Peak oil, bailout bunk, and the coming recession | Energy Bulletin
The concept of peak oil started as a geological theory* that went like this: if you knew the amount of oil produced in the past, the rate at which it was produced, and roughly how much oil remained under the earth’s surface, the theory could help you determine when oil production would likely start declining. Over the years however, proponents and critics alike recognized that more factors than just the size of oil resources and the ease of exploiting them would determine when world oil production would peak and plateau.
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Peak Oil and Worldwide Economic Recession Soften Oil Prices: Lull Before the Storm | Energy Bulletin
Oil Price Plunges from a Zenith
In the first half of 2008 we saw oil climb to approach $150 a barrel amid the pundits’ warning of oil rocketing to $200 a barrel and way beyond due to the phenomenon of Peak Oil. In the wake of those heady days we have now witnessed the slumping of oil prices to well under $100 a barrel into October.
We have often heard that this is all within the context of declining oil supplies and escalating demand due to the rapid economic development taking hold in large regions and populations of earth, for example like in China and India, in addition to the maintenance of development in the more developed countries like the USA and Europe.
The graph below illustrated this rise and fall of oil prices, and particularly the fall in prices from an all time zenith of a few months ago (Williams, 2008).
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Peak Moment: Oil and Gas -- The Next Meltdown? | Global Public Media
Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. In an interview plus excerpts from his presentation at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA) conference on September 22, 2008, Matt highlights the risks and vulnerabilities in the finished oil products system, and answers audience questions.
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Bloomberg.com: Global Oil Output Capacity to Fall Short With 6 Years, IEA Says
Global oil production capacity will be insufficient within six years, according to Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency.
Capacity will improve over the next two years, and ``after 2013, the situation is somewhat worrisome,'' Tanaka said today in Berlin. ``There is not enough capacity and we want to see much more expansion.''
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Surviving Peak Oil, Preparations, and Relocation: Peak Oil Preparation: Educating Family, Loved Ones, and Friends
Peak Oil will soon generate problems for individuals and families around the globe: unemployment; bankruptcy; inability to pay for heating oil, higher education, mortgage, and rent etc; the need for family members to share residences and expenses; violent street crime even in previously safe neighborhoods; the separation of family members (due to high airfares, the high cost of gasoline, or gasoline rationing); and anxiety and depression.
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Kicking oil habit harder than they say: ENN
Barack Obama and John McCain are promising voters a Tomorrowland of electric cars and high-speed trains and solar panels, a vision of American life without a drop of imported oil.
But their plans to get there look more like Fantasyland.
A host of energy policy experts agree that true "energy independence"—a key catch phrase of this presidential campaign—would be far more expensive and disruptive than either candidate is telling you.
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Recent drop in crude is an illusion - oil is going to $500. - Sep. 22, 2008
If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding.
Matt Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks.
(Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?
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Peak oil and nuclear energy – Part II
Answering some of the most commonly asked questions about nuclear power plants.
To read part I of Peak oil and nuclear energy, click here.
What are we going to do with all of the spent fuel?
Let’s start with the saddest observation of all. There is no need to have this problem. France, which produces 79% of its electricity with nuclear plants, does not. France, and almost everyone else, reprocesses their fuel. We do not because Jimmy Carter (a nuclear engineer, for Lord’s sake) decided in 1977 that it was too “dangerous” because of the fear of nuclear proliferation (which has continued nonetheless). Reagan reversed Carter in 1981 but reprocessing has never been initiated. Nonsense. Read this to learn the reality of proliferation.
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Peak oil and nuclear power – Part I
The concept of peak oil is not about running out of crude oil. It never has been. A Shell (OTO: RYDAF, Stock Forum) geologist (M. King Hubbert) in the '50s formulated, from his years of study of oil field production, his theory of Peak Oil. He predicted, accurately, that U.S. crude production would peak between 1965 and 1970.
The actual year was 1970. If you never again read anything else about peak oil, read this.
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September 18, 2008: Drilling for Oil is Not the Answer
# The United States consumes nearly 21 million barrels of petroleum per day (7.5 billion barrels per year), one fourth the world total. (1)
# Of the crude oil consumed in the U.S., 66 percent is imported. (2)
# The U.S. is on pace to spend over $500 billion on petroleum imports in 2008. (3)
# U.S. oil production currently occurs onshore in the lower 48 states (2.9 million barrels per day (mbd)), offshore (1.4 mbd, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico), and in Alaska (0.7 mbd). (4)
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The Oil Drum | Nate's Reality Report Interview - Hurricanes, Financial Markets and Peak Oil
Last week, Nate Hagens was interviewed by Jason Bradford on the "Reality Report". The radio program is about 47 minutes long, and Nate's interview is the last 40% of it. A link to his interview can be found here
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AFP: US lawmakers vote to end 26-year ban on offshore drilling
US lawmakers Tuesday sought to overturn a decades-old ban on offshore drilling voting in favor of a new energy bill which has been spurred by spiralling oil prices.
