makes administrators look good, what the public will think is cutting edge."
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Kids certainly aren't fooled by all the gizmos. "The most effective teacher I have is Mr. Nickley," said senior Jamal Stone. "He isn't into all this computer stuff. All he uses is the board -- the whole board. He's lively, energetic, witty and really knows his math. He forces you to pay attention; you can't drift off even if you want to."
Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture | Your Home for Traditional Conservatism » The Failure of “Family Policy”
Tags: divorce, family, marriage, r, trends on 2008-01-24 -All Annotations (0) -About
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no evidence has ever demonstrated that large numbers of fathers were or are deserting their families and not paying child support. Unchallenged research has long established that fathers are forcibly separated from their children by divorce courts and criminalized by child-support orders that are patently impossible to pay. The “deadbeat dad” is largely the creation of bureaucratic policies and of the feminist ideology that drives them.
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Over the years, child support has increasingly functioned less as a way to reduce or recover welfare costs and more as a forced subsidy on middle-class divorce. States are paid by federal taxpayers based on the amount they collect. This encourages them to neglect welfare families, for whom the program was designed, because there is little money to be had. Instead, enforcement agencies have shifted their focus to middle-class families, for whom the program was never intended, because they can collect large sums and, with them, lucrative federal funds, which can then be spent for any purpose. Using child support, state governments found they could raise revenue through the growth of single-parent homes.
The perversity of the incentives is diabolical. States have a financial incentive to generate fatherless children in the middle class, which they procure by providing sweeteners for single motherhood—expedited divorce, automatic and exclusive mother custody (regardless of fault), minimal visitation by fathers—turning as many men as possible into payers (including some who are not even fathers) and setting child-support awards as high as possible. It is hardly surprising that the vast majority of divorces in which children are involved are now filed by women.
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Stephen Baskerville, an assistant professor of government at Patrick Henry College, is the author of Taken Into Custody: The War Against Fathers, Marriage, and the Family (Cumberland House).
Is Matriarchy the Shape of the Future?
Tags: education, future, trends on 2008-01-18 -All Annotations (0) -About
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A generation from now, the female lawyer with her male assistant will be the cliché. Look for women to outnumber men in many elite professions, and potentially in the political system that the professions feed. (The election of a female president is a question of when, not whether.)
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Women's superior education will increase their earning power relative to men's, and on average they will be marrying down, educationally speaking. A third of today's college-bound 12-year-old girls can expect to "settle" for a mate without a university diploma. But women will not stop wanting to be hands-on moms.
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For families, this will pose a dilemma. Women will have a comparative advantage at both parenting and breadwinning. Many women will want to take time off for child-rearing, but the cost of keeping a college-educated mom at home while a high-school-educated dad works will be high, often prohibitive.
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In other words, today's young people already live in a world where, among their peers, women are better educated than men. As the grandparents die off, every year the country's college-educated population will become more feminized. In a couple of decades, America's educational elite will be as disproportionately female as it once was male.
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Christians committed to a biblical model of marriage and gender relations must look to this social revolution with a deeper level of concern. The most significant concern must be the long-term consequences of a new matriarchal world order. While Christians support the cause of higher education, the biblical worldview puts a higher priority upon the rightly ordered family and church. This dramatic social change will only serve to subvert that purpose.
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What about our own sons? Are they being encouraged toward education and leadership in the home, the church, and the culture? If not, we will surely reap what we sow. If you talk to the young women on college campuses, you will find that many are asking the same question. Where are the young men?
Parenting and IT's Future
Tags: education, future, parents, trends, work on 2007-12-24 -All Annotations (0) -About
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he top concern among CIOs is attracting,
developing and retaining business-technology professionals,
according to the 2007 membership survey by the Society for Information
Management.ADVERTISEMENT<!--storyboxend7-->Don't be surprised if finding and keeping IT pros remains atop the
SIM list for a long time. The pool of potential IT pros won't grow if we
depend on our schools to produce the next generation of business technologists.
We have a literacy problem in the United States, especially in
math and sciences, and that doesn't bode well for the IT profession. The
U.S. ranks 24th out of 29 in math literacy among industrialized nations.
We're as math literate as Latvia. "Literacy is the price of admission for
competitiveness," -
Sam
loves math, and scored a 5—the top grade—in a calculus AP exam. He excels
in courses that require analytical thinking. But Sam's deeper passion is
composing classical music, and that's what he wants to study in college.<!-- Vignette V6 Wed Dec 19 13:11:48 2007 -->
<!--WEB 6-->
<!-- Begin T4463 -->
<!-- End T4463 -->
<!-- RELATED LINKS -->While many parents steer their kids toward college programs that
promise relatively steady and lucrative careers, including those in IT management
and computer sciences, my wife—a longtime IT professional—
and I have been Sam's biggest champions in his pursuit of his passion,
though we know that few people earn a good living composing classical
music. The median annual salary of a classical music composer is $36,571,
according to Pay.com. Sure, Sam realizes to make a decent salary he'll need
to earn a doctorate and get a college professorship, yet there's no guarantee
he can land a job in academia because of stiff competition. -
The blog received scores of responses, split on whether Sam, my wife
and I are following the right course. But, for the most part, the grander
question, our responsibility to society, went unanswered. As parents,
what are our responsibilities to our country by encouraging our children
to enter professions that will strengthen our competitiveness in
the world. Is asking Sam to sacrifice his personal dreams for the greater
good of society appropriate?
