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20 Dec 09
Print The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran That the White House Doesn't Want You to Know
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But it wasn't her sister, it was a senior Iranian diplomat. To protect him from reprisals from the Iranian government, she doesn't want to name him, but she describes him as a cultured man in his fifties with salt-and-pepper hair. Since early spring, they had been meeting secretly in a small conference room at the UN.
"Are you all right?" he asked.
Yes, she said, she was fine.
The attack was a terrible tragedy, he said, doubtless the work of Al Qaeda.
"I hope that we can still work together," he said.
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16 Dec 09
Calculated Terror, by Aaron Mannes and V.S. Subrahmanian | Foreign Policy
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SOMA
rules have also been extracted on the behavior of other Middle Eastern groups. Hamas,
for example, is twice as likely to commit kidnappings during periods of
conflict with other Palestinian organizations (the probability increases from
approximately 33 percent to 67 percent). If another round of Fatah-Hamas fighting erupts in the
West Bank, this may present a new challenge for Israeli security. While the
rules had not been extracted in 2006, it is worth noting that the Israeli soldier
Galid Shalit was kidnapped as the conflict between Hamas and Fatah expanded
after the 2006 Palestinian elections. -
Models
require data, and limitations of that data can limit the accuracy of a system
such as SOMA. For the analysis of Hezbollah (and several other groups) SOMA
used the Minorities at Risk
Organization Behavior (MAROB) data set created at the University of
Maryland's Center for International Development and Conflict Management. MAROB
identifies factors that motivate members of ethnic minorities to form activist
organizations and move from conventional politics to terrorism. MAROB has
systematically collected information on more than 150 variables from over 100
organizations across the Middle East during the last several decades. Hezbollah
is one of the organizations profiled; the data collected covers Hezbollah from
its 1982 founding through 2004. - 4 more annotations...
Can We Eliminate Violent Conflict? | The Progressive Realist
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BOLTON: He says we have to acknowledge the hard truth we will not eradicate violent conflict in our lifetimes. Well, no kidding. You know, homo sapiens are hard-wired for violent conflict, and we’re not going to eliminate violent conflict until homo sapiens ceases to exist as a separate species. And the whole notion you could even think about eliminating it not just in our lifetime but soon thereafter I think reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature.
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For comparison’s sake, note that homo sapiens are hard-wired to use stone spears to hunt and kill grazing animals for food. And yet, hunting grazing animals has become a pretty marginal phenomenon in human existence.
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10 Dec 09
The Obama Doctrine and the Nobel Prize | The Progressive Realist
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Obama's Nobel acceptance speech -- essentially a second escalation speech -- is perhaps the most articulate expression of The Obama Doctrine we've seen yet. It was a lengthy defense of American military intervention from World War II to Desert Storm, and a forceful justification of the escalation of troop levels in Afghanistan. It was a stirring defense of human rights, and an indictment of violence and extremism. Obama at once dismissed the idea of a military solution for problems of hunger and disease, while justifying military intervention on humanitarian grounds. He venerated Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King Jr., while asserting that "as a head of state sworn to protect and defend my nation, I cannot be guided by their examples alone." Obama conceded that "war itself is never glorious," but nevertheless argued that "the instruments of war do have a role to play in preserving the peace." The president again repudiated the use of torture and advocated for engagement with repressive regimes, citing Iran, Burma, and North Korea by name. While "engagement with repressive regimes lacks the satisfying purity of indignation," Obama said, "the promotion of human rights cannot be about exhortation alone."
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It was an unapologetic assertion of American exceptionalism, all while tying that exceptionalism to actual American behavior.
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09 Dec 09
On Funding Wars - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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Second World War
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sacrifice
for their country - 5 more annotations...
03 Dec 09
Matthew Yglesias » The Think Tank Arm of the Military-Industrial Complex
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the observation that many of the think tank experts brought on to television or op-ed pages to opine about the merits of an Afghan surge were in fact part of the team that designed the surge.
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Some think tanks do not disclose donor names (but if you look at the name of endowed chairs for scholars, you can figure out who is paying some of the bills). Big defense contractors — Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing — also contribute to many of the defense-oriented think tanks, although getting specific amounts is tricky
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01 Dec 09
PolitiFact | Krugman says Bush was first president to lead country into war and cut taxes
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"This is a lot of money," liberal New York Times columnist Paul Krugman said on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos on Nov. 30, 2009. "And the point is, we should have been paying for these wars to begin with, right from the beginning. I mean, this was, if you want to talk firsts for Bush, this was the first time in American history that a president took us into a war and cut taxes."
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Generally, we found, taxes and wars have followed a fairly predictable pattern: taxes rise during wartime and then come back down in the years afterward.
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Our Uni-Polar Moment - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
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Other countries, not merely in western europe, have relied upon US
protection so heavily that they are now largely incapable of making
large-scale interventions themselves. They need the Americans. One
consequence of this is that when the Americans actually ask for help
there is not much their allies can usefully offer. This strengthens the
American view that the US is having to shoulder too much of the burden
itself. There's something to this.
Lost nuclear bomb found - PPRuNe Forums
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An estimated 50 nuclear warheads, most of them from the former Soviet Union, still lie on the bottom of the world's oceans, according to the environmental group Greenpeace.
21 Nov 09
The greed of the generals (II): two questions | The Best Defense
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Also,
another friend points out that one of the dangers of this whole
"mentoring" this is that if you are not careful, you wind up bringing
in people who simply reinforce existing prejudices, instead of
challenging them. For example, just how well mentored was Gen. Tommy R.
Franks in his mishandling of Afghanistan in 2001-02 and then in his
bungled invasion of Iraq in 2003? (And while we're on the subject of
money, who remembers that Franks charged a group $100,000 to help them raise money for wounded vets-and that it later turned out that the group only delivered 25 percent of its funds to its supposed beneficiaries?) WWGMD?
17 Nov 09
Matthew Yglesias » Criminals and Warriors
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but if you have to put the whole thing in either the “crime” box or the “war” box, there’s a pretty strong case for erring on the side of crime.
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In political terms, the right likes the war idea because it involves taking terrorism more “seriously.” But in doing so, you partake of way too much of the terrorists’ narrative about themselves. It’s their conceit, after all, that blowing up a bomb in a train station and killing a few hundred random commuters is an act of war. And war is a socially sanctioned form of activity, generally held to be a legally and morally acceptable framework in which to kill people.
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Educate boys, or they'll go to war | FP Passport
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A World Bank research
paper posted today finds that countries with a high proportion of young
males with low levels of secondary education are significantly more conflict-prone. -
"youth bulges"
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02 Nov 09
David Ignatius - David Ignatius on mixing hard and soft tactics in Afghanistan - washingtonpost.com
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Hikmatullah, a tall Pashtun farmer dressed in turban and white cloak, looks slightly bewildered as a U.S. Army officer offers him tea and bread and questions him about what he wants from life.
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Can these pleasant, tea-drinking American soldiers really be the same people who are assaulting Taliban fighters in this region of eastern Afghanistan?
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29 Oct 09
Global Warming Could Create a Legion of 'Climate Terrorists' : TreeHugger
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One man who has made such a consideration is Dr. Greg Austin. The provocative piece he wrote for New Europe called Climate Terrorists: They Will Come is especially foreboding. Austin notes that 40% of the world lives in tropical areas, where even incremental rises in temperatures can have disastrous effects.
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Developing nations comprise the vast majority of these tropical states, many of which have exploding populations, a growing youth bulge, and increasing problems with hunger and health.
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