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Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

*  14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
*  8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
*  3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

noaa hurricane named storms Major Hurricanes

This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months

climate change hurricane hurricane season global warming sea surface temperatures

All things being equal, if a storm took the same track of Gustav (or Katrina) occurred in 2050, then, rather than weakening before making landfall, it would probably have strengthened considerably.

katrina gustav climate change global warming hurricane

Hurricanes can get much, much bigger and stronger than we have so far seen in the Atlantic. The most intense Pacific storm on record was Super Typhoon Tip in 1979, which reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph near the center. On its wide rim, gale-force winds (39 mph) extended over a diameter of an astonishing 1350 miles. It would have covered nearly half the continental United States.

hurricane typhoon global warming climate change