Economic data to watch on Tuesday include the S&P/Case
Shiller August national home price index, due at 9:00 a.m. EDT,
and the Conference Board's consumer confidence at 1400 GMT.
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Identifying business cycle turning points in real time
Tags: business_cycle, chauvet, investment, piger on 2007-11-04 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Wall Street Futures Lower Ahead Of Fed Meeting - New York Times
Tags: federal_reserve, investment, rate_cut on 2007-10-30 -All Annotations (0) -About
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"If today the further decline of consumer confidence is
confirmed yet again, we expect that expectations of the Fed
cutting interest rates further on Wednesday will at least
become more firmly established," Commerzbank said.
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OIC: Options Basics
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n investor who holds one of these options in a trading account is commonly said to have a position in that contract.
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A standard equity call option (including LEAPS®) conveys a right, not an obligation, to its holder to purchase 100 shares of the underlying stock, at a specific price per share, for a predetermined amount of time.
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n equity put option, on the other hand, conveys a right to its holder to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock, at a specific price per share, for a predetermined amount of time.
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Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crises: The Asian Experience
Tags: chauvet, dong_fang, economic_review, investment, leading_indicator on 2007-09-24 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Yield curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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This was seen in 1998 during the Long Term Capital Management failure when there was a slight inversion on part of the curve.
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inverted yield curves also imply that the market believes inflation will remain low.
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An inverted curve may indicate a worsening economic situation in the future.
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Historically, the 20-year Treasury bond yield has averaged approximately two percentage points above that of three-month Treasury bills. In situations when this gap increases (e.g. 20-year Treasury yield rises relatively higher than the three-month Treasury yield), the economy is expected to improve quickly in the future.
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This positive slope reflects investor expectations for the economy to grow in the future and, importantly, for this growth to be associated with a greater expectation that inflation will rise in the future rather than fall.
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term structure of interest rates.
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the yield curve is the relation between the interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency.
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Moving Average
Tags: investment, moving_average, technical_analysis on 2007-08-18 -All Annotations (0) -About
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訊號的發生將產生時間落差
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菲利普·費雪 - MBA智库百科
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投資人十不原則
一、不買處於創業階段的公司
二、不要因為一支好股票在未上市交易，就棄之不顧。
三、不要因為你喜歡某公司年報的格調，就去買該公司的股票。
四、不要因為一家公司的本益比高，便表示未來的盈餘成長已大致反映在價格上。
五、不要錙銖計較
六、不要過度強調分散投資
七、不要擔心在戰爭陰影籠罩下買進股票
八、不要忘了你的吉爾伯特和沙利文
九、買進真正優秀的成長股時，除了考慮價格，不要忘了時機因素。
十、不要隨群眾起舞
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買進優良普通股的十五個要點
一、這家公司的產品或服務有沒有充分的市埸潛力──至少幾年內營業額能大幅成長。
二、管理階層是否決心開發新產品或製程，在目前有吸引力的產品線成長潛力利用殆盡之際，進一步提升總銷售潛力。
三、和公司的規模相比，這家公司的研發努力，有多大的效果？
四、公司有沒有高人一等的銷售組織？
五、公司的利潤率高不高？
六、公司做了什麼事，以維持或改善利潤率？
七、公司的勞資和人事關係好不好？
八、公司的高階主管關係很好嗎？
九、公司管理階層深度夠嗎？
十、公司的成本分析和會計紀錄做得好嗎？
十一、是不是有其它的經營層面，尤其是本行業較為獨特的地方，投資人能得到重要的線索，曉得一家公司相對於競爭同業，可能多突出？
十二、公司有沒有短期或長期的盈餘展望？
十三、在可預見的將來，這家公司是否會因為成長而必鬚髮行股票，以取得足夠資金，使得發行在外的股票增加，現有持股人的利益將預期的成長而大幅受損？
十四、管理階層是否報喜不報憂？
十五、管理階層的誠信正直態度是否無庸置疑？
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意義
Tags: investment, kd, stochastic, technical_analysis on 2007-08-17 -All Annotations (0) -About
