conflict - Robert Maguire on Diigo

01 Dec 09

Thailand’s former prime minister, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, recently ignited a furor when he proposed that the separatist campaign in his country’s Muslim-majority southern provinces might be solved politically, with a form of self-rule. Thailand’s ruling Democrat Party immediately called Chavalit’s remarks “traitorous.”
Armed mainly with machetes and kitchen knives, 106 attackers perished that day, 32 of them inside Pattani’s historic Krue-Ze mosque, where they had taken refuge. Five members of the Thai security forces were also killed.

18 Nov 09

China's middle class threatens US resource security by Tom Ricks | The Best Defense

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resources conflict climatechange china US politics Gen. Casey miitary dod energy middleclass economy economics

The nugget of his speech that really struck
me though, being a "natural
security" nerd, was when Casey said that the "middle class in China is
larger than the entire population of the United States; this will increase
pressure on resources." A few sentences later he listed this as a source of
future conflict.

11 Nov 09

Educate boys, or they'll go to war | FP Passport

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education youth statistics demographics middleeast africa youth bulge violence war conflict reference

A World Bank research
paper posted today finds that countries with a high proportion of young
males with low levels of secondary education are significantly more conflict-prone.
"youth bulges"
5 more annotations...
- Sub-Saharan Africa, as "the
  continent with the largest youth cohorts and the lowest levels of male secondary
  education, scoring on average nearly 30 percentage points lower than the world
  average."
- In Syria,
  for example, males 14 years old and younger make up nearly 20 percent of the
  population. Only 39.1 percent of secondary school-aged students are enrolled in
  school, making it the 101st lowest-ranking country of 135 surveyed. In the long run, Syria is facing
  declining oil production and rapid population growth - a recipe for violent
  unrest.
- The policy implications are clear. Programs that focus on
  primary education, like the U.N.'s Education
  for All and Millennium
  Development Goals
- must
  be more support for programs like the World Bank's own Secondary
  Education in Africa initiative.
- The total cost of a secondary education in Kenya is estimated at $6,865.
  A 2007 Oxfam report
  found that on average a "war, civil war, or insurgency shrinks an African economy
  by 15 percent," and conflict causes the continent to lose about $18 billion a
  year. You do the math.

05 Nov 09

The two big things with climate change (Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog)

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US politics drought climatechange statistics reference environment conflict migration

ARTICLE: Four-year drought pushes 23 million Africans to brink of starvation, By Tristan McConnell, London Times, October 22, 2009

The scary implication:

Drought is nothing new to this part of Africa, but what is different is the frequency with which it hits. The cycle of drought used to come around every ten years but now it is almost constant. Many attribute the changing patterns to climate change.

To me, the two big things with climate change are: 1) raised acidity of the world's oceans (hard to see a lot of the wildlife adapting fast enough on that one); and 2) the prolonged/higher frequency of droughts across my equatorial-centric Gap, which overwhelmingly imports grains now and faces the highest population growth rates in coming decades.

29 Oct 09

Global Warming Could Create a Legion of 'Climate Terrorists' : TreeHugger

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climate terrorism terrorism climatechange environment politics waronterror war conflict

One man who has made such a consideration is Dr. Greg Austin. The provocative piece he wrote for New Europe called Climate Terrorists: They Will Come is especially foreboding. Austin notes that 40% of the world lives in tropical areas, where even incremental rises in temperatures can have disastrous effects.
Developing nations comprise the vast majority of these tropical states, many of which have exploding populations, a growing youth bulge, and increasing problems with hunger and health.

28 Oct 09

Is a McDonalds-less Iceland now vulnerable to attack? | FP Passport

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iceland mcdonald's US conflict war friedman commerce peace trade economy economics

26 Oct 09

Climate change and warfare: Cool heads or heated conflicts? | The Economist

www.economist.com/...displaystory.cfm - Preview

agriculture climatechange US politics conflict war warfare production history trade technology industrial revolution

