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Google Trends For Websites

Tags: trend, alexa on 2008-06-21 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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Demographic projections and trade implications

Tags: demographics, trend on 2008-05-22 -All Annotations (0) -About

more frompiaohaoreport.sampasite.com

To summarize the raw numbers, China’s population is expected to grow from 1.32 billion today to 1.46 billion in 2030, after which it will decline slowly, to around 1.42 billion in 2050. Its working population is currently around 840 million. This component of the population will rise in the next ten years to around 910 million and then will decline quite rapidly to around 790 million by 2050.
The graph below shows the composition of China’s population by age group. Needless to say the most dramatic change is the explosive growth of the over-65 population, followed by the decline in the share of the young. Another way of understanding this is to note that China’s median age basically climbs over this period from 24 to 45 (which, by the way, may have favorable consequence for long-term political stability).
I don’t have the figures yet from before 1990, but looking at other sources I would guess that China’s working population grew by about 2% or more annually during the 1970s and 1980s. In the 1990s, as the table indicates, the growth rate of the working population slowed to 1.72%, declining further in the current decade to around 1.42% on average. The number of working Chinese keeps growing until around the middle of the next decade, and then begins to decline by about half a percent a year.
All this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades. For one thing, a country’s GDP growth rate can be expressed as a factor of the growth rate of its working population and the growth rate of average productivity per worker. As the growth rate of the working population swings from positive to negative – by a little more than 2%, depending on what periods you compare – this will have a commensurate impact on Chinese GDP growth rates, i.e. all other things being equal (which of course they are not). China’s equilibrium growth rate should be about 2% lower than the equilibrium growth rate of the past two or three decades.
This implies that over the last three decades China has had a demographic bias towards trade surpluses (working population, a proxy for production, grew faster than total population, a proxy for consumption), but over the next three decades it is likely to have a demographic bias towards trade deficits.
Three years ago I argued in a Wall Street Journal OpEd piece that because of the aging and declining populations of Europe and Japan (and to a lesser extent China and Russia), compared to the growing population and relatively stable age distribution in the US, it was not unreasonable for the former countries to run large current account surpluses with the US since they would need the accumulated claims against the US to pay for the current account deficits they would need to run to manage their demographic adjustments. This is why I have never been terribly worried about the sustainability of the US trade deficit. In the next decade it is likely that demographic changes will create pressures to reverse those US trade deficits.

Internet Trends031808meeker » SlideShare

Tags: trend, internet on 2008-04-29 and saved by9 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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Google Press Center: Zeitgeist

Tags: google, trend on 2008-04-05 and saved by15 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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微软CEO鲍尔默称IT产业将迎来第五次革命 - 家庭组网专区 | IT168

Tags: trend on 2008-03-06 -All Annotations (0) -About

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YouTube - ShiftHappens

Tags: trend, video on 2008-02-13 and saved by3 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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Rough Type: Nicholas Carr's Blog: Google, Apple and the future of personal computing

Tags: apple, cloud-book, cloud-computing, computing, google, network-computer, nicholas-carr, trend on 2007-12-19 and saved by4 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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Here's how the partnership works. Apple is taking responsibility for "the user interface and people." It's designing the devices themselves, which will be typically elegant machines that run versions of OS X. While Apple puts together the front end of the integrated network-computing system, Google provides "the perfect back end" - the supercomputer that provides the bulk of the data-processing might and storage capacity for the devices. While the devices will come with big flash drives to ensure seamless computing despite the vagaries of network traffic, all data will be automatically backed up into Google's data centers, and those centers will also serve up most of the applications that the devices run.
Let's look at a few of the advantages that a Google-Apple Cloud Computer offers:
1. It will be cheap. The introductory machine, a small, general-purpose Apple-branded computer, will go on sale for $199 and in short order the price will fall to $99.
2. It will be highly energy-efficient
3. It will be low-maintenance.
4. It will be flexible. Because your data and applications are stored centrally, you will automatically have full access to them whenever you buy a new Google-Apple device
What's at stake is control over personal computing itself - and Microsoft knows that, confronting the combined front-end and back-end skills of Google and Apple, it's at a big disadvantage. It will likely lose this war.
I think there will be three sources of apps: (1) the basics that you mention, which will be supplied and served up by Google-Apple; various consumer apps, including games and web 2.0 stuff, that will be served up over the net as they are today (ad-supported or for fee); and specialized, pro apps that will be designed by developers to run on the Google-Apple platform (incorporating app-cacheing techniques to ensure the necessary speed and responsiveness) and that you'll either license for a fee, as you do today, or subscribe to for a monthly fee (with consolidated billing from Google-Apple).