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背離形成為趨勢轉變訊號，當股價突破前波高點，但指標走勢低於前波高點時；或指標突破前波高點，但股價走
勢卻一波波往下時，則為背離現象。前者為負背離，後者稱正背離。當負背離發生時為技術面轉弱的徵兆。 -
買賣訊號出現頻繁，較適合短線操作。並可配合RSI指標使用。以補其指標易高檔鈍化的缺點。
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KD指標較敏感，買賣訊號出現較頻繁。
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由於D值較K值平緩。因此當K值在超賣區向上穿越D值時，表示趨勢發生改變，為一買進訊號。(即一般所稱
KD指標低檔交叉向上時為買進訊號)。而當K值在買超區向下跌破D值時則為賣出訊號。 -
在大多頭行情時，買超數值可能需要向上調至95。
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KD指標通常在80以上被視為超買區，在20以下則視為超賣區。且KD指標訊號明顯，十分適合短線操作。
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呂宗耀從負債千萬到翻身上億實錄 - 投資策略心法 - 聚財網 理財論壇
Tags: investment, stock_market_history on 2007-08-17 -All Annotations (0) -About
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呂宗耀現在的投資做法，是參考華倫巴菲特的老師葛拉漢所創的葡萄藤投資理論。
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在民國七十八、七十九年，股市狂飆到一二六八二最高點的年代裡，突遇財政部要開徵證券所得稅事件，導致台股大崩盤、股市應聲跌到二四八五點，
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意義
Tags: investment, rsi, technical_analysis on 2007-08-17 -All Annotations (0) -About
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當股價創新高或新低，但RSI並沒有配合創新高或新低時，代表盤勢即將發生回檔或反彈。
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由於RSI可以視為一領先指標,故當RSI指標與盤勢發生背離時，則代表盤勢即將反轉，為買進或賣出的訊號。
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可利用長天期的RSI均線與RSI線的關係來作買賣訊號判斷.或是以RSI值為樣本,去計算其KD值來求得買賣訊號。
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RSI沒有明顯規則性的買進或賣出訊號，當指標在高檔或時，僅能說明情行反轉的可能性增高，但並沒有辦法進一
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RSI指標在高檔或低檔有時會有鈍化的現象，因此會發生過早賣出或買進。
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一般以70以上代表買超，30以下代表賣超。
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雖然RSI數值越大代表買方力道越強，但強弩之末總會衰竭，因此當RSI大到某一程度時通常開始代表買超
現象，需注意反轉。同理，當RSI低到某一程度時，通常代表市場出現非理性的賣超現象，表示底部區已近
。
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什么叫吸货期_百度知道
Tags: investment, technical_analysis on 2007-08-14 -All Annotations (0) -About
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庄家理论的核心是什么呢？可以概括地划分为四种：1 庄家的吸筹平均成本；2 庄家的持仓数量；3 庄家拉升的空间－现阶段有无可能出货或放弃股票；4 庄家的套路（吸筹、震仓、拉升、回调、冲高、出货）
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无庄家家一定不涨的道理已经是尽人皆知
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意義
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當股價在上漲情況，但OBV卻在下降時，則顯示市場籌碼正在分散，主力出貨的可能性高，為賣出訊號。
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當股價盤整或小跌時，OBV卻呈現大增的情況時，則顯示市場可能有人在作集中籌碼的動作，這個情況可
視為買進訊號。 -
OBV指標的使用必須配合股價走勢，才具有判斷意義.OBV可用以，判斷籌碼是趨於集中(accumulation)或分
散(distribution)，尤其是股價處於盤整時。 -
股價盤整許久時，當股價出現突破時，需配合OBV來檢視成交量是否伴隨著股價上漲而擴大，如果是，才
是有效突破，則此時為買進訊號。
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意義
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MACD屬於落後指標，因此用於確認波段走勢而非預測波段走勢。
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(a)當股價連續創新高但OSC沒有創新高時為負背離—賣出訊號。這是因為如果OSC沒有隨著創新高時，代表著DIF不
夠強，亦即需求指數有逐漸散離的先兆，因此這時是賣出訊號。
(b)當股價連續創新低但OSC沒有創新低時為正背離—買出訊號。而d.與e.二者相輔助使用。 -
當OSC與股價走勢背離時為買賣訊號。
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當DIF由MACD上方往下方跌破時，為賣出波段的確立。
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當DIF由MACD下方往上方突破時，表示短天與長天的需求指數擴大，市場逐漸熱絡，為買進波段的確立。
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搭配其他領先指標使用，如量能指標。
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遇到盤整格局時獲利效果不佳。
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DIF與MACD交叉時，顯示趨勢形成，波段走勢確立。
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MACD的原理在於以長天期(慢的)移動平均線來作為大趨
勢基準，而以短天期(快的)移動平均線作為趨勢變化的判定，所以當快的移動平均線與慢的移動平均線二者交會時
，代表趨勢已發生反轉，MACD是確立波段趨勢的重要指標。 -
具有確認中長期波段走勢並找尋短線買賣點的功能。
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股民学苑 洗盤
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此种情况的特征是股价不动，但成交量却不断扩大
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即主力一开盘就全数以跌停挂出，散户在看到跌停打不开时，深恐明天会再 来个跌停，于是也以跌停杀出，待跌停杀出的股票到达一定程度而不再增加时，主力乃迅速 将自己的跌停挂出单取消，一下将散户的跌停抛单吃光，往上拉抬
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跌停挂出法
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股价忽高忽低，而成交量也不断扩大
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上冲下洗法
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固定价位区洗盘法
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开高杀低法
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几乎是快杀到跌停才甘心，但是股价却是不 跌停，不然就是在跌停价位，不断产生大笔买盘
