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Irie o8o

Irie o8o's Public Library

02 Nov 09

Trend

  • And when price makes an attempt at a higher high at 1401 and volume isn't there, that again becomes significant because of what has become before and provides the "classic" double-top price-volume divergence setup for the short. Without the context, none of this matters, and volume is little more than traders going about their business. With the context, it becomes a high-probability short trade.
  • The short takes you all the way to support at 1950, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The long entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge (one can enter at the apex of the hinge, but this occurred just before the close; of course, this may not trouble some people )
24 Oct 09

Ask Any Wyckoff-Related Question - Page 24

  • Drawing demand/supply lines in hindsight is difficult unless one reads the chart from left to right. But difficult or not, there isn't a great deal of point to going back any farther than one needs to. One draws demand lines in order to see where demand is entering the market and propelling a continuation. Therefore, they tend to be tight. But if one is using them to make trade decisions, he will likely find it necessary to include other information, such as how price respects the trendline, or whether or not price holds above the last swing low, or how price reacts to the last support level. Breaking a demand line means little in and of itself other than that momentum has hit a pothole of some sort. They are perhaps most useful when price departs from the trendline, serving to provide an early warning of a change in momentum that might break that trendline, but also serving to remind the trader that the world hasn't come to an end just because momentum has taken what might be no more than a temporary pause.

Ask Any Wyckoff-Related Question - Page 24

"First, locate the trading ranges as well as the important swing points, any or all of which may provide support and resistance in real time. The last important trading range which might affect the activity on this chart was formed the third week of September, from 52 to 76, more or less. The midpoint of this range would be 64 (note how price spends quite a lot of time hovering around this level). The last important swing high that is within the range covered by your chart was at the end of September, at 66 (specifically, 65.75). And if you have any doubts in real time as to whether or not this is really resistance, just watch how price behaves as it moves thru it.

"

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setups wyckoff hinge spboards

  • First, locate the trading ranges as well as the important swing points, any or all of which may provide support and resistance in real time. The last important trading range which might affect the activity on this chart was formed the third week of September, from 52 to 76, more or less. The midpoint of this range would be 64 (note how price spends quite a lot of time hovering around this level). The last important swing high that is within the range covered by your chart was at the end of September, at 66 (specifically, 65.75). And if you have any doubts in real time as to whether or not this is really resistance, just watch how price behaves as it moves thru it.

  • Now back off and divert your attention from specific bars. Look instead at how price is moving. Price makes a higher low after the day's high, then a lower high thereafter. This action should prompt you to think "hinge" in real time and look at what's happening with the volume. If this confirms what you suspect, and it does, then watch what happens as price reaches equilibrium (which, you'll note, is the same midpoint as that of the trading range referred to above). Here there is a test of selling interest accompanied by higher volume. This is usual. But the selling interest isn't there (price doesn't fall). This bodes well for the upside, but not yet. Traders piddle around for half an hour. But eventually price breaks out to the upside (the blue arrow), though few would recognize this as a breakout since it occurs before the more obvious resistance at 66 and since the volume is so low (volume in fact remains low until the more obvious resistance at 66 is penetrated, though even then the volume doesn't come in until after resistance is penetrated). The hinge, therefore, is your springboard. The retracement to 66 after the breakout is what might be called a Last Chance Springboard.
22 Aug 09

The Evolution of Market Profile Theory - Page 7

  • Here we should note one basic market profile concept/face that flies in the face of conventional wisdom - up on big volume is not as bullish as up on small volume. When there are no sellers it is easy for price to move up and move up on small volume. Trade is very imbalanced and that imbalance is what drives price - imblance, not total volume.


    If you look at day bars of almost any liquid instrument you will notice that the highest volume days are the reversal days and that is because they are days when a strong force in one direction ran into opposing activity. It is a day when both the longer term/commercial sellers were active and so were the buyers, hence the high volume. Opposing activity slows price movement and increases volume


    We teach that the nite session actvity is very important as it is mostly commercial trade and when it is one sided we can predict that it will spill over into the day session.


    In the graphics below the day bars I will show a couple of examples from our Market Heads Up Display HUD that accurately prediced the day session several hours before it opened.


    Here is the day chart - note how often the nite session leaves a tail and how often that tail sets the tone of the day session.
  • I don't necessarily have any insight into this subject, but I can share a tool that might be useful in the analysis. Our Zig Zag indicator has been enhanced with an option to label each leg with a variety of statistics including Volume (that traded during leg), Delta (of volume traded during leg), and Delta Per Price, among others. I think Delta Per Price might be especially helpful as it takes the delta of all volume that traded in each leg/trend, and divides it by the price change of each leg/move. So for instance, 100,000 contracts may have traded during an uptrend/leg that moved up 5 points or 20 ticks/prices (on ES)...with a delta of +10,000. So the delta per price would be +10,000/20 or 500.0. It essentially measure the average positive delta required to move the price up one tick.


