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24 Sep 09

Technology Review: Blogs: arXiv blog: The Evolution of Overconfidence

www.technologyreview.com/...24162 - Preview

personality confidence

If overconfidence leads to global disasters such as the collapse of banks and world wars, how could it have evolved? Now researchers have an answer.
The puzzle about overconfidence is its ubiquity. Many studies have shown that most people have an exaggerated sense of their own capabilities, an illusion of control over events and an invulnerability to risk. Most people, for example, believe they are above average drivers, a statistical impossibility. We are all overconfident in one way or another.
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- In fact, if the potential reward is at least twice as great as the cost of competing, then overconfidence is the best strategy. In fact, overconfidence is actually advantageous on average, because it boosts ambition, resolve, morale and persistence. In other words, overconfidence is the best way to maximise benefits over costs when risks are uncertain.
  
  That's an interesting insight. Experimental psychologists have long known of the role of overconfidence in conflict situations and yet have been unable to explain its origin.
- Their model implies that optimal overconfidence increases with the magnitude of uncertainty. So the greater the risk, the more overconfident individuals should become.
  
  Johnson and Fowler use that finding to predict that overconfidence will be particularly prevalent in domains where the perceived value of a prize sufficiently exceeds the expected costs of competing.
  - The more wit, the less courage - on 2009-09-24
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- They highlight several domains but perhaps the most obvious and potentially dangerous are international relations, where events are complex, distant, involve foreign cultures and languages, new technologies such as the internet bubble and the banking industry where complex financial instruments abound. Any of that sound familiar?

The Kinds of Employees You Want to Hire - BusinessWeek

www.businessweek.com/...ca20090922_894897.htm - Preview

personality

There are two kinds of employees. Some believe they can make things happen, and the others believe that things happen to them. The first group believes that the outcome of their life and career is more or less in their own hands, and they wouldn't have it any other way. The other group takes more of a Forrest Gump approach: They sit around and wait for a bus to take them somewhere.
Judge and his colleagues have shown overwhelmingly that employees who feel like they control the events in their lives more than events control them and generally believe that they can make things turn out in their favor end up doing better on nearly every important measure of work performance. They sell more than other employees do. They give better customer service. They adjust better to foreign assignments. They are more motivated. They bring in an average of 50% to 150% more annual income than people who feel less control over the fate of their careers. Not surprisingly, these employees also like their jobs a lot more than the Gumps do.
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- After all, if you think you're special, what happens when your superior or your board tells you about the areas in which you're falling short? Worse yet, what happens when the self-described superstar finds himself laid off or responsible for a division with tanking revenues? In other words, what happens when people who believe they are capable of controlling the world find themselves in an economy that is out of control?
  
  It turns out that this is when the true stars shine. Tough times weed out both those with low self-evaluations and those poseurs who only pretend to have a high self-evaluation—the narcissists. Judge finds that only about one in five people with a high core self-evaluation also scores high on measures of narcissism. That's probably why researchers continually find that those with a high self-evaluation do so much better in turbulent times compared with those with a dimmer view of their abilities, and compared with those narcissists with fragile egos.
- Confident, Not Narcissistic: There is an important difference between having a high self-evaluation and being a narcissist. Does the employee pitch in when teammates need help, or bad-mouth co-workers they view as threats? Are they receptive or defensive when you give them feedback?

26 Feb 08

10 less-than-great personality traits of entrepreneurs » 16th letter » Blog Archive

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entrepreneur personality startups

17 Apr 07

How to Go From Introvert to Extrovert

www.stevepavlina.com/...go-from-introvert-to-extrovert - Preview

extrovert personality

Like many introverts I was pressured by others to socialize more. But I largely
resisted this pressure, partly because I enjoyed being an introvert. I often
viewed extroverts as lacking in intelligence and depth, and I can’t say I wanted
to count myself among them.

02 Mar 06

How to Exercise an Open Mind - WikiHow

wiki.ehow.com/Exercise-an-Open-Mind - Preview

personality

Simply put, all one needs to grow his/her brain is to do unique, random, different, and ridiculous things as often as possible. One hour of increased brain activity via thinking a lot or experiencing new stimuli can make you smarter, more energetic, more creative, and more sociable. Here are some of the endless number of activities that can stimulate your brain. The one key ingredient is to have an open mind.