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13 Nov 09

Japan's government: Out of tune | The Economist

  • discord in the cabinet, and a woeful absence of discussion about the budget next year and beyond, have left many worried.
04 Nov 09

Scotland: Growing calls for tuition fees as universities face funding crisis

  • With unemployment continuing to increase due to the global economic downturn, some Scottish colleges have reported a rise in applications of 300 percent this year.
  • The first year is easy—you start with low hanging fruit. It is once you get into the third or fourth year of consecutive cuts that you are probably going to have to cut things you don’t want to, unless you have made plans in advance.”
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16 Oct 09

The German Left Party and Berlin’s austerity budget

  • Nussbaum’s revised budget involves new debts totalling almost €6 billion. In the meantime, the mountain of debt in Berlin has soared to €60 billion.

  • Gysi shares responsibility for the social decline of Berlin. In the first weeks of his term in office as economics senator in 2001, he rescued the bankrupt Berlin Bank Company with a €23 billion surety. He then moved to cut the juvenile welfare service budget from €400 million to €230 million. These measures were the opening shots in an orgy of cuts to wages, benefits and social gains in the city—all aimed at bailing out the Berlin Bank Company.
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12 Oct 09

FT.com | Brussels Blog | Soaring debt, not Barroso or Lisbon treaty, is EU’s real challenge


  • But just look at the differences between the area’s member-states.  The German debt would be 40 per cent of GDP, the Dutch debt 37 per cent, the Finnish debt 12 per cent.  But the Greek debt would be 150 per cent, the Irish debt 126 per cent and the Portuguese debt 89 per cent.

U.K. Plans Sale to Cut Its Debt - WSJ.com


  • Britain is expected to borrow some £175 billion next year, leaving it with one of the biggest budget deficits in the developed world, projected to be about 14% of the country's gross domestic product

  • Mr. Brown plans to say that this "marks the beginning of a radical program" in which his Labour government will examine what other state assets can be sold.
04 Oct 09

Shilling With Schiller: Newspapers Attempt To Boost The Real Estate Market, Again - By Yasha Levine - The eXiled

  • This gain of 1.2% ain’t much when you consider that 1) the Case/Schiller Index is NOT seasonally adjusted, 2) the increase in demand caused by all the government incentives doled out to new homeowners over the summer, 3) the huge shadow foreclosure inventory that is still restricting supply, and 4) the massive influx of government-backed subprime FHA loans, which made risky loans almost as easy to get as in 2006.
  • Just in the past year, the FHA has taken on $200 billion in new obligations, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Pain in Spain May Linger as Banks Seek to Avoid Property Losses - Bloomberg.com

  • Now they’re using
    strategies reminiscent of the boom times -- 100 percent
    mortgages, low interest rates and free cars -- to sell homes,
    potentially slowing a drop in prices that’s needed to spur
    recovery from Spain’s worst recession in 60 years.

  • Developers say they now have to compete with banks, as well
    as each other, to shift stocks of unsold property.

04 Sep 09

Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs

  • That's a pretty fancy way of saying that basically, the
    US and Europe simply cannot consume as much as they did previously and will
    have to focus more on production for Asian and emerging markets.




    This in turn implies that the earnings of Asian exporters will need to implode
    as their ability to turn profits from the sales of minor widgets to the US and
    Europe will have to disappear over the near term (one to two years), to be
    replaced by gigantic profits of goods to their own consumers over the
    medium-long term (anywhere from three to 10 years).


  • In other words, any debt issued by entities that have no ability to print their
    own currencies - in which hopefully the debt is also denominated - will have to
    confront lower revenues entailed by deflation, which is only partially offset
    by lower borrowing costs.
10 Aug 09

FusterClucked Again: The Commercial Real Estate Crash Is On - By Mr. Walker - The eXiled

  • With the shorter term financing used on the commercial real estate world, Paulie needs his principal back a lot sooner.
  • That article states that $400 billion of such loans are coming due in 2009 and that between now and 2012 the total will be $1.8 trillion, roughly half of which are owned by banks. Delinquency rates have doubled in the past year and the values of the underlying properties are, obviously, in freefall.
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Russia Beats California as Default Swaps Favor BRICs (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

  • As the U.S. and U.K.
    borrow record amounts to fund bank bailouts and stimulus,
    Brazil, Russia, India and China have $3 trillion in reserves, up
    19 percent from January 2008 and now 43 percent of the worldwide
    total, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
  • Turkey, the
    world’s 17th largest economy, has $67 billion in foreign
    reserves, more than the U.S.’s $41.9 billion, Bloomberg data
    show.
28 Jun 09

Government parties plan drastic austerity measures

  • The government parties are intent on recouping these sums through drastic savings measures. Fearful of the reaction from the electorate, they are refraining from putting forward any concrete proposals until the federal election to the Bundestag. In utterly cynical fashion, Steinbrück told the press conference earlier this week: “I will not make any announcement here that could bring turmoil into politics before September 27.”