    Here is an example using a Zig Zag with minimum price change of $3 (each leg/move is at least a $3 move):

Trading with Market Profile

Frank, thanks for your reply and your suggestion. My goal was to provide some continuity in the market analysis across two trading days. I wasn't trying to explain different MP concepts separately, but your suggestion is a good one.

First let me say that there are many ways for traders to view the markets and they can all be correct. It all depends on one's timeframe. For example, take a look at three different ways that one can see balance areas in a daily bar chart of the S&P. I suspect you were viewing the market as shown in Chart 1 whereas I was viewing the market as shown in Chart 3. In addition, others can break up the market into even smaller balance areas by looking at intraday charts. That's a personal choice based on how one wants to trade.

Trading with Market Profile-balanceareas.gif

The chart below provides a little more detail as to how I was seeing the market. I won't elaborate too much in text since I think the annotations should be sufficient.

Trading with Market Profile-balancedetails.gif

One of the key concepts in my posts is that balance areas form in all timeframes and the high and low of those balance areas are key reference levels. Balance area highs and lows are important because those are areas where change can occur and the longer timeframe can enter the market. By change, I mean that a market can break out of a balance area and transition into a trending market. Breakouts provide the best opportunities for traders. They are the toughest trades to do, at least for me, but they're the best in terms of potential profit. If the market looks above/below a balance area high/low and fails, usually you get a dynamic move in the opposite direction. The point is good trades usually develop in these areas. When a market is approaching a balance area high or low, especially the first time, I would look to fade it, generally speaking. If the market is accepted within a previous balance area, the destination is usually to the opposite end. The market doesn't have to do that, of course. So that wa

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mktprofile

Building An Index of Market Profile Concepts

If you take all 30-min pit session bars historically and compare them to that days final median 30-min bar RANGE, what you find is that the 1st and 2nd 30-min bars are a lot wider (more range) than the rest --- except the last two.

That said, it is statistical fact that once you get out 4-7 bars into the day, the market will always spend time overlapping prices -- even on very strong directional days. But you will have serious drawdowns trying to fade a market that is showing extreme strength in the opening 30 mins that is leaving the prior days range. As a general rule, you want to save your fade plays for days when the market is not leaving the prior days range 'early in day' (this is one thing of many to consider)... This is a quick adjustment that you have to make in real-time but its crucial.

Note that in a strong trending type of day (I didn't say 'trend day' -- I just mean a good directional MORNING move) -- many times ANY price that you got during the opening 30-mins that 'goes with' the flow of B will be a profitable trade. I am not saying 'go with every opening thrust' -- not at all --- I am just saying to be cognizant of a market that is driving OUT of previous days range. Note that yesterday, the market did a wide bar DOWN in the opening 30 mins --- but it wasn't even close to exiting the prior days range. In that example, the market reversed and drove up.

Regarding the 'initial balance' --- the size of the opening bar and the amount of extension beyond the opening bar is the I.B. As a baseline --- expect this 'violation' to be 4-20 ticks. So a 6.5 pt opening bar and a 2 point extension beyond that makes for a 8.5 pt IB (note that if you get an 'outside 2nd bar' will be just the size of the 2nd bar).

I guess what I am getting at is this --- you are trying to figure out whether to 'go with' the opening momentum --- or fade it. At this time of day, you expect some good range in the bars (some of best in the day) -- but you don't know if market is going to trend for a bit --- or not. You know that in

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mktprofile

Tired Of Parking..Where Do I Start - DNForum - Domain Sales, Domain Forum, Domain Appraisals, Domain Registrars

  • I too am a BANS user on several domains... with a bit of elbow grease - meaning spending 8-12 hours optimizing the categories that are BANS default, you can make pretty good money through them.


    I have a blog that I have outlined step by step ways to build a store from nothing to a finished product. where I have documented the process... on everything you need, what steps to take etc.


    All in all I still only have about 12-15 optimized BANS stores up myself, but this is due to a family emergency I am dealing with... I still have about 150 more of my own to get done.


    I have also started using associate-o-matic on one site, but not quite there as far as it making anything yet.


    The BANS stores dont do too well when left in their raw form, all you are doing is duplicating what hundreds of others are doing... point, click, install, wait and hope = no money! If you want to make money with them, you MUST make the menu tree different and optimize it!


    Earnings have grown to low $XXXX per month in less than 6 months on the 12-15 sites.


    PM if you need more info.


    Also - I am STILL trying to find a way to monetizxe 300 Real EState related domains without PPC. If anyone has any ideas, please let me know. MLS feeds or FSBO feeds on a city specific level would be wonderful!


    Mark
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