Nick
So.. analogously, what happens when you can fit the computing and storage capacity of a Google data center into an iPhone? You know it will happen someday. The cloud seems like a way to fake it until this happens.

Posted by: Charles
If they start to mass-produce those $100 laptops for every child on the planet, a lot of them will still find their way back into the hands of people who live in the economically developed countries.
the centrally controlled system will be able to make use of local computing power and storage capacity to optimize the user experience (without shifting maintenance and other crap onto the user). It's all one system.

Nick
Yes, I'm talking about personal computing, and the Google-Apple Cloud Computer will certainly be designed and marketed as a consumer product. But there's no reason that it couldn't expand into certain segments of the business market fairly quickly - and into other segments more slowly. If it can accommodate a virtual desktop - and I'm sure it could - then it would fit nicely with the trend I describe here.

Posted by: Nick Carr at October 17, 2007 04:55 PM
"It will be cheap."

When's the last time Apple shipped anything cheap (in the low price sense of the word)? Its entire line is overpriced and a modest iPod Nano is $149-199. Even if the purchase price is subsidized by advertising or a monthly fee -- and don't forget that iPods and iPhones are subsidized by iTunes and phone bills -- a $99 price point is hard to believe.
"It will be flexible."

How flexible or universal will it be if Apple stays true to form: the software and content only run on Apple devices; Apple limits or prevents third-party application development while selling many apps itself; and there are platform lock-in problems?
two of the sexiest companies in the world gain a lot of attention by working together, but it doesn't mean the collaboration will necessarily go well.

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The DaVinci Institute - The Future of Libraries

Tags: trend on 2007-11-13 and saved by7 people -All Annotations (1) -About

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中國評論新聞：摩根大通：中國和印度必須加大農業投資

Tags: china, trend on 2007-10-31 -All Annotations (0) -About

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The MySpace Generation

Tags: sn, trend on 2006-03-02 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About

more fromwww.businessweek.com

As MySpace has exploded, Anderson has struggled to maintain the intimate atmosphere that lends social networks their authenticity. When new users join, Tom becomes their first friend and invites them to send him a message. When they do, they hear right back, from him or from the one-quarter of MySpace's 165 staffers who handle customer service.
You have just entered the world of what you might call Generation @. Being online, being a Buzzer, is a way of life for Adams and 3,000-odd Dallas-area youth, just as it is for millions of young Americans across the country. And increasingly, social networks are their medium. As the first cohort to grow up fully wired and technologically fluent, today's teens and twentysomethings are flocking to Web sites like Buzz-Oven as a way to establish their social identities.
Preeminent among these virtual hangouts is MySpace.com, whose membership has nearly quadrupled since January alone, to 40 million members. Youngsters log on so obsessively that MySpace ranked No. 15 on the entire U.S. Internet in terms of page hits in October, according to Nielsen//NetRatings. Millions also hang out at other up-and-coming networks such as Facebook.com, which connects college students, and Xanga.com, an agglomeration of shared blogs. A second tier of some 300 smaller sites, such as Buzz-Oven, Classface.com, and Photobucket.com, operate under -- and often inside or next to -- the larger ones.

meeker_internet_trends100605.pdf (application/pdf Object)

Tags: internet, meeker, trend on 2006-03-02 and saved by3 people -All Annotations (0) -About

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