Todd Suomela's Library tagged probability →  View Popular, Search in Google

We present a foundation for inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying finite lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither complementarity nor continuity or differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of rules governing quantification of the lattice. These rules form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence and information. Taken together these results form a simple and clear foundation for the quantification of inference.

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"One of the presentations was by Ole Peters, from the Department of Mathematics at the Imperial College of London. His presentation compared time series analysis with ensemble analysis. Time series analysis takes one realization of a process and runs it over a very long time period and then looks at the distribution over the course of that run, whereas ensemble analysis creates many copies of the process and runs these over a shorter period, and then looks at the distribution of those results. Time series analysis is what you see over many years in one universe, ensemble analysis is what you see when you take many universes and integrate across them to look at the distributional properties.
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Sunday is the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As a commemoration of the day, I'm going to investigate answers to a very simple question: what is the probability of a 9/11-size or larger terrorist attack?

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"Using data from the particularly clear-cut case of lotto gambling, this study shows that laypeople tend to draw strong conclusions based on few observations, and that biases are common and systematic when predicting improbable events. In a more general perspective, such biases may induce public opinion and the media to call for dramatic swings in policy in response to highly improbable events. Politicians are then under pressure to yield to popular demands for drastic regulation. However, regulators would be well-advised to be aware of the common tendency to over-infer regularities from rare events and to carefully investigate whether observed data indeed warrants a dramatic swing in policy."

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"The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) launched the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) in November 1985. The goal of the NCEP is to contribute to reducing illness and death from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States by reducing the percent of Americans with high blood cholesterol. "

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"This health professional reference outlines cholesterol management in a sequence of easy-to-follow steps. "

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"The main objective of the paper is to propose a frequentist interpretation of probability in the context of model-based induction, anchored on the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) and justifiable on empirical grounds."

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After 4 decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing (mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred .05 criterion) still persists. This article reviews the problems with this practice...

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Why are we so reluctant to regulate driving with cell phones or lower speed limits despite clear statistical evidence that the number of deaths caused by these items is significant?

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