russia

18 Dec 09

I was the head of the KGB's foreign
counterintelligence branch when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Dec.
24, 1979. The fateful order to send our military into such difficult terrain
was by no means a foregone conclusion. Before Soviet leaders made the final
call, we wrung our hands, considered our options, and argued among ourselves.
Here is the inside story of how that wrenching decision was made.
At the
time, I viewed Afghanistan as a country within the Soviet sphere of interest
and thought we had to do whatever possible to prevent the Americans and the CIA
from installing an anti-Soviet regime there. How wrong I would turn out to be.

09 Dec 09

The Navy's Other Seals ... And Dolphins : NPR

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05 Dec 09

Georgia to the rescue... again | FP Passport

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A big chunk of them will also come from Georgia, a non-NATO member with an ulterior motive:

But the rest of the troops mentioned are
either already deployed, or coming from a country whose desperate,
loose cannon leader is pretty much discredited internationally. From a
military perspective, Georgia's contribution is welcome news. But from
a
political perspective, it represents more that country's desperation to
join NATO than a grand victory for Obama's new strategy.

According to the Washington Post, NATO officials are counting on at least 900 troops from Georgia. Grunstein thinks it might be as high as 3,300.

04 Dec 09

With Key Role, Gates Stands to Get Credit -- or Blame - WSJ.com

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President Barack Obama's new strategy for the flagging Afghan war is largely the handiwork of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who developed the idea of sending U.S. reinforcements and then helped persuade administration officials to support it.
"Everyone talks about Afghanistan is Obama's war, but it's really Gates's war now in a way that it never was before," said a military official with recent experience in Afghanistan who is supportive of Mr. Gates's strategy. "Gates has the commander he wants, the troops he wants, and the strategy he wants. He'll get a lot of credit if we win, and a lot of the blame if we don't."
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- Mr. Gates is a Republican with strong support on Capitol Hill
- Mr. Gates has been focused on Afghanistan for decades. During a stint as the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1980s, Mr. Gates helped oversee the covert U.S. effort to funnel weaponry and money to the Islamic militants battling the former Soviet Union.
- When the administration began reviewing its Afghan policy this fall, Mr. Gates flew to a Belgian airbase for a secret meeting with Gen. McChrystal, who told him he needed roughly 40,000 troops to reverse the Taliban's momentum.
- The defense chief was initially uneasy with Gen. McChrystal's large troop request because he believed the size of the Soviet occupation force in Afghanistan in the 1980s had helped fuel the rebellion against the Russians, according to an official who regularly interacts with both men.
- Mr. Gates developed a compromise plan in an effort to bridge the gulf between Mr. Biden and Gen. McChrystal. Mr. Gates proposed that the U.S. send 30,000 of its own troops to Afghanistan to beat back the Taliban and sharply accelerate the training of the Afghan security forces.
- To maintain leverage on Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Mr. Gates also argued that the new troops should be deployed to Afghanistan for a limited period of time rather than for the kind of open-ended deployment sought by Gen. McChrystal, according to an official familiar with the deliberations.
- The proposal quickly won the backing of both Ms. Clinton and Adm. Mullen, the president's top military adviser. Roughly two weeks ago, Mr. Obama began to signal to participants in the review that it was his preferred course as well, according to people familiar with the matter.

01 Dec 09

What Obama Gained In Asia - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

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13 Nov 09

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12 Nov 09

Who Brought Down the Berlin Wall? - By Christian Caryl | Foreign Policy

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No. 1: It was Ronald Reagan.
No. 2: It was inevitable.
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- No. 3: It was the CIA.
- No. 4: It was the KGB.
- No. 5: It was all about
  economics.

Why is Richard Holbrooke going to Russia? (Updated) | The Cable

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State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told The Cable that Holbrooke is going to Russia "for meetings with his special representative counterpart and to discuss U.S.-Russia cooperation regarding Afghanistan," but said he couldn't be more specific.

