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The Stimulus Worked? - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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Brace Bartlett highlights this CBO report (pdf) on the stimulus. The bottom line:
CBO estimates that in the third
quarter of calendar year 2009, an additional 600,000 to
1.6 million people were employed in the United States,
and real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product
(GDP) was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher, than would
have been the case in the absence of ARRA [American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act]...Those ranges are intended to reflect the uncertainty of
such estimates and to encompass most economists’ views
on the effects of fiscal stimulus.
The Revival Of Fiscal Conservatism - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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The GOP is a party that has become increasingly conservative,
particularly on fiscal issues. Obama's stimulus package of nearly $800
billion, bailouts for banks and the auto industry, and a health-care
bill with a price tag of nearly $900 billion over 10 years have aroused
strong opposition on the right.Almost three-quarters of Republicans and GOP-leaners identify
themselves as "conservative" on most issues, up sharply from a couple
of years ago... On fiscal issues, the percentage calling themselves conservative has
soared to more than eight in 10. More striking is that a majority
considers themselves to be "very conservative" on fiscal issues, up
about 20 points in two years. -
The better news is that Republican voters understand that the GOP is also responsible for the fiscal mess:
Just 1 percent pick George W. Bush as the best reflection of the
party's principles, and only a single person in the poll cites former
vice president Richard B. Cheney. About seven in 10 say Bush bears at
least "some" of the blame for the party's problems. - 2 more annotations...
Quote For The Day - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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"The stimulus is doing what it was supposed to do—it is contributing to ending the recession. In my view, without the stimulus, G.D.P would still be negative and unemployment would be firmly over 11 percent,"
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Mark Zandi, economics adviser to the McCain campaign. More on Zandi here.
From Dollars To Death Panels: How Republicans Distorted Debates On Capitol Hill | TPMDC
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Number Five: Paul Ryan Draws Line On Graph
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Matthew Yglesias » Private Sector Forecasters Say Stimulus is Boosting Growth and Employment
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all indications are that it really is working—and working quite well—in terms of keeping the unemployment rate lower than it otherwise would have been while also keeping the GDP level higher than it otherwise would have been.
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but as Jackie Calms and Michael Cooper points out in an excellent piece among private sector forecasters there’s a clear pro-ARRA consensus:
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Obama, Deficit Hawk - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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The recession made deficit cutting in the here and now imprudent in his first year; but now addressing the long-term debt is itself necessary for stabilizing the economy - and reassuring independent voters that he, unlike his predecessor, gives a damn about fiscal health. Well: the good news is that he's going to do exactly that:
President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year's State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs, according to top aides involved in the planning.
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On the practical side, Obama has spent more money on new programs in nine months than Bill Clinton did in eight years, pushing the annual deficit to $1.4 trillion.
- 6 more annotations...
Matthew Yglesias » Stimulus and the Future
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those who claim fiscal restraint amidst a depression is a favor to young people don’t know what they’re talking about
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Deficit hawks like to complain that today’s young people will end up having to pay higher taxes to service the debt we’re running up right now. But anyone who really cared about the prospects of young Americans would be pushing for much more job creation, since the burden of high unemployment falls disproportionately on young workers — and those who enter the work force in years of high unemployment suffer permanent career damage, never catching up with those who graduated in better times.
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On Today's GDP Numbers | The White House
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Indeed, the two-quarter swing in the rate of growth of 9.9 percentage points was the largest since 1980.
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The Curious Case of Bruce Bartlett - The Atlantic Business Channel
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Suppose you had a 10 percent VAT and we said we weren't going to
collect it for the next 10 months. People would buy like crazy. They'd
buy toilet paper, they'd buy anything they could get their hands on
that they knew they'd need in the future. We're depriving ourselves of
a great stimulant tool by ignoring this.
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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This year's stimulus bill was 1,100 pages. The climate bill that the House passed in June was 1,200 pages. Bill Clinton's 1993 health care plan was famously 1,342 pages long. Budget bills can run even longer: In 2007, President Bush's ran to 1,482 pages.
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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The first is typical and predictable free-trader-ism: If the number of American car owners is dwindling because Americans are buying more foreign cars, I'd say American consumers are probably better off, because the foreign cars must be better or cheaper or otherwise more desirable. But this also seems like one of those situations where the wonders of free trade extend only so far, especially as they pertain to the domestic stimulus benefits of the Cash for Clunkers program.
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But a third point: The fact that a lot of the dollars are going to foreign companies does not mean the program hasn't been successful. We don't live in a zero-sum world, and the simple fact that a law benefits foreign companies and foreign economies doesn't mean it's bad for America, too. It can be good for both
Nate Silver to Republicans: Raise Taxes - National Deficit Fix - Esquire
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We are now on the verge of the longest period since the creation of the income tax without an increase in what the wealthiest taxpayers pay — fifteen years, matching the no-new-taxes interval from 1952 to 1966. Meanwhile, even the White House's own figures project several trillion dollars in deficit spending over the next decade, which would greatly exacerbate the roughly $10.6 trillion in debt that Barack Obama inherited from the Bush administration. Deficits are once again hot news. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in June found that 24 percent of Americans regard the federal budget deficit as the top economic priority — the highest fraction since mid-1994, when Clinton raised taxes. And even in these dire economic times, Americans seem willing to make some sacrifices to pay the debt down: 58 percent said they care more about paring the deficit than stimulating the economy, according to the same poll.
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From 1976 through 2004, Republican presidential candidates beat Democratic ones by at least 12 points among Americans in the top income bracket.
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The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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The most widely dispersed elements of the stimulus -- the almost $300 billion in tax cuts, distributed to far more than 18% of the population -- were designed to be inconspicuous. Consumers were not supposed to realize what the tax rebate portion of the stimulus was going to "improve their personal situation."
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The whole theory -- backed by lots of behavioral research from Richard Thaler and others -- is that people shouldn't notice the money, and file it in a separate "mental account." And sure, there are limits to the counterintuitive charms of this point: The simple fact that people don't notice the stimulus dollars is not affirmative evidence that the stimulus is working. (Since it's possible to imagine people saving money they don't notice.) But the mere fact that most people tell pollsters they don't notice the stimulus is not evidence one way or another. Relax, USA Today.
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