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"Peak oil poses a host of systemic risks to the global economy, and will increasingly disrupt supply chains in our globalized world. Contra to Yergin's view that Ricardian Comparative Advantage will produce abundant oil for export, oil-producing nations will continue to feed their domestic populations, leaving less for sale on world markets. OECD consumers will be increasingly priced out of oil markets as their disposable income adjusts downward to reflect energy costs. "
"In the TED video below, Lisa Margonelli of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative gives a fascinating 17-minute talk on the political psychology and the political economy of oil… and how the former distracts us from the latter."
" Dmitry Orlov, engineer and author, warns that the US's reliance on diminishing fuel supplies might be sending it down the same path the Soviet Union took before it collapsed.
In this fifth video in the series “Peak Oil and a Changing Climate” from The Nation and On The Earth Productions, Orlov, who was an eyewitness to the collapse of the Soviet Union, asserts that as oil becomes more expensive and scarcer, the US will no longer be able to finance its oil addiction and the economy will hit a wall."
This paper estimates the technological progress that has occurred since 1980 and the trade-offs that manufacturers and consumers face when choosing between fuel economy, weight and engine power characteristics. The results suggest that if weight, horsepower and torque were held at their 1980 levels, fuel economy for both passenger cars and light trucks could have increased by nearly 50 percent from 1980 to 2006; this is in stark contrast to the 15 percent by which fuel economy actually increased.
The present break down of political forces follows three different views of this thesis. The first view is that the land casino merely needs to be allowed to run. This is the "Confederate" wing of American politics. The second view is that the land casino can continue longer, but only if carefully managed, this is the "Moderate" view. The third view is that it requires careful management to transition away from the land casino, or the "Progressive" view.
Euphoria - title. Another lengthy essay by Stirling Newberry. Thesis: Obama's economic policies are basically Bush's policies competently managed.
in list: Economic Crisis
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In the present and near present, the story is Obama. But this is the tail end, the late majority of the "S" curve. Obama is omega-phoria, because he is the bearer of bearing the end of an old curve, not the begining of a new era, but the theory that the old era can be stretched out.
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Let me put this together. We have just had a frenzied peak attempt to establish a neo-Platonic state. That frenzy however, failed to gain the oil that it promised. We have not shifted from Chicago School neo-Platonists to something else, we have shifted from Chicago School Neo-Platonists focused on the noble lies part of the equation, to Chicago School Neo-Platonists focused on the incentives side of the equation. Cass Sunstien, for example, is an incentives Straussian. We have switched graduate students, not professors.
That is, Americans are still attempting to make the Bush play work: that of a rush to gain long term control over stasis assets.
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The geopolitical implications of this gathering crisis for world oil supply 2010-15 are immense. The risk of further military interventions and conflicts in the Middle East is clearly high. Total world oil reserves are estimated at 2.5-2.9 trillion barrel
in list: MN-Politics
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For AEO2007, an OCS access case was prepared to examine the potential impacts of the lifting of Federal restrictions on access to the OCS in the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, except for a relatively small tract in the eastern Gulf, resources in those areas are legally off limits to exploration and development. Mean estimates from the MMS indicate that technically recoverable resources currently off limits in the lower 48 OCS total 18 billion barrels of crude oil and 77 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Table 10).
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The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017.
it means not only a radically different structure of the economy, but a change in who runs American industry. And this is what the current political order is fighting to the death.
in list: Economic Crisis
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