29 Oct 09

While Aide Advised McCain, His Firm Lobbied for Georgia - washingtonpost.com

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Sen. John McCain's top foreign policy adviser prepped his boss for an April 17 phone call with the president of Georgia and then helped the presumptive Republican presidential nominee prepare a strong statement of support for the fledgling republic.
The day of the call, a lobbying firm partly owned by the adviser, Randy Scheunemann, signed a $200,000 contract to continue providing strategic advice to the Georgian government in Washington.
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- The McCain campaign said Georgia's lobbying contract with Orion Strategies had no bearing on the candidate's decision to speak with President Mikheil Saakashvili and did not influence his statement. "The Embassy of Georgia requested the call," said campaign spokesman Brian Rogers.
- At the time of McCain's call, Scheunemann had formally ceased his own lobbying work for Georgia, according to federal disclosure reports. But he was still part of Orion Strategies, which had only two lobbyists, himself and Mike Mitchell.

26 Oct 09

Foreign Policy: Inside the Ivory Tower

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1,743 scholars
Most revealing? Nearly 40 percent of respondents reported that these scholars have “no impact” on foreign policy or even the public discourse about it. Indeed, the only academics judged less effectual in the policy realm were historians.
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- In 2006, 48 percent of respondents reported that contemporary case studies conducted by academics were “very useful” to policymakers, but by 2008 only 39 percent of respondents thought policymakers would find this work useful.
- It’s a largely liberal internationalist agenda, one that names the most important foreign-policy priorities facing the United States as: global climate change (37 percent), the war in Iraq (35 percent), global reliance on oil (34 percent), armed conflict in the Middle East (32 percent), and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (27 percent). A large majority of the experts favor increases in foreign aid (85 percent), free trade agreements (70 percent), and increased spending on the global aids epidemic (59 percent). Although these scholars oppose using military force against Iran even as it allegedly pursues a nuclear weapons program, a clear majority favors humanitarian intervention in Sudan if conducted under the aegis of an international institution such as nato or the United Nations. (It’s worth noting that had the survey been sent in December, after the global economic collapse, financial issues likely would have secured a higher spot.)
- So, which countries pose the greatest threat to the U.S. position today? Forty-three percent of respondents agreed that China’s growing military power could threaten international stability. In fact, specialists predict that the strategic importance of East Asia generally will continue to grow. Although only 30 percent see the region as the one of greatest concern for the United States today (up from 19 percent in 2006), 68 percent reported it would be the region of greatest strategic importance in 20 years.
- According to the scholars in this year’s survey, a U.S. commitment to take the lead on international climate treaties is long overdue. Although the election of President Obama—who has described the global climate change threat as “a matter of urgency”—promises movement on U.S. environmental policy, it might not be nearly high enough on Obama’s to-do list for these experts. Not only do academics consider the environment to be the greatest threat we face today, they predict it will be an even more important foreign-policy challenge for the United States in 10 years.

21 Oct 09

New U.N. report: Opium's not just an Afghan problem | The AfPak Channel

But too few take note of the fact that the vast majority of
profits are actually earned outside
Afghanistan.
The report notes, for example, that Afghan farmers earn an
estimated $1 billion annually off the country's 7,000 metric ton opium crop.
Sounds like a lot, right? Not really: By the time they reach their final
destinations, global sales of Afghan opiates are now believed to top $58
billion, according to the report. "We take three percent of the revenue,"
President Karzai is quoted as saying, "and 100 percent of the blame."
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- I'm not letting the Afghan leader off the hook for his
  reluctance to investigate corruption claims within his government and his own
  family.
- About 40 percent
  of the opiates produced in Afghanistan get smuggled out through Pakistan, now
  designated a major trafficking country by the U.S. government, and about one third
  passes into Iran, which consumes 42 percent of the world's opium. The rest appears
  to leave through Central Asian states and possibly India, the report says.
- The U.N. reports the problem is heading north as well: "The
  perfect storm of drugs, crime and insurgency that has swirled around the
  Afghanistan/Pakistan border for years, is heading for Central Asia," the report
  says.
- "The Afghan drug economy generates
  several hundred million dollars per year into evil hands -- some with black
  turbans, others with white collars."
- Recent reports by the Washington Post and the New York Times indicate that the
  military and intelligence community continue to label the money flowing to
  insurgents and extremist groups in the AfPak region as "donations." I'm not
  suggesting the Taliban and al Qaeda get no money from ideological sympathizers,
  but it's clear from my research that some of these funds represent balance of
  payments for drugs shipments and other smuggled commodities.
- Additionally, large sums of money flow through informal money transfer networks
  (in Southwest Asia and the Middle East it's called Hawala, in Latin America,
  the Black Market Peso Exchange).
- In the eight years since the war began in Afghanistan, there
  has been far too little effort to regulate commerce and informal money flows in
  the region. But doing so will be critical, not just to reducing crime, but also
  to widening the tax base for Afghanistan and Pakistan, in order to make both
  countries less dependent on aid.
- 75 percent of the heroin sold
  in the United States and Canada could now be coming from Afghanistan
- This claim is
  backed up by recent media
  reports from Canada, where the Mounties say as much as 60 percent of the
  dope they are seizing is Afghan in origin. But a spokeswoman for the U.S. Drug
  Enforcement Agency says that less than 5 percent by weight of the heroin found on U.S. streets
  is of Southwest Asian origin. More investigation is probably needed.
- European countries and Russia, which have contributed
  considerably less to the cause of stemming the flow of narcotics from
  Afghanistan, consume a stunning 47 percent of the heroin produced globally
- The number of people who die
  from heroin overdoses in NATO nations is five times higher than the number
  of NATO soldiers killed since military operations began in 2001.
- More Russians die every year
  from drug overdoses (an estimated 30,000-40,000 annually) than the total
  number of Soviet soldiers who died during their seven-year occupation of
  Afghanistan.

