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02 Nov 08

"Class Politics" Richard Florida, Creative Class Blog

Fascinating (possibly scary?) piece by Florida on how Obama's win could still fan the flames of an ugly backlash from the right that may be more convulsive and destructive than the current economic / financial meltdown. Florida factors in some data around demographic changes due to the creative economy (linked to democratic/ Obama politics), to paint a picture of a potentially very divided country.

www.creativeclass.com/...class-politics-3 - Preview

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When people like Colin Powell say Mr. Obama is a “transformational figure,” they’re suggesting that an Obama administration can somehow heal the deep divisions within the American electorate and move the country forward, the way Franklin D. Roosevelt did during the Great Depression. And certainly projected Democratic majorities in Congress make that kind of transformation appear plausible.
I wish that would happen. But I doubt it will, and the reason is simple: The divisions run too deep. The realignment that propelled and kept FDR in office is not happening today. American politics is distinguished today by shifting electoral coalitions, candidate-centered elections, and what some political scientists call de-alignment. America isn’t just suffering from political polarization, but a burgeoning economic divide and class war.
Since then, 20 million jobs in the creative sector have been created, and the ranks of what I call the creative class have grown to 40 million - nearly a third of the work force. That group has become powerful in American politics, and it is squarely behind Mr. Obama. New York Times columnist David Brooks recently reported that Republicans have all but lost creative professionals working in law, medicine, and high technology.
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- Republican strategists have exploited this shift to their party’s advantage, beginning with the ever-prescient Kevin Phillips’s identification of the “silent majority” of white working-class voters in 1968.
  The rise of the creative economy generated a shift in social values. Tolerance, diversity, and self-expression became prized. Diversity and self-expression became necessary for the creative economy to flourish and function.
  As it grew and became more concentrated in locations such as San Francisco, New York, Seattle, Boston, and Washington D.C. - what we now know as blue America - the working class fell further and further behind. Globalization shipped jobs overseas, while institutional supports that led to higher working-class incomes during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s - powerful U.S. companies and powerful unions - were simultaneously being undercut. The great genius of former Bush political strategist Karl Rove was to seize upon the church as the one remaining constant in the lives of working Americans and to use it to his political organizational advantage.
- This class divide is overlaid on America’s economic and political geography, with the U.S. economy being driven by centers of innovation such as San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and Washington D.C.; finance, entertainment, and media cities such as New York and Los Angeles; and university-anchored tech centers such as Austin, Tex., Boulder, Colo., and Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
- These class divides will only deepen. Fear and anxiety will probably get worse. And a strange kind of reactive populism, much worse than anything we have seen before, could be on the rise. Unless Mr. Obama can fashion a broad, inclusive appeal that extends the benefits of the creative economy to working and service economies, the bitterness he himself acknowledged, in a moment of candor, will grow deeper.

08 Oct 08

The New Investment Rules For China | The China Vortex

A fascinating article that makes me think about cultures (in the sense of how Ali Dastmalchian talked about global cultures at his presentation on 10/6/08), and how in turn different cultures will react to crisis and/ or enable some strategies while frustrating others.

www.chinavortex.com/...investment-rules-china - Preview

china financial_crisis usa globalization business

As I have said earlier, China and the US are two sides to the same coin, and it pays to look at them as one economy, as this Newsweek article does. It goes without saying that this crisis will have a profound effect on China, and I’m not optimistic about the capability of the Chinese central government in Beijing to deal with it as quickly as it should.
There is a simple reason for this: stimulating consumer spending depends, to a large extent, on the rollout of a national healthcare system; this is something which Beijing has tried to do since the early 90s, all without success. When it comes to the lack of a national healthcare system, the US and China are in the same boat, and the national governments are equally ineffective.
- That's the first time I've heard / read this: interesting idea, that lack of national health care is a retardant to consumer spending stimulus... Of course one could argue that investing in national health care is ...well, *investing*, and that w/out investment, a country goes to hell. - on 2008-10-08
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- Avoid Shanghai and Beijing. Both have excellent universities, and Beijing has central government ministries while Shanghai is the commercial capital of China. In IT, companies have preferred to hire from Tsinghua for smart technology people. But there are major problems with both cities. First of all, staff turnover is too high, and costs are too high.
- And when it comes to Internet/IT, I say that the Internet already has become a platform and there is plenty of talent around. Do you really need expensive people from the very best universities in China who may prove a pain to manage? If you don’t, second-tier people who are reliable and don’t ask for huge pay raises are good enough, and maybe even better. When hiring local talent, look for tortoises, not hares.
- Your most loyal people will be the ones you hired and trained on the job. They will also be the ones who understand local market and conditions and connections.
- Instead of going to Beijing and Shanghai, look at the 20 major city markets in China if you are thinking of selling to Chinese consumers.
- If you want to get into China under the radar (in my opinion, always a wise strategy), these are places to look at very seriously. If you need knowledge workers, as in programming or game production or pharmaceuticals, pay special attention to the local universities, and partnering with them to hire their graduating students.
- If you can help and offer investments which create jobs and upgrade the skill force, you are in a good position. Be sure to get your money and profit back within 15 years (by 2023). That is because if you are selling to Chinese consumers, you are selling to the current group who are in their 20s - 40s. By 2023, China’s demographics will fall off a cliff because of the one-child policy, and they will be in savings mode instead of spending mode.
- When it comes to modernization, China is crossing a 30-foot chasm with a 20-foot rope, with each foot representing one year. China’s hardware development and infrastructure are very impressive and are the most modern in the world, as the Beijing Olympics showed. The hardest part to modernize is peoples’ mentality as the tainted milk scandal has shown. China’s aging demographics do not give it enough time to cross the chasm, so Chinese will get old before they get modern. When that happens, China will look like a bigger version of Japan, and will have all the problems Japan has today. Just hope that China has a national healthcare system in place by then.
- Rural infrastructure is less developed, and so far, the Chinese government has made all the wrong moves in rural development by not supporting the development of rural collectives for the farmers.
- This organization is partly responsible for the Sanlu tainted milk scandal, and is copied from the US. But the US has a surplus of land and shortage of farmers, while China has a shortage of land and excess of farmers!

