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02 Jul 09

Youth unemployment and training / BBC - Today

  • 0749

    Any young person unemployed for a year will be given a job, work experience or training and if they do not accept it they will lose their benefits, the government has announced. Correspondent Jack Izzard reports on the problems of the young unemployed in Swindon. Professor Richard Pring, of Oxford University, reflects on why nearly one million 16 to 24-year-olds are not in employment, education or training in England.

  • 0838

    The prime minister's plans to tackle youth unemployment are forming a central part of the launch of the government's "Building Britain's Future". Former MPC member Professor Danny Blanchflower discusses what can be done for the one million people who are not in employment, education, or training.

27 May 09

Recession and Recovery: How Long? « The Baseline Scenario

  • Terrones’s key point was that recessions last longer, and take longer to recover from, if they are linked to financial crises or if they are globally synchronized, for reasons that are probably evident to our readers: popping credit bubbles lead to an increase in the savings rate, dampening consumption; and globally synchronized recessions mean that no country can export its way back to growth.
23 May 09

Morality tale of the banking crisis. LRB · John Lanchester: It’s Finished

  • ‘RBS is a responsible company. We carry out rigorous research so that we can be confident we know the issues that are most important to our stakeholders and we take practical steps to respond to what they tell us. Then occasionally, we blow all that shit off, fire up some crystal meth, and throw money around with such crazed abandon that it helps destroy the public finances of the world’s fifth biggest economy.’ See if you can guess which of those sentences is not in the report.
  • Put problem one and problem two together, and we have the current situation, in which the big banks are completely untransparent but also too big to fail. That is a catastrophic formula. We (the taxpaying we) have no choice but to keep them in business, and yet no real idea what’s going on inside them.
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20 May 09

The Hearing - The Economic Consequences of Rising Oil Prices

  • Even if we see significant short-run gains in global oil production capabilities, if demand from China and elsewhere returns to its previous rate of growth, it will not be too long before the same calculus that produced the oil price spike of 2007-08 will be back to haunt us again.
10 May 09

Steven Pearlstein - An Economist, an Academic Puzzle and a Lot of Promise - washingtonpost.com

  • For me, however, what's really exciting about Aplia is that it finally holds out the possibility of bringing to higher education the same productivity revolution that has lowered costs and improved quality in almost every other industry over the past two decades.
09 May 09

FT.com / World - Desperate ‘baby boomers’ return to work

  • Ms Coffey has an accounting background, but has struggled to find such work because technology has moved on. “I could take a set of books from nothing . . . and bring it all the way through to financial statements, tax returns and everything else,” she says. “But tell me how to do it on the computer!”
08 May 09

FT.com / Comment / Analysis - In the middle of it

  • Lord Mandelson identifies “multifunctional technologies”, such as low-carbon vehicles, lightweight building materials, biotechnology, renewable energy, next-generation broadband and plastic electronics as areas where the UK can excel. He argues that government has a role to supplement markets in creating the innovation base, skills, infrastructure and regulatory environment to succeed in areas where Britain has a competitive advantage. Further policy statements are planned on how it will work.
03 May 09

1930s Blame the Victorians

UK interwar poor performance based on low-wage exports

www.cepr.org/...DP83.HTM - Preview

curee

  • The authors find evidence of considerable continuity between the 1930s
    and the late 19th century. The Victorian economy had specialised in
    industries with a relatively low utilisation of technology and human
    capital, compared to those sectors in the forefront of the 'second wave
    of Industrial Revolution', such as electrical and chemical engineering.
    The analysis of Crafts and Thomas suggests that inter-war patterns of
    employment reflected an earlier reluctance on the part of British
    industry and government to commit resources to technological innovation
    and vocational education, a phenomenon remarked upon by contemporaries.
    This reluctance made the UK economy very vulnerable to the more intense
    international competition of the 20th century. The authors' results lend
    support to those economic historians who have argued that inter-war
    unemployment in Britain was largely rooted in long-term structural
    problems and was brought out by the decline of low-technology industries
    which had dominated the 19th century.

Q1 GDP Confirms That Future Quarters Will Decline at Slower Rate. (posted 4/29/09) « MILLER’S MUSINGS

  • Perhaps not “green shoots” as the popular press call them, but a moderation of inventory liquidation, the end of the drop in residential construction, and continued but slower improvement in our trade balance are the best hopes for the next couple of quarters.  All in all, the 1Q numbers confirm my opinion that the steepest part of the contraction is behind us.  They say nothing, however, about how soon the decline will end, what will propel a recovery, or how much vigor it may or may not have.

Dating the trough (Gordon, Vox)

  • Green shoot or dead twig: Can unemployment claims predict the end of the American recession?

After the Great Recession - An Interview With President Obama - NYTimes.com

  • THE PRESIDENT: We set out a goal in my speech to the joint session that said everybody should have at least one year of post-high-school training. And I think it would be too rigid to say everybody needs a four-year-college degree. I think everybody needs enough post-high-school training that they are competent in fields that require technical expertise, because it’s very hard to imagine getting a job that pays a living wage without that — or it’s very hard at least to envision a steady job in the absence of that.

    And so to the extent that we can upgrade not only our high schools but also our community colleges to provide a sound technical basis for being able to perform complicated tasks in a 21st-century economy, then I think that not only is that good for the individuals, but that’s going to be critical for the economy as a whole.

28 Apr 09

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Fixing bankrupt financial systems is just the beginning

  • Even worse than this choice between grim alternatives is the fact that the path to recovery is likely to be slow, whichever is chosen. As the latest World Economic Outlook notes in an important chapter, recessions that follow financial crises are unusually severe. So, too, are globally synchronised recessions. But now we are living through a globally synchronised recession that coincides with a huge financial crisis that emanates from the core countries of the world economy, particularly the US. This is a recipe for a long recession and a weak recovery. Whatever is done about the financial system, “deleveraging” is the order of the day (see chart). The UK’s position in this looks dire. But that of the US looks quite bad, too, even compared with that of Japan in the 1990s.

No job, no home and no future: graduates' poisoned inheritance | News | The First Post

  • And perhaps the most vicious blow: jobs. Some experts project that there will be 3.5 million unemployed in Britain within 18 months. That would be the highest level for at least 20 years. It means
    hundreds of thousands of new graduates will spend many of their most productive years idle, growing disenchanted with the system and making no progress in their careers.

Why the ‘green shoots’ of recovery could yet wither (Wolf, Ft.com)

  • Consider obvious perils: given huge excess capacity, a risk of deflation remains, with potentially dire results for overindebted borrowers; given the rising unemployment and huge losses in wealth, indebted households in low-saving countries may raise their savings rates to exceptional levels; given the collapse in demand and profits, cutbacks in investment may be exceptionally prolonged and severe; given massive and persistent fiscal deficits and soaring debt, risk aversion may lead to higher interest rates on government borrowing; and given the flight from riskier borrowers, a number of emerging economies may find themselves in a vicious downward spiral of weakening capital inflow, falling output and reductions in the quality of assets.
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