19 Oct 09

Supply and Debate | Foreign Policy

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politics oil energy economy china russia india development US statistics reference peak oil

Data from the International Energy
Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Department show that the global flow of crude
oil peaked in 2005 and is now sliding steadily. The world will never run out of
oil altogether, but oil's flow is in decline.
There might still be ample
reserves left in the ground when production falls to half of today's use. But
these remaining reserves are either very low-quality heavy oil, which is
difficult to process, or tainted with toxic elements that make them hard to
refine into usable petroleum products.
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- Until the
  world's oil producers allow third-party audits of the flow rates of the world's
  largest oil fields, which they have so far been reluctant to do, it is
  impossible to know just how dire a situation we are in. I believe that such an
  audit would prove peak oil, but either way it is certainly irresponsible to
  make optimistic projections without hard data.
- Yergin's company, ihs Cambridge
  Energy Research Associates, as well as the iea and my own group, Global Energy
  Systems (GES), have analyzed the world's giant oil fields, and all have drawn
  approximately the same conclusion: Those fields that provide today's production
  will, in 20 years, have lost production equivalent to five times the current
  production of Saudi Arabia.
- There is a very strong connection
  between access to oil and political, economic, and military strength. Of the
  world's four centers of power, three -- China, the European Union, and the United
  States -- are heavily dependent on imported oil. Only Russia is self-sufficient in
  supply. This, combined with China's ever-expanding energy needs, will provide
  the primary sources of conflict in Yergin's "new world of oil."
- He does suggest that my article is unaware of the growth of Chinese
  demand. I find this puzzling, as I write: "But now, the growth is in China,
  India, other emerging markets, and the Middle East. Between 2000 and 2007 ...
  [almost] 85 percent of that growth [in world oil demand] was in emerging
  markets." As he does observe, China now imports more than half of its oil, and
  that share will increase. But one thing that he does not address is why China's
  domestic oil production has increased 10 percent since 2004.

18 Oct 09

Adlai Stevenson confronts the USSR at the United Nations • videosift.com

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15 Oct 09

Matthew Yglesias » Rep. Shadegg Warns of “Soviet-Style Gulag Health Care”

