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16 Dec 09

Calculated Terror, by Aaron Mannes and V.S. Subrahmanian | Foreign Policy

www.foreignpolicy.com/...calculated_terror - Preview

hezbullah politics israel lebanon palestine war military prediction computing statistics reference

SOMA
rules have also been extracted on the behavior of other Middle Eastern groups. Hamas,
for example, is twice as likely to commit kidnappings during periods of
conflict with other Palestinian organizations (the probability increases from
approximately 33 percent to 67 percent). If another round of Fatah-Hamas fighting erupts in the
West Bank, this may present a new challenge for Israeli security. While the
rules had not been extracted in 2006, it is worth noting that the Israeli soldier
Galid Shalit was kidnapped as the conflict between Hamas and Fatah expanded
after the 2006 Palestinian elections.
Models
require data, and limitations of that data can limit the accuracy of a system
such as SOMA. For the analysis of Hezbollah (and several other groups) SOMA
used the Minorities at Risk
Organization Behavior (MAROB) data set created at the University of
Maryland's Center for International Development and Conflict Management. MAROB
identifies factors that motivate members of ethnic minorities to form activist
organizations and move from conventional politics to terrorism. MAROB has
systematically collected information on more than 150 variables from over 100
organizations across the Middle East during the last several decades. Hezbollah
is one of the organizations profiled; the data collected covers Hezbollah from
its 1982 founding through 2004.
4 more annotations...
- The test
  for any model is whether or not its predictions hold. During Israel's Operation
  Cast Lead against Hamas in Gaza, there was concern that Hezbollah would
  initiate a second front to aid its ally. But Hezbollah offered only rhetorical
  support to Hamas. During the Gaza operation, a few rockets were fired from
  Lebanon into Israel and Hezbollah quickly and credibly
  denied responsibility. With an election later in the year, Hezbollah
  determined that it could not risk renewed violence with Israel -- particularly
  in the wake of the 2006 war, which many Lebanese felt was brought on by
  Hezbollah and that left much of south Lebanon in ruin.
- However,
  this balancing act is becoming more difficult to maintain, as these two aspects
  of Hezbollah are coming into increasing conflict. The 2006 war inflicted
  massive costs on the Lebanese people, which has made them less likely to
  tolerate Hezbollah's foreign adventurism. Earlier in October an explosion at a
  private home revealed the presence of a Hezbollah arms cache (Hezbollah
  disputes this). This incident reminded the Lebanese that Hezbollah remains
  capable of launching another round of fighting with Israel, and raised the
  specter of the conflict being sparked by accident. The recent Israeli seizure
  of a cargo ship carrying nearly 400 tons of weapons apparently intended for
  Hezbollah raised further concerns that Lebanon could again become a battlefield
  between foreign powers. If one appreciates that Lebanese popular opinion exerts
  a strong influence on Hezbollah's actions, it should be clearer that another
  Israel-Hezbollah war remains unlikely.
- SOMA's
  analysis of Hezbollah's behavior serves both analysts and policymakers by
  making a specific prediction about the group's likely actions, and also by
  highlighting this important underlying dynamic.
- it may become possible to make specific predictions about
  how, when, and under what circumstances regional changes will occur.

10 Dec 09

New poll finds Israelis more positive on Obama | The Cable

thecable.foreignpolicy.com/...sraelis_more_positive_on_obama - Preview

obama israel politics palestine statistics reference approvalratings

Israelis aren't nearly as
unsupportive of President Obama and America's role in the Middle East peace
process as most news reports would have you believe, according to a new survey
being released today by the New America Foundation. (Raw poll results here, analysis here.)
52 percent of the 1,000 Israelis
surveyed thought Obama's election would be good for the problems facing
the world and 42 percent responded that they think he supports Israel.
1 more annotations...
- That's
  significantly higher than the number most often cited, that just 4 percent of
  Israelis view Obama's policies as "pro-Israel," a reference to an
  August poll conducted by the Jerusalem Post.

08 Dec 09

How Americans See The World - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/...w-americans-see-the-world.html - Preview

pakistan approvalrating US politics afghanistan CFR iran republicans democrats liberals conservatives israel palestine

Only 16% of the public has a favorable
view of Pakistan, our essential partner in the new AfPak strategy --
barely more than have a favorable view of Iran (11%) -- and unfavorable
views of Pakistan have gone from 39% to 68% since last year. Yikes.
And the partisan gap on Israel is interesting, if not new: in the
general public, 68% of Republicans and 43% of Democrats say that they
sympathize with Israel more than with the Palestinians. Among [Council on Foreign Relations]
experts, a solid 41% plurality say that they sympathize with both
Israel and the Palestinians equally.