The chart shows the correlation between the number of conflicts and the average temperature during most of the second half of the millennium, the period for which the data are best. Until the mid-18th century, this correlation is continuously and significantly negative (the line remains close to the 95% confidence level, suggesting there is only one chance in 20 that it is an accidental, random effect). In other words, lower temperatures mean more wars. Then, suddenly, the negative correlation vanishes. The line goes into positive territory, but not enough to be statistically meaningful. The inverted correlation between temperature and conflict has therefore disappeared.
3 more annotations...
- They argue that the reason the relationship between warfare and cold vanishes in the mid-18th century is that this is the moment when the industrial revolution began
- These developments meant farmers could often produce reasonable yields during colder weather—and even when they could not, long-distance trade provided a buffer against crop failure. Meanwhile, the growth of cities and non-agricultural occupations meant there was money to buy such traded crops.
- The lesson, rather, is that the way to minimise the likelihood of climate-induced conflict in the future is to continue the process of crop improvement (for example, by taking advantage of the potential of genetic engineering) so that heat- and drought-tolerant varieties are available; to make farmers aware of these new crops and encourage their use; and to promote free trade and non-agricultural economic development. That way people will have no cause to fight, and tyrants no excuse to stir them up.

02 Oct 09

TED Talk: Mapping the future countries of the world • videosift.com

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maps politics china middleeast kurds russia statistics reference history oil war conflict energy

25 Sep 09

What Divides America? - Pew Research Center

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race immigration racism conflict society US statistics reference immigrants rich poor politics

19 Sep 09

Top military minds mull climate change, energy efficiency, new fuels and national security - St. Petersburg Times

www.tampabay.com/...1037130 - Preview

military pentagon energy fuel environment conflict climatechange technology US politics oil algae renewables terrorism security solar vice admiral mcginn

retired Sen. John Warner
"National Security and the Threat of Climate Change"
33 more annotations...
- security andclimate.cna.org
- "Powering America's Defense: Energy and the Risk to National Security"
- www.PoweringAmericas Defense.org
- After carefully considering the threat of climate change and America's current energy consumption to our national security, the CNA Military Advisory Board finds the trends and warnings are clear. Our sobering conclusion is that climate change and the U.S. energy posture constitute a serious and urgent threat to national security — militarily, diplomatically and economically.
- Rather, it is a threat multiplier that magnifies instability in the most volatile places in the world and increases a variety of threats across the board.
- This will inevitably create a growing need for U.S. military intervention with missions ranging from humanitarian assistance, to peacekeeping, to the need to deal with dangerous conflicts over resources in regions critical to U.S. national security. The conditions created by climate change will vary across the globe and affect different locations, including in our own nation, in a variety of ways: drought, flood, extreme weather events, crop failure, acidic oceans, fishery collapse, starvation and disease
- These conditions will lead to conflict over scarce resources and cause mass migration by people in search of security and the essentials of life, creating sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale and at a frequency far beyond those we see today.
- This, in turn, will create great social and political instability where demands for basic human needs exceed the capacity of governments to cope. As fragile states become failed states, desperation, hopelessness and a vacuum of governing power create a dangerous breeding ground for extremists and terrorism.
- When populations get more desperate, the likelihood of military conflicts goes up, and the more instability, the more likely and greater the pressure to use our military. Climate-driven crises are already happening. Darfur and Somalia are present-day examples of instability and failing states. In South Asia and in the Middle East, very densely populated regions with long-standing tensions, climate change will create greatly increased competition, and perhaps regional conflict, over traditional supplies of fresh water.
  