11 Mar 08

How to marry a Canadian - Crosscut Seattle -

"When a Seattle writer tried to recruit some north-of-the-border help in her fight against cancer, she learned how different our countries really are." Seattle cancer blogger Jeanne Sather writes about the differences between Canadian and American health care (including, especially, cost, and access to). Her blog, The Assertive Cancer Patient (http://www.assertivepatient.com/) provides real time details and updates.

www.crosscut.com/...How+to+marry+a+Canadian - Preview

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29 Dec 07

Book review: Hyper-Border: The Contemporary U.S.-Mexico Border and Its Future

Regine Debatty's review of *Hyper-Border: The Contemporary U.S.-Mexico Border and Its Future* by Fernando Romero includes many interesting extracts. Eg.: (p.76) At present there are more American border patrol agents than soldiers in Afghanistan.; (p.106) In 2004, remittances to Mexico equaled $16.6 billion, in 2005 they reached $20 billion and in 2006 they rose higher to $24 billion becoming the second source of US dollars after oil exports.; (p.175) ... most economists [agree?] that immigrants actually represent a net positive for the economy, meaning that overall, at the federal level, they pay more in taxes than they acquire in services. Whether they are sales, gasoline, property, or social security taxes, as people residing in the United States, undocumented immigrants contribute to the tax system just as legal workers do.; (p.193) Although Mexico is the number one source of immigrants into the U.S., it ranks seventh in foreign enrollments in U.S. universities.; (p.226) Nearly 40,000 people who live in Tijuana commute every weekday across the border to work in San Diego and surrounding areas.

www.we-make-money-not-art.com/...009871.php - Preview

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23 Dec 07

Harvard Institute of Politics Poll Find Youth Favor Obama, Giuliani

- so much for the myth of disengaged youth; most are paying attention, and they're not happy with what the traditiional parties are dishing up. I think this also indicates unhappiness with the parties' neglect of urban issues.

www.ksg.harvard.edu/...120507_iop_survey.htm - Preview

2008_elections giuliani harvard obama political_parties politics polls usa youth

Another of the poll’s key findings shows only three in ten (30%) young people believe that the Democratic and Republican parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, with a plurality (37%) saying the two parties are doing such a poor job that a third major party is needed.
- - traditional parties consistently neglect cities and urban needs; that's probably why there's so much dissatisfaction with them among youth - on 2007-12-23
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"The most interesting aspect of the survey relates less to candidate preferences than to the indication that young people are focusing on the issues facing America, and this cohort of nearly 30 million 18-24 year-olds is substantial and likely to have a significant impact in the upcoming election," said IOP Director and former U.S. Representative (R-IA) James A. Leach.
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- Young Democrats still favor U.S. Senator Barack Obama over U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton for President in 2008, particularly “on campus,” while Clinton edges Obama among non-college youth.
- Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still leads challengers among young Republicans, but “undecided” voters and those favoring former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul are growing.
- Nearly two in five young people say the Democratic and Republican parties aren’t representing them well enough; support exists for a major third party candidate.
- Healthcare becomes the second most pressing national issue of concern among young people today.
- While young “Independents” outnumber young Democrats and Republicans, minorities – particularly Hispanics – could grow the Democratic Party in coming years.
  - - hmm, suggests that "identity" politics is still a huge draw and a "unifier," which is really too bad
    - what they should be articulating are issues aroung place/ use of place/ cities/ infrastructure/ competitiveness/ innovation/ urban issues and the need to decrease the economic disparities that exist
    - a country of such huge disparities & economic extremes can't go into the 21st century and come out ahead; too much wasted talent. - on 2007-12-23
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- Young people are politically engaged and looking forward to participating in the 2008 presidential election.
- America’s youth are ready to volunteer on a political campaign that asks them.
- About half of all 18-24 year-olds have volunteered for community service in the last year. I n the last 12 months, forty-eight percent (48%) have volunteered for community service, with nearly six in ten (57%) of those volunteering doing so about once a month or more. Segments of this population most likely to volunteer in their communities are 4-year college (62%) and graduate students (65%), high school students (58%), and supporters of Senator Obama (63%).
  - - wow... that's an interesting angle on Obama's popularity, as well as what he represents to people. Way to go...! - on 2007-12-23
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