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04 Oct 09

Leslie H. Gelb: Obama’s Befuddling Afghan Policy - WSJ.com

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Even though I strongly believe that the United States does not have vital interests in Afghanistan, I also believe that Mr. Obama can't simply walk away from the war. A lot of Democrats don't seem to fathom this.
For their part, Republicans and others who advocate an open-ended U.S. commitment can't simply ignore the fact that political time is running out at home. It would be utterly irresponsible of them to simply shake their fingers at the Democrats and wait for them to fail in Afghanistan.
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- the Obama administration can craft a strategy along the following lines:
- • Surge two additional combat brigades, or roughly 10,000 troops, to lift the U.S. total to about 78,000 from 68,000.
- • Deploy an additional 5,000 to 10,000 troops strictly for the purpose of training and supporting Afghan police and armed forces, and embed U.S. advisers with heavy intelligence backup. As important as increasing troop numbers is changing the American attitude toward the war. Our armed forces can't continue to treat most problems as American problems, and they must begin to turn over real authority to the Afghans.
- • Provide support to leaders in Kabul and tribal leaders around the country who will oppose the Taliban and fight for their independence.
- • Put money on the table to divide Taliban from Taliban, and Taliban from al Qaeda. We know many of them respond to financial—as well as security—inducements.
- • Build alliances to contain the Taliban and other regional extremists. Focus on India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, China, and yes, even Iran, which cooperated with Washington at the outset of the Afghan war. These states share common interests with America in combating al Qaeda-like terrorism and the drug trade.
- • Set up tough and credible deterrence capabilities. It's particularly critical to retain special operations forces in Afghanistan with the ability to fire from drones and perform other operations. Capabilities for missile and air attacks launched from beyond Afghanistan need to be honed as well. Token attacks won't be enough.
- Putting this strategy and the attendant capabilities in place would take two to three years

02 Oct 09

TED Talk: Mapping the future countries of the world • videosift.com

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28 Sep 09

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

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In Iraq, Obama postponed any rapid withdrawal, keeping troops there as long as the Bush administration pledged. While ending torture, Obama has retained key provisions for extraordinary rendition, and has recently scored real successes in the terror war. Last week revealed the exposure of what looks like the first real al Qaeda plot within America, busted by the FBI and unaccompanied by any Obama grandstanding or fear-mongering. Several key Qaeda leaders have been taken out by drones in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Obama has sent additional troops to Afghanistan and ordered up a wholesale review of strategy from one of Cheney's favorite generals, Stanley McChrystal. For the first time in two decades, Israel does not have carte blanche from the White House to do whatever it wants on the West Bank.
The Bush-style warnings are instead given by Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, further underlining the fact that this is a global problem, not just America's.
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- Medvedev expresses the view - never uttered by a Russian leader before - that sanctions against Iran may be inevitable.
- being the first president of the US to preside over a resolution to reiterate the importance of nuclear non-proliferation.
- The vote is unanimous.
- And this time, the story line is not America-vs-Iran, but the world versus a deceptive dictator, clinging to power via a coup.
- proves that Tehran is a dishonest negotiator

27 Sep 09

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

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And so you see the Obama mojo again. Look at the moves of the last month. He scraps the missile defense in Eastern Europe, pleasing Russia, and moves the focus of defense to the Mediterranean, pleasing Israel.
He pwns Ahmadinejad at the UN by being the first president of the US to preside over the resolution to enforce nuclear non-proliferation.
He corrals the rhetorical support of the developing world, isolating Tehran still further. He hangs back a little and allows Brown and Sarkozy to do the heavy hitting on NoKo and Iran this past week, again revealing that the desire to curtail Ahmadinejad's nukes is not only an American project.
And then, this morning ... kapow!

He busts Ahmadinejad in a air-tight case that focuses on active Iranian deception. All this, of course, may still not be enough. Putin's position remains opaque; and China is still not on the full wagon.
If you add to the mix the critical factor of the Green Revolution, then the West's position vis-a-vis Iran has improved immensely in the last eight months. And if you believe that Obama's Cairo speech was at least a positive factor in helping bring that about - then the promise of the Obama era in American foreign policy begins to take shape.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

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which means our Wonderful and
Gracious Dear Leader knew about this second facility and STILL felt the
need to reach out to the Iranians as if they were rational actors who
could be trusted along with canceling the missle defense site site in
Europe?
Obama has maneuvered these past few months to isolate Iran without seeming to bully or dominate. Because of that, he has a decent chance of getting real sanctions approved by Russia and maybe even China. But this delicate piece of diplomacy and public relations infuriates the unchastened neocon right. They like their foreign policy crude and simplistic and ... well, Cheneyesque.
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- Obama is more the conservative than they will ever be.

The Week Magazine - News reviews and opinion, arts, entertainment & political cartoons

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The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

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