Janco Partners' Mike Hickey said that Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV would likely sell 5.8 million units in its first week. Now, in his latest research note on Take-Two, Wedbush Morgan Securites analyst Michael Pachter has issued a similar forecast, predicting that the game will ship six million in its first week and could sell more than nine million during Take-Two's fiscal year, which ends on October 31.
"We estimate that GTA IV is likely to sell over 9 million units during the fiscal year, and think that the company will likely ship 6 million units in its first week, and will sell 3/4 of that amount in a brief period of time. The performance of GTA IV will thus be responsible for more than 100% of Take-Two's earnings for the year, and the game is likely to mask the underperformance of the rest of Take-Two's portfolio," he said. "We think that GTA IV will generate around $450 million of the company's expected $1,073 million publishing revenue this year, and will generate an operating profit of around 30%, or $135 million. At the high end of company guidance, Take-Two will generate operating income of around $130 million, meaning that the game is responsible for 103% of overall company operating profit."