  As the Himalayan glaciers recede, nations such as China, India and Pakistan will have to deal with internal and external unrest due to a much less reliable source of water to meet the needs of growing populations. There already exists a rapidly increasing competition for diminishing supplies of water for agriculture and basic human needs in the Middle East.
- the CNA Military Advisory Board concluded that America's approach to energy has placed the nation in a dangerous and untenable position.
- Militarily, our inefficient use and overreliance on oil adds significantly to the great risks already assumed by our troops.
- reduces combat effectiveness
- exacts a huge price tag in dollars and lives
- Fuel convoys can stretch over great distances, traversing hotly contested territory and become attractive targets for enemy forces. Ensuring convoy safety and fuel delivery requires a tremendous diversion of combat force. As in-theater energy demand increases, more assets must be diverted to protect fuel convoys rather than to directly engage enemy combatants.
- Consider the recent hijacking of fuel trucks by the Taliban in Afghanistan and the ensuing civilian deaths, greatly damaging the political goals that are central to the NATO and coalition mission.
- Ensuring the flow of that oil stretches our military thin — the men and women already fighting wars on two fronts. We rely on our armed forces to protect sea lanes and maintain a continuous high level of forward presence to ensure we can fill up our cars and trucks.
- USS Cole
- the convergence of oil, instability, terrorism
- Even accounting for the recent discovery of deep sea oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico, America controls only 3 percent of the world's oil supply while we consume 25 percent of the oil produced every year.
- Economically
- We are heavily dependent on a global petroleum market that is highly volatile.
- In 2008, we sent $386 billion overseas to pay for oil
- In the last year alone, the per-barrel price of oil climbed as high as $140 and dropped as low as $40.
- Just a $10 change in the per-barrel cost of oil translates to a $2 billion increase in the Pentagon's energy costs.
- While coal and natural gas resources may be plentiful, they are increasingly difficult to access, and have associated impacts that are expensive.
- As the largest single user of energy in the country, the Department of Defense can play a leadership role.
- "America, we gave you the Hummer when oil was cheap; now we're taking it back!"
- Rather, they are on the verge of a significant production scale-up, using algal oil to be sent to existing refineries, which currently process only crude oil. This is significant. It means that a whole new fuel derived from algae could use the existing oil processing infrastructure.
- In Iraq and Afghanistan, spray foam insulation on tents has cut the need for diesel generator sets used for air conditioning by as much as 60 percent. Portable solar panels are increasingly being used to recharge the multitude of batteries our soldiers and Marines rely on for mission electronics.
- fuel cells to power the electronics in combat vehicles and forward operating bases
- Remember that less than 10 years ago the iPod didn't exist and 20 years ago, few folks had cell phones, satellite radio or GPS devices.
- Most importantly, we need the full awareness, commitment and participation by all Americans, as citizens and as consumers, to recognize the need for change and to help make it happen now.
- CNA is a not-for-profit research organization which serves the public interest by providing in-depth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders choose the best course of action in setting policy and managing operations. CNA's Military Advisory Board (MAB) consists of 12 two-, three- and four-star retired admirals and generals, representing all four services of American armed forces.

14 Sep 09

Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation | Video on TED.com

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democracy society conflict conflictresolution government economy economics politics ted.com paul collier

24 Aug 09

NA T IO N A L IN TELLIGENC E C O U N C IL

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foreignpolicy reference global trends 2025 world statistics politics energy conflict projections intelligence china india economy internationalaffairs

World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030
experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either

cropland or freshwater scarce
12 more annotations...
- 36 countries, with about
  
  1.4 billion people
- particularly
  
  water scarcity and loss of agricultural production
- new energy
  
  technologies probably will not be commercially viable and widespread by 2025
- Despite what are seen as long odds now, we cannot rule out the possibility of an energy
  
  transition by 2025 that would avoid the costs of an energy infrastructure overhaul. The greatest
  
  possibility for a relatively quick and inexpensive transition during the period comes from better
  
  renewable generation sources (photovoltaic and wind) and improvements in battery technology.
  
  With many of these technologies, the infrastructure cost hurdle for individual projects would be
  
  lower, enabling many small economic actors to develop their own energy transformation projects
  
  that directly serve their interests—e.g., stationary fuel cells powering homes and offices,
  
  recharging plug-in hybrid autos, and selling energy back to the grid. Also, energy conversion
  
  schemes—such as plans to generate hydrogen for automotive fuel cells from electricity in the
  
  homeowner’s garage—could avoid the need to develop complex hydrogen transportation
  
  infrastructure
- Economic opportunities for youth and greater political pluralism probably would dissuade some
  
  from joining terrorists’ ranks, but others—motivated by a variety of factors, such as a desire for
  
  revenge or to become “martyrs”—will continue to turn to violence to pursue their objective
- Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long-
  
  established groups—that inherit organizational structures, command and control processes, and
  
  training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks—and newly emergent collections
  
  of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized.
- In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth
  
  bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and
  
  Yemen—the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction
- even actions short of war will have
  
  important geopolitical consequences
- China’s and India’s development of blue-water
  
  naval capabilities
- Existing multilateral institutions—which are large and cumbersome and were designed for a
  
  different geopolitical order—will have difficulty adapting quickly to undertake new missions,
  
  accommodate changing memberships, and augment their resources.
- Establishment of such quasi-blocs would have
  
  implications for the ability to achieve future global World Trade Organization (WTO)
  
  agreements. Regional clusters could compete in setting trans-regional product standards for
  
  information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, intellectual property rights, and other
  
  aspects of the “new economy.” On the other hand, an absence of regional cooperation in Asia
  
  could help spur competition among China, India, and Japan over resources such as energy
- No one political identity is likely to be dominant in
  
  most societies by 2025. Religion-based networks may be quintessential issue networks and
  
  overall may play a more powerful role on many transnational issues such as the environment and
  
  inequalities than secular groupings