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MACD - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tags: investment, macd, technical_analysis on 2007-08-12 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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Positive divergence between MACD and price arises when price makes a new selloff low, but the MACD doesn't make a new low (i.e. it remains above where it fell to on that previous price low). This is interpreted as bullish, suggesting the downtrend may be nearly over. Negative divergence is the same thing when rising (i.e. price makes a new rally high, but MACD doesn't rise as high as before), this is interpreted as bearish.
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A crossing of the MACD line up through zero is interpreted as bullish, or down through zero as bearish
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MACD is a trend following indicator, and is designed to identify trend changes. It's generally not recommended for use in ranging market conditions.
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This is to buy when the MACD crosses up through the signal line, or sell when it crosses down through the signal line. These crossings may occur too frequently, and other tests may have to be applied.
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histogram = MACD − signal
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![signal = EMA[9]\,of\,MACD](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/4/d/f/4dfa67429145ea396d5ee5df7c674799.png)
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![MACD = EMA[12]\,of\,price - EMA[26]\,of\,price](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/e/6/5/e652f873b1b6c926901af35e1aaa41aa.png)
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It is prone to whipsaw
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Since the crash of the market in 2000, most strategies no longer recommend using MACD as the primary method of analysis, but instead believe it should be used as a monitoring tool only.
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It has often been criticized for failing to respond in mild/volatile market conditions.[
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It shows the difference between a fast and slow exponential moving average (EMA) of closing prices.
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Moving Average Convergence / Divergence
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Technical analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tags: investment, technical_analysis on 2007-08-12 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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Relative strength index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tags: investment, rsi, technical_analysis on 2007-08-12 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Large surges and drops in securities will affect RSI, but it could just be a false buy or sell. The RSI is best used as a complement with other technical analysis indicators.
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The principle is that when there's a high proportion of daily movement in one direction it suggests an extreme, and prices are likely to reverse.
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Wilder considered a security overbought if it reached the 70 level, meaning that the speculator should consider selling. Or conversely oversold at the 30 level.
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![RSI = 100 \times { EMA[N]\;of\;U \over (EMA[N]\;of\;U) + (EMA[N]\;of\;D) }](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/8/1/5/8153b94a437a2d27a0b2338e6ed33916.png)
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![RS = { EMA[N] \; of \; U \over EMA[N] \; of \; D }](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/2/0/6/206954953516f2c520c586391a2cbc2f.png)
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For each day an upward change U or downward change D amount is calculated.[3] On an up day, ie. today's close higher than yesterday's,
- U = closetoday − closeyesterday
- D = 0
Or conversely on a down day (notice D is a positive number),
- U = 0
- D = closeyesterday − closetoday
If today's close is the same as yesterday's, both U and D are zero. An average U is calculated with an exponential moving average using a given N-days smoothing factor, and likewise for D. The ratio of those averages is the Relative Strength,
This is converted to a Relative Strength Index between 0 and 100,
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