26 Nov 09

Running the Table | Foreign Policy

www.foreignpolicy.com/...running_the_table - Preview

foreignpolicy US politics healthcare statistics reference palestine israel iran afghanistan bioterror waronterror pakistan obama

We need a surge in Afghanistan. It worked in Iraq!
Afghanistan is Obama's Vietnam!
11 more annotations...
- Afghanistan will turn into an al Qaeda safe haven unless more troops are sent!
- There's no reason for the war in Afghanistan. We should pull out now!
- Israel is trying to cooperate. We should put more pressure on the Palestinians!
- The Palestinians are trying to cooperate. We should put more pressure on Israel!
- Iran
  Diplomacy is failing. We need to bomb Iran before they can build nukes!
- There’s no proof Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons. What are we worried about?
- Health Care
  America has the best health care in the world!
- Every country in Europe has created a single-payer system!
- Bioterror: The risk of an accident from the U.S. bioterrorism research program is greater than the risk of a bioterror attack.
- Green China: There's a lot less than meets the eye to China's efforts to get emissions under control.
- Iran's Green Revolution: Mir Hossein Moussavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi have less influence over the movement than you think.

18 Nov 09

Sarah Palin is even crazier than I imagined | FP Passport

blog.foreignpolicy.com/...s_even_crazier_than_i_imagined - Preview

palin israel US conservatives republicans palestine settlements george h. w. bush politics

"I disagree with the Obama administration" on Israeli settlements, Palin told Barbara Walters. Fair enough. It sure seems like the administration's heavy focus on getting Benjamin Netanyahu to commit to a settlement freeze has backfired, making the Israeli prime minister more popular than ever and exposing the impotence of Palestinian leader Mamoud Abbas in the process.
"I believe that the Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expanded
upon, because that population of Israel is, is going to grow," she continued. "More and
more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and
months ahead. And I don't think that the Obama administration has any
right to tell Israel that the Jewish settlements cannot expand."
2 more annotations...
- The message written on the landscape is simple: Every day, the
  settlements expand. Every day, Israel grows more entangled in the West
  Bank. To a large degree, the Israeli and Palestinian publics have
  accepted the need for a two-state solution. But time, and the
  construction crews, are working against it. No one knows exactly where
  the point of no return is—when so many Israelis will have moved into so
  many homes beyond the pre-1967 border that there is no going back. But
  each passing day brings that tipping point nearer. If a solution is not
  achieved quickly, it might soon be out of reach.
- This is why, from their inception, successive American presidents of both parties have denounced this colonization of the West Bank, although rarely, such as when George H.W. Bush put real pressure on the Israelis by temporarily holding up loan guarantees, have they done more about it talk. Even George W. Bush, the bulk of whose Israel policy can be fairly summed up as "Let Ariel Sharon do what he wants," at least expressed his displeasure over the settlements every now and again.

17 Nov 09

Informed Comment: 20-Year-Old Letterhead points to Israeli Forgery in Francop Affair

www.juancole.com/...-old-letterhead-points-to.html - Preview

US media press iran israel politics arms hezbullah hamas palestine lebanon middleeast

The Israelis have been maintaining that a ship, the Francop, that their forces boarded near Cyprus originated in Iran and was bringing arms to Hizbullah and Hamas.
3 more annotations...
- Ministry of the Sipah [i.e. of soldier].
- The name of that ministry was changed 20 years ago, however, to the Ministry of Defense. One Iranian journalist opined, "So this begs the question of what the emblem of a nonexistent body was doing on the cargo?"

05 Nov 09

Who Voted For Hamas? - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/...who-voted-for-hamas.html - Preview

US politics gaza palestine youth statistics age demographics hamas

I think another issue here that’s rarely noted in these discussions is
that the median age in the Gaza Strip is 17.4 years. This is, in other
words, primarily a population of children we’re talking about. They
didn’t vote for anyone.

22 Oct 09

Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban: “Diametrically Opposed”? | Foreign Policy

www.foreignpolicy.com/..._taliban_diametrically_opposed - Preview

taliban al-qaeda US waronterror politics nationalism afghanistan pakistan terrorism jihad palestine

Mullah Omar's Afghan
Taliban and al-Qaeda's senior leaders have been issuing some very
mixed messages of late, and the online jihadi community is in an
uproar, with some calling these developments "the beginning of the end
of relations" between the two movements.
Afghan Taliban's
Quetta-based leadership has been emphasizing the "nationalist"
character of their movement
5 more annotations...
- sent several communications to
  Afghanistan's neighbors expressing an intent to establish positive
  international relations.
- recent messages from al-Qaeda have pointedly rejected the
  "national" model of revolutionary Islamism
- reiterated calls for
  jihad against Afghanistan's neighbors, especially Pakistan and China
- Mullah Omar
- the Taliban
  a "robust Islamic and nationalist movement," which "wants to maintain
  good and positive relations with all neighbors based on mutual respect."

25 Sep 09

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/...the-obama-gambit.html - Preview

obama neocons conservatives US republicans politics foreignpolicy style UN iran palestine israel israelpalestine israelpalestineus

Notice the neocon right's view of the rest of the fricking world: "assembled thugs, dictators, and hypocrites."
Against this, we have blameless America, always right, never wrong, and blameless Israel, always the victim, never the aggressor.