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Eurosclerosis Is U.S. Diagnosis Not Japan Stagnation (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may have avoided the Japanese disease of prolonged stagnation only to end up with a dose of eurosclerosis: chronically high unemployment in a growing economy. "
Is Obama Overstating Importance of Boosting Lending? - Real Time Economics - WSJ
"President Barack Obama’s key message in a meeting with bank executives this morning was to boost lending, especially to small business, but is restricted access to credit really the biggest problem for the sector?"
Calculated Risk: Housing Bust and Mobility
"A couple more articles on the impact of the housing bust on mobility ..."
National Journal Online -- Economy Experts -- When To Tighten Fiscal Policy?
"A report on the federal debt burden due out today from the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform calls for delaying serious deficit and debt reduction until 2012, so as not to endanger a recovery; President Obama says he will start that debt-cutting with the upcoming budget, but he is also proposing what amounts to a continuation of many of this year's stimulus measures to create jobs. If an apparent recovery gathers pace in the coming months, should the government wait a year or two to confront the alarming budget projections?"
TheMoneyIllusion » Be careful of accounting identities
"Yesterday Krugman had a post claiming that freer trade would not boost demand, and hence would not promote recovery from the current recession:"
Interview with US Economic Recovery Advisory Board Chair Paul Volcker: America Must 'Reassert Stability and Leadership' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
"Paul Volcker, 82, is one of US President Barack Obama's leading economic advisors. SPIEGEL spoke with him about the economic challeges facing the US, whether new taxes are needed to address public debt and how America can return to a position of economic leadership."
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
"We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present. We construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks, corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit-spending, deficit-financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion. We apply the method to US quarterly data from 1955-2000. We find that deficit-financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve GDP, with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional GDP per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue five years after the shock. "
Economic View - Tax Cuts Might Accomplish What Spending Hasn’t - NYTimes.com
"IMAGINE you are a physician and a patient arrives in your office with a troubling and mysterious disease. Some of the symptoms are familiar, but others are not. You have never treated anyone with quite this set of problems."
Economists Revising Up Fourth Quarter Growth Projections - Real Time Economics - WSJ
"A string of stronger-than-expected economic reports provoked several analysts to revise up their projections for fourth quarter gross domestic product."
The Case for a V: Could 7% Growth Rates Return? - Real Time Economics - WSJ
"The economy could be getting ready to roar. In fact, the roar could blast your eardrums — at least according to two obscure economic indicators. The short conclusion: growth rates in U.S. gross domestic product could surpass an annualized 7%."
Banks and small businesses: For want of a loan | The Economist
"IT IS basically a second stimulus, though no one wants to call it that. On December 8th President Barack Obama announced a set of proposals to address unemployment and made it clear that he wanted to use some of the unspent TARP funds (money set aside to support failing banks) to help pay for them. No precise figure was given. Some $50 billion will be spent on infrastructure projects; there will also be new rebates for home insulation and other energy-saving incentives. But the linchpin of the administration’s effort is a broad push to support small businesses. "
Econbrowser: Employment Bounceback?
"From Peter Hooper, Torsten Slok, Christine Dobridge, "Robust growth needed to avoid jobless recovery," Deutsche Bank Global Economic Perspectives (Dec. 9) [not online]:"
Small Business Owners Are More Gloomy - Real Time Economics - WSJ
"Small business owners grew a bit more pessimistic in November."
Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan
"This paper reviews the rationale for quantitative easing when central bank policy rates reach near zero levels in light of recent announcements regarding direct asset purchases by the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Empirical evidence from the previous period of quantitative easing in Japan between 2001 and 2006 is presented. During this earlier period the Bank of Japan was able to expand the monetary base very quickly and significantly. Quantitative easing translated into a greater and more lasting expansion of M1 relative to nominal GDP. Deflation subsided by 2005. As soon as inflation appeared to stabilize near a rate of zero, the Bank of Japan rapidly reduced the monetary base as a share of nominal income as it had announced in 2001. The Bank was able to exit from extensive quantitative easing within less than a year. Some implications for the current situation in Europe and the United States are discussed. "
Econbrowser: Commodity prices and the Fed
"I've been discussing possible explanations for the recent tendency of the dollar prices of commodities to move together. On Friday we received a very useful data point for distinguishing between the different hypotheses."
Credit booms go wrong | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"Are credit bubbles dangerous? This column presents long-run historical data showing that, over the past 140 years, episodes of financial instability were often the result of "credit booms gone wrong". Recent years witnessed an unprecedented expansion in the role of credit in the macroeconomy. It is a mishap of history that – just as credit matters more than ever before – the reigning doctrine gives it no role in central bank policies. "
Fed Officials Indicate Central Bank Unlikely to Alter Policy Soon - Real Time Economics - WSJ
"Two Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank isn’t likely to take its foot off the gas pedal soon."
The price of oil and the macroeconomy | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"n the 1970s, large increases in the price of oil were associated with sharp decreases in output and large increases in inflation. In the 2000s, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much milder movements. This column attributes the difference in the US to more flexible labour markets and more credible monetary policy during the Great Moderation. "
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Those unbelievable US payrolls
"Just how amazing were the US payroll numbers released on Friday?"
National Journal Online -- Economy Experts -- Is The Jobs Outlook Improving?
"The surprisingly small job losses in November, along with revisions for the previous two months, are encouraging some commentators (such as the New York Times' Floyd Norris) to speculate that a return to employment growth may be at hand. What do you think? The consensus view of a very slow recovery in employment is based, in part, on the expectation that this recovery would resemble those after the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions. Is there a good case for this? What are the factors that could contribute to significant worsening of unemployment in the coming months?"
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