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4. The future is going to be like the present, only with extra layers.

Let's face it, history doesn't get simpler with time (unless you live in very interesting times indeed, such as those of the First Emperor). Current events take place against a backdrop of old assumptions and grievances, and add their own framing context to tomorrow's events. A story set in Egypt in 2031 is going to inevitably reflect the echoes of the overthrow of Mubarak, and also of today's elections (and the military counter-revolution in train), not to mention tomorrow's subsequent events, which will take place within the frame created by the Arab Spring.

5. People evaluate the new using the cognitive toolkit they acquired in the past.

We train our children. In particular, we (or our neighbours, or our schools) train our children early to aspire to a consensus vision of the Good Life. This is based on the assumption that what was achievable in the past is achievable and desirable in the future: grow up, do well at school, get a degree, get a job, get married, buy a house, have children, work, enjoy a long retirement and decline, hand the torch of heredity on to the next generation. This isn't necessarily a bad vision (it worked for the ancestors) but it's an example of a backward-looking one. Break it down into its component sub-stages and they reflect what was necessary to achieve a comfortable/successful life a generation ago.