The new bill, which was put forward by the majority Democrats in the House of Representatives, was approved by 236 votes to 189.
It would allow drilling off the US coastline up to a distance of between 50 to 100 miles (80 to 160 kilometers) overturning a 1981 federal moratorium.
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Resource Insights: The net energy cliff
Charles Hall, the father of the energy return on investment (EROI) concept, once told me that our current society would probably not be able to function if the EROI for the entire society slipped below five.
What does that mean? First, a quick review. It takes energy to get energy. EROI is a measurement of how efficient a process, an enterprise or a society is in obtaining energy. EROI is usually expressed in a ratio, say, 20 to 1. That would mean that the process being studied produced 20 units of energy for every one unit expended. As it turns out, that's about what conventional crude oil returns.
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The dress rehearsal is over | Energy Bulletin
As oil crosses $100 on its way south, not even a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and a statement from OPEC that the cartel will cut production by over 500,000 barrels per day seems capable of halting the bloodletting. In response, the Financial Post features an article titled “Peak Oil peak,” quoting this writer out of context; compare this with my commentary, which was the source of the quote).
Wasn’t the price of oil supposed to rise endlessly? Wasn’t the world supposed to end by now? What happened? What does it all mean?
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The energy secret - understanding what drives the 21st century and why peak oil really matters | Energy Bulletin
by Julian Darley
There are at least two invisible things that tend to be ferociously difficult to understand. One is relations among humans and the other is energy. Especially when the former want more of the latter. And for some reason, understandable perhaps but also unfortunate, we are mostly loathe to try to comprehend where our energy comes from. Thus there is a kind of 'energy secret': we cannot see energy and we don't seem to be very good at understanding it, even though without it there is no life here or anywhere else in the universe.
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Peak Oil Review -| Energy Bulletin
As last week began, Hurricane Gustav was threatening to tear up a substantial portion of the US’s oil production and refining capacity in the Gulf as well as devastating New Orleans. However, Cuba, cooler water and the hurricane steering currents intervened so that within hours it became apparent that Gustav was going to be a more benign hurricane than those of three years ago. At the last minute, Gustav turned west, thus sparing New Orleans from substantial damage, but instead managing to tear up most of Louisiana’s power grid. With this news, the oil markets focused on the demand destruction that was likely to ensue from sagging world economic activity.
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Energy Bulletin: Heinberg: Is peak oil "A Misleading Concept?"
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
... There is a veritable cottage industry of economists and statisticians (including Daniel Yergin, Bjorn Lomborg, Peter Huber, and Michael Lynch) who tirelessly implore their readers not to panic over oil prices because The Market will always come to the rescue. As easy conventional oil depletes, tar sands, oil shale, and biofuels become more economic to produce. Even coal-to-liquids becomes feasible on a large scale. And, as everyone knows, there is an endless amount of coal.
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Energy Tech Stocks – The Question Wall Street is Ignoring but the World Can’t: Is Oil Production Falling Faster Than Demand?
Every Wall Street forecast of where oil prices are headed next – up or down – seems to be based solely on the degree of “demand destruction” that can be expected. But what about “supply destruction?” Whatever the level of demand destruction, if supply destruction is greater, oil prices will rise, not fall.
What Happened to Peak Oil? - Seeking Alpha
Up until Tuesday, oil was crashing down toward $110 a barrel as demand growth estimates have been clipped. So what happened to peak oil? Nothing happened; peak oil should still be a concern.
For a larger context on peak oil, see my June post 'Peak oil: are we there yet?' From where I sit, I see oil as having played a major role in creating the downturn we are now experiencing. Basically, oil prices rose to the point where we cried uncle, reduced our consumption accordingly, and the economy suffered as a result. Before 1973, the world had never see an oil shock. But, this is the 4th such oil shock since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 when Nixon ended the U.S. dollar peg to gold and ushered in an era of floating currencies. Methinks I see a connection.
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YouTube - Technology Management Program UCSB: Energy Peak Oil
Peak oil theory states that oil will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output. It is estimated that approximately half of all oil...
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Notation: * = Private bookmark and comment|… = Clipping [?] | … = Public highlight [?]