  • The Süddeutsche Zeitung concluded, “Due to the financial situation the next electoral period will be characterized by a struggle over resources that the country has not seen for a long time.”
25 Jun 09

China’s exports plunge further

  • China’s May export figure was worse than the 22.6 percent fall in April and is the seventh consecutive month of decline. The slide of exports is the worst since the data is collected in 1995. Imports also fell 25.2 percent year-on-year in May—a further indication of weakening exports as China imports large amounts of semi-finished goods and components for re-export.

    Other Asian exporters have been hit by the recession in the US, Europe and Japan. South Korea and Taiwan saw 25-30 percent annual falls in exports and imports in May and Japanese exports tumbled by 40.9 percent.

  • Since last September, 23 million rural migrant workers have been laid off, mainly in export industries
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16 Jun 09

Brazil: more dependent than ever - Le Monde diplomatique - English edition



  • In the last quarter of 2008, Brazil’s industrial output dropped by 19%. Eight hundred thousand workers lost their jobs between October and January (nearly 1% of the workforce), and that doesn’t even begin to take account of job losses in the informal economy, which employs around 40% of Brazilian workers. Half a million Brazilians have found themselves back in poverty or extreme poverty.



  • Imports leapt by 52.7% between the first and second half of 1994. As a result, many Brazilian businesses closed or had to go into partnership with foreign companies, which accounted for 70% of Brazilian mergers and acquisitions between 1995 and 1999. Somewhat amazed by the brazenness of this denationalisation programme, the staunchly pro-liberalisation Veja magazine observed that “the history of capitalism has rarely seen the transfer of control on such a scale in such a short period” (7).

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02 Jun 09

Geithner Lifts Ass For Chinese Masters - By Team eXiled - The eXiled

  • Today, Geithner got his first chance to show off his new “harder line” in his trip to China, as reported in Bloomberg:


    In his prepared remarks, Geithner repeated the U.S. desire for a more flexible yuan. He has avoided a showdown on the issue, declining to repeat comments he made in written remarks to lawmakers after his Senate confirmation hearing in January that China was “manipulating” its currency.

  • It gets even sexier. Last decade, Geithner, working in the Treasury under Clinton, led the disastrous IMF bailouts of the Asian Crisis victims, forcing them to cut budget deficits by raising taxes and cutting social programs (in other words, doing what it took to take care of the Western banks that owned their debts).


    Today, the Chinese are demanding–and Geithner is acquiescing–that we do for them what we made Thailand, Indonesia and the rest do for us:


21 May 09

Britain's debt outlook lowered to negative - Yahoo! Finance

  • S&P said the downward revision reflects a more cautious view of how quickly the country's finances can be repaired and that its projections incorporate new estimates of the cost of the government's bailout of the banking sector. It now esimtates that the government's net debt burden will rise to nearly 100 percent of economic output by 2013, way more than the government is currently projecting.

19 May 09

Political Crisis Deepens in Britain


  • Now there is a deluge of non-stop revelations about MPs claiming money for second mortgages, swimming pool maintenance and all manner of luxuries, while they berate the unemployed for scrounging off the state.


  • But to press on with their austerity cuts immediately will not save them either. It will push the working class onto the industrial plain and unleash a new stage in the class struggle in Britain

15 May 09

Problems with the German economic model | The export model sputters | The Economist

  • Germany will not deliberately surrender its position as the world’s top exporter of goods, says Bert Rürup, a former head of the government’s committee of economic “wise men” now at AWD Holding, a financial-advice firm. But its current-account surplus may fall as profligates like the United States and Britain consume less and export more.
  • Some international trade “will disappear forever,” says Marek Belka, director of the IMF’s European department. Vehicles, machinery and chemicals account for nearly two-thirds of exports, a narrow base for the prosperity of the world’s fourth-largest economy.
01 Apr 09

Britain: Brown’s fiscal stimulus no longer an option for G20 summit

  • The impact on the markets of the UK's deepening debt was seen the day after King spoke to the committee. Long-term government bonds, or "gilts," were put up for sale and failed to find enough buyers, the first time this has happened in 13 years.
  • the European Union yesterday attempted to re-inject some fiscal discipline into the system by insisting France and Germany cut their budget deficits to below 3 percent of GDP by 2012, and Britain by 2013."
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