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Mixpanel is a real-time analytics company whose mission is to help the world learn about their data. We analyze over 2 billion transactions every single month. We help these companies learn about their data every single day: EA, Quora, Airbnb, Bebo, Slide, TravelPod, Bittorrent, Klout, Hunch, Posterous, etc.

 

  Expectations

 

Based on the sales and ranks of our very own Weather HD, we estimate that the Top 1,000 iPad paid applications are making about $372,000 per day, which sums up to about $136 million per year. This figure is based on there being only 500,000 iPads in the market, and is accounting only for the application sales in the United States. If the iPad App Store were to be like the iPhone’s, then 40-60% of the sales would occur internationally, so on average that figure would rise to become $272 million per year.

We believe this to be a conservative estimate. If the iPad were to enjoy a lucrative growth as the iPhone’s, which rose from 100 million downloaded applications in the first 2 months to 4 billion 19 months after, we can easily see the iPad’s App Store becoming a $1 billion per year market in 2 years.

Closing Remarks

Special thanks got to Applyzer, the iPhone and iPad analytics company, for providing us with the Top 100 Paid and Grossing lists of the iPad App Store for the past two weeks.

The most powerful philosophy of marketing I’ve heard is from my hero Seth Godin, and I think it can be summed up as this: 

 You’ll know when you’re on to something special, because people will love it so much they’ll tell everyone. 

 If people aren’t telling their friends about it yet, don’t waste time marketing it. Instead, keep improving until they are.

But now the goal is to create something absolutely remarkable, until customer word-of-mouth generates a buzz. 

 And that’s only limited by your creativity and persistence, not budget. 

-Before your product is listed on an affiliate network, you need to put down a significant investment- mid to high $XX,XXX as a prepayment to the network

-Especially for a webapp, there could be issues of rampant fraud-affilites using VCCs to sign up and so on- this is something you will need to be proactive about filtering out

-Products that do well on affiliate networks have a large target market- if your webapp is niche affiliates won't bother to take the time to set up campaigns to promote your product

Regards to fraud, that's definitely a real issue.

Regards to niche, from what I've learned from doing some affiliate work and research, niche is extremely important and much desired by affiliates - even though my product isn't narrowly targeted - just saying..

If you want to do viral marketing, you can try to come up with a viral ad, but you'll probably fail. You're better off building the viral right into the product, creating a product that spreads because you designed it that way.

Viral marketing only works well when you plan for it, when you build it in, when you organize your offering to be spreadable, interesting and to work better for everyone involved when it spreads. If I don't benefit from spreading it, why should I spread it? I won't. If you don't benefit from your users spreading the idea, it might spread, but it won't help you much. So both elements have to be present.

The "build a great product and they will come" myth is bullshit 99% of the time (unless you have a built in marketing engine-- SEO or viral). Balsamiq won the same reason that 37s did (and JoelonSoftware for that matter)... They had a great story, told it well, and the story happened to resonate/be interesting to their exact target market (web geeks / entrepreneurs).

Bravo!

But try to build great software for supply chain management, or managing a beauty parlor and let me know how "everything else will follow" there. There's a reason that SalesForce.com (which, arguably, has/had a great product) has spent 60-70% of their topline on sales and marketing.

• Send to friends and family - Everyone on the NMC team sent the project to their friends and family, encouraging them to pass along to others.  This was kind of a light launch that let us fix any problems that arose, knowing that the visitors would "love us no matter what" as my grandma told me when her district's screenshot didn't appear correctly.  This led to a good first wave of traffic and gave the voting some momentum, encouraging others to vote when they got to the site.
• Distribute to Favorite Social Networks - For this stage, we all posted on the social networks that we spend the most time on, which are still composed of mainly friends, but more distant than in stage 1.  We each posted the link as our Facebook status, Tweeted it (follow me for more updates on the site), put up as our Gchat away message, and a couple more.  This round was really successful, leading to several re-tweets (including from complete strangers), and getting picked up by a North Carolina newspaper's blog.
• Email out to list of political contacts - As a political web design firm, we have a pretty sizable amount of consultants and campaigns that we work with, who we knew would be interested in the site.  We sent them all individual emails, encouraging them to try the site out.  This resulted in some good feedback and even a call from a contact that we hadn't spoke to in months who wanted to hire us to work on a new site (nice!).  In addition to just our personal political clients, we also sent out an email to each contact from the campaigns featured on the site, letting them know that they had been highlighted and to let us know if they had any feedback or changes for us.

• Continue Blogging about the project - Over the next few days, we'll be continually blogging about the project, the programming behind it, and it's coverage.  By continuing to create good content about the site, visitors to our main site are likelier to go to it, it can spark interest in different web communities, and will more likely get indexed by Google.
• Submitting to popular news aggregators - This is the stage where we really try and take the views to the next level.  We'll be submitting to Digg, Reddit, Hacker News, and some others.  If it gains steam, these sites could drive some serious traffic.
• Reaching out to industry decision makers - In this stage, we'll reach out to the big time players, such as Politico, large newspaper blogs, and other relevant sites.  Hopefully, they will like the idea, see that it has already been fairly popular, and write up the site.  This would result in huge traffic and give the site a lot of credibility.  This would be the ultimate win.