Dave's cool list - NeverEndingSearch
Tags: current-awareness, future, information-overload, trends on 2007-12-21 -All Annotations (0) -About
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10. Connectivism:
Dave notes, "Connecting is the only way we can succeed in the world of edtech. This year's theme for the top 10 list is connecting and the forces of bad that are trying to stop us from sharing."
Yes, Dave, those of us who CONNECTED, especially this year, recognize how dramatically our learning has expanded, how our professional networks have grown. But as I travel and talk to other educators I recognize how many of us--teachers and learners--cannot yet connect from our schools. I recognize how many do not yet see the potential. -
This year, for me, was the year that everyone began to discover a proliferation of Creative Commons and copyright friendly materials as options to help my students avoid those legal implications. This was also the year those free Web-based apps and open source alternatives gained true mainstream popularity.
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Ustream
If you haven't yet tried this new production and sharing tool, it's absolutely time to explore. Ustream is:platform that provides live interactive video for everyone. Anyone with a camera and an Internet connection can use Ustream to broadcast to a global audience.
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4. CHEAPO computers in 3rd world--Computer wars
Dave points to OLPC’s (One Laptop Per Child) windmill tilting, noting that it forced everyone else in the computer industry to drive down their own entry level offerings toward the $200 mark. He calls this effort a nice corporate bidding game shielded under the guise of third world revitalization, but he recognizes the potential of this effort to connect huge numbers of the formerly unconnected. -
3. Choice
Dave notes: I can’t be everywhere. Every educator is having to decide where they will stake ground. To twitter or not to twitter.
This is the story that resonates loudest with me. Some folks in this 2.0 universe truly seem to be able to be everywhere. I can no longer make every interesting Webcast. I can't Twitter everyday. I read fewer blogs than I once did. I give in. I can't keep keeping up. I am learning to accept that keeping up enough may be enough. I am also learning that when I log off at 9 PM, my world of tech awareness does not collapse. -
2. Twitter
Dave says,Twitter has brought new meaning to "connected." I now know when people are getting out of bed, what they put in their coffee, and how good the cleaning staff is at their schools.
This one would definitely be on the top of my own top ten list. This microblogging strategy has changed how I operate. Sure my Twitter network provides a lot of meaningless (but sometimes entertaining) tweets. It also feeds me with new applications to introduce at school, issues to think and blog about, the webcasts and podcasts I need to see and hear.
Top 20 SMB Technologies and Purchasing Trends
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MBs are heavily invested in key technologies that were once previously reserved for enterprises or have plans to invest in new, advanced technologies.
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The following are the top technologies that SMBs have either deployed or plan to purchase in the next 12 months
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Desktop PCs 98% -
Laptops/Notebooks 93% -
Productivity Software Suites
90% -
Firewalls
79% -
Single-function Laser Printers 76% -
The survey found several technologies previously reserved for the enterprise are gaining traction in the SMB market. These technologies include:
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Custom Software 31% -
Web Services and applications 28% -
CRM/Sales Force Automation
23% -
Software as a service (SaaS) 20% -
IP Telephony
19% -
Open Source/Linux Applications 18% -
they are also challenged by management and maintenance costs, scalability and integration issues.
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Pervasive among the more than 700 survey participants is the need for value; most are willing to pay for the technologies they need so long as they can justify and contain the total cost of ownership.
Cool Cat Teacher Blog: Live Blogging (and Live streaming) Cooperative Learning Workshop
Tags: education, future, q, trends on 2007-10-11 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Toefler, Third Wave 1990
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The Third Wave
Future Shock said the problem of the 21st century is that people will have two many choices -- "Overchoice" -- with so much overchoice they will start being stressed outthat we don't know what will happen to their learning modalities.
A teacher said "The internet stresses me out -- I type something in and get 1,493,000 choices."
And so, our job is to teach students how to make choices in dealing with this world so that they won't be stressed out. Our importance is to teach choices. Schools in the agrarian age -- what did they do in school -- every school in America read the same history book, same math book, and the same Bible. -
Families could move away -- nuclear families b/c people move away from their families. The break down of the family -- we can now live any where in the world.
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o the Industrial Revolution -- standardization was the key
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Then we started having top down bureaucracies (and we still do-- aurgh!) Assembly lines. routine tasks.
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To create students who could do rote routine tasks -- sit still, listen, memorize, and I'll tell you what to do -- read, write, speak,and listen. The problem with this today is that our world has shifted from industrial age to the information age in every industry except education.
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Break down of the family -- children now not living with any parents. 2 working parents -- we move around the world with computers now. We're seeing a whole new corporate structure of collaborative teamwork -- not top down -- eliminating middle management.
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"I've probably learned more in the last 3 years than in the last 30 -- it is mind boggling," says Dr.Sheperd.
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List of information of what the world was like in 1907. 100 years a go between agrarian age and moving into the industrial revolution.
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Rules in cooperative learning
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WE have to agree on the topics we choose. Don't do majority vote -- come to a consensus.
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he beauty of wikis and Google docs
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everyone contributions to the final product
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Grade A student who gets a zero on group work b/c they did everything -- they will begin to listen and to respect each other. We cannot have bulldozers in our classrooms and in group projects.
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http://del.icio.us/maryfriend/
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Cooperative Learning is a cornerstone of the flat classroom project